Here’s Why We May Be Heading For An Early Election

Brenda from Bristol, look away now.

The ordinary woman in the street who became an internet meme when she declared “you’re joking – not another one” after being told about the 2017 snap election could well be in for another disappointment.

Speculation is mounting at Westminster that Andy Burnham could decide to go to the country within months, and possibly weeks, as he seeks to secure his own electoral mandate from the country.

Although he has said he has no intention of having an election before 2029, in politics everything is off the table until it isn’t.

The new prime minister has certainly seemed like a man in a hurry this week, announcing a raft of eye-catching policies designed to win over voters by showing that his government is determined to tackle the cost of living crisis.

On his second day as PM, he announced that VAT will be removed from electricity bills from October until April, saving the average household £45.

The following day, he re-instated the £2 bus fare cap scrapped by Rachel Reeves after Labour came to power.

And on Thursday, the week one policy blitz concluded with a 20% cut in business rates for pubs, clubs and live music venues – as HuffPost UK had revealed 48 hours earlier.

Speaking to journalists in the No.10 garden on Monday just an hour after officially taking office, Burnham said: “We just want to do some things that people will feel, and feel quite quickly.

“It won’t solve everything, it won’t take all of the pressure off, but it just shows the direction of travel and we’re serious about helping them out.”

The early signs are that voters are happy with what they’ve seen so far.

A succession of opinion polls in recent days have shown Labour closing the gap on Reform UK, with one even putting the parties neck-and-neck.

Proponents of the early election theory say the policy hyperactivity, allied to an apparent Burnham bounce in the polls for Labour, all point towards the PM deciding to cut and run.

Further fuel was added to the fire on Thursday when Labour seized two Reform council seats in their Essex heartlands.

Pollster Luke Tryl of More in Common observed: “Obviously important not to read too much into individual council by elections, but Labour will be pleased to start by winning two seats from Reform in an area that has proven particularly tricky for them in past 18 months.”

It was also surely no coincidence that Burnham chose to publicise his business rate cut policy by enjoying a pint and mingling with punters at The Hare pub in the Essex town of Harlow.

“This is to me our heritage,” the prime minister said. “It’s working class culture. “

The message to Reform was clear – geographically and politically, there are no longer any no-go zones for a Labour prime minister.

A Labour insider who believes an early election is “likely” told HuffPost UK: “It just makes sense, doesn’t it?

“You do some stuff early on to get a boost, then you ask for permission to do more of it before the other parties are ready.”

A Labour MP added: “An early election is certainly plausible. Hopefully it won’t be next year. but I am doing a fundraiser in the autumn to prepare.”

It would also mean that Burnham is no longer tied to an election manifesto he did not stand on, with its red lines on tax and strict fiscal rules.

A Labour election victory at some point in the next 12 months – this October or next May have been mooted as potential options – would also give Burnham a full five-year term in which to carry out his stated aim of changing the economic model which he believes has held Britain back for 40 years.

Such a move would not come without huge risk, however.

Despite the ongoing woes of Nigel Farage and Reform more generally, the party is still ahead and polling at around 25% in the vast majority of opinion polls.

Kemi Badenoch’s renaissance as Tory leader is also a consideration, though she still has some way to go to repair the damage done to her party’s brand by 14 years of hapless government.

Inevitably, many Labour MPs with small majorities – including some of those now sitting around Burnham’s cabinet table – will lose their seats, even in the event of a Burnham victory.

There is also the not-inconsiderable chance that the gamble may backfire and Labour could lose, despite currently enjoying a 156-seat Commons majority.

For a man who has spent his entire adult life pursuing his dream of becoming prime minister, to throw it all away within months of achieving it would be an abject humiliation.

That is one of the main reasons why many at Westminster reject the idea of an early election.

One senior Labour figure told HuffPost UK there was “no chance” of Burnham calling one.

“This guy is a hundred times more indecisive than Gordon,” the source said.

That was a reference to former PM Gordon Brown, who famously changed his mind about going to the country shortly after entering Downing Street in 2007.

Three years later, Labour lost the general election to David Cameron’s Conservative Party.

On the steps of Downing Street last Monday, Burnham said: “I will bring forward a new plan for Britain, a 10-year plan, laying out a path from where we are now to where I believe we all want Britain to be, wherever we’re coming from, whatever party we support.”

To see that through to fruition, he would need two full parliamentary terms in office.

Given he is unlikely to ever be as popular with the public as he is at the moment, now might be a good time to go for that first five-year mandate.

As he officially opened the new No.10 North campus in Manchester, on Friday, Burnham said it “might be the best day of my life”.

Calling, and winning, a general election, would surely knock that off the top spot.

Listen to Commons People, the podcast that makes politics easy. Every week, Kevin Schofield and Kate Nicholson unpack the week’s biggest stories to keep you informed. Join us for straightforward analysis of what’s going on at Westminster.