Is Nigel Farage Starting To Crack Under Pressure?

Nigel Farage has not had an easy few days.

Fresh from Reform’s loss to the Greens in the Gorton and Denton by-election, the party waded head-first into debates around the UK’s involvement – or lack thereof – in Donald Trump’s war against Iran.

The party leader initially insisted Britain should “do all we can” to support the operation, saying: “The gloves need to come off, we need to accept that we are part of this with the Americans and the Israelis.”

Some senior party members, like his deputy Richard Tice and Reform mayor of Greater Lincolnshire Andrea Jenkyns, quickly backed him.

But top Tory defector Robert Jenrick, now Reform’s Treasury spokesperson, said it was not necessary for Britain to join the bombing – exposing clear splits in the party’s position.

Then, in a major U-turn on Tuesday, Farage told reporters: “If we can’t even defend Cyprus, let’s not get ourselves involved in another foreign war.”

Farage’s sudden change of heart followed a spike in global oil prices, sparking fears of higher mortgage rates, petrol prices and inflation.

Polls indicated a majority (59%) of Brits did not support joining the war, either.

During the same press conference, Farage also hit out at Sky News’ Beth Rigby, after she pointed out that Reform councils have not delivered on their promise to cut council tax.

He angrily shouted: “Wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong! Never once in the county campaign, including here in Derbyshire, did I ever say we would cut council tax.”

Farage insisted that Reform’s “national literature” called for an overall cut to taxes, not to council taxes.

And on Friday, he adopted a more defeatist tone, saying he wished his party “hadn’t bothered” to take minority control of the bankrupt Worcestershire Council Council.

Reform had to hike council tax by almost 9% in the area, one of the largest increases in the area’s history, to balance the books.

To rub salt in the wound, just seven days ago, Labour beat Reform with its first council by-election gain in almost a year in Durham County Council.

Farage somehow found time to fight with pollsters, too.

He attacked YouGov after the company’s surveys suggested his party had lower public support compared to other polls.

He claimed it is “plainly deceptive” that more is not known about their methods and called for transparency around modelling assumptions.

It’s worth noting that YouGov’s latest poll put the party on 23%, still four percentage points above the Conservatives.

More In Common’s director Luke Tryl called the attacks on YouGov “unwarranted and unfair”.

Writing on X, he said: “They’re a gold standard in our business, have a great track record and the rest of the industry learns so much from them. Sometimes pollsters get different results from each other, that’s a good thing [and] shows we aren’t herding!”

When approached by HuffPost UK, Reform rebuffed claims this week has been stressful, pointing out they are polling at 30% nationally according to More In Common.

A source pointed out they had three sold out rallies this week with thousands of attendees and deployed the “lowest council tax rises in the country” with an average of 4.32%.

The party claimed it had managed to get greater transparency from YouGov, too.

But questions remain around the way Farage has reacted to scrutiny this week,

Savanta’s political director, Chris Hopkins, told HuffPost UK that Farage was reading off “the Trumpian playbook” by “reacting with hostility to scrutiny and blaming everyone but himself for his party’s fall in momentum in the opinion polls”.

The pollster added: “This week he’s even turned his ire directly towards us pollsters where, not for the first time, he publicly challenges polling figures that he doesn’t seem to like.”

Current predictions suggest Reform is on course to win the most seats when voters next head to the polls, though it is still expected to be shy of an overall majority.

Farage will therefore be under a microscope in the run-up to the next general election.

Hopkins said: “The longer Reform stay at the forefront of British politics, the greater the scrutiny on Farage will be, and if his temperament is being questioned now, years away from a general election, it’ll be interesting to see how he’ll react to supporter expectation and the bright lights of an election campaign.”

The pollster warned that there is also a “general sentiment” that Reform may have peaked after more than a year leading the polls.

“The major challenge for Farage and his party will be to still be sitting atop of the pile when the music stops, especially when so much can change so quickly in British politics,” he said.

A Labour insider said it was clear that “Farage can’t deal with the pressure”.

They added: “The wheels have well and truly fallen off the bandwagon this week, the cracks are beginning to show.”

A Green Party source also said: “Reform were able to play on easy mode, presenting themselves as outsiders to a failing Labour government but the mask has slipped.”

It took years for Farage to assert himself within mainstream politics.

He has managed to hold a confident lead in the polls for more than a year, winning over voters on his promise to offer something different from the “establishment” parties.

But, with a general election expected to still be three years away, can the Reform leader keep his cool – and hold his growing party together – in that time?