‘It’ll be more luck than judgment if lights are on this winter’: Stark warning from industry expert as hard-pressed families brace for energy bill surge

Britain’s rush to Net Zero means it will be luck rather than good management if the lights stay on this winter, a leading analyst has warned.

European nations face a series of energy shocks in the coming weeks thanks to the Iran war, record low gas reserves and a water shortage in Norway that threatens to cut crucial exports of hydro-electric power.

But Britain is uniquely vulnerable because the dash for wind and solar power and power station closures mean we now import electricity from our neighbours, said energy consultant and parliamentary adviser Kathryn Porter. 

‘We’ve put ourselves in a position where we can’t meet our own demand, particularly when the wind doesn’t blow,’ she told The Mail on Sunday. ‘We can cope with these risks individually, but combined they are a threat. It means we have to be lucky all the time.

‘Every single winter we’re making this gamble, and eventually we’ll lose. It could well lead to higher electricity prices and, if we finally run out of luck, blackouts.’

Her warning follows Ofgem’s announcement that the energy price cap will rise in October by £60 to £1,723, and experts have predicted that household bills are about to surge.

Shadow energy minister Andrew Bowie said the looming electricity shortage was ‘increasingly dangerous’ and urged Labour to resume drilling in the North Sea.

‘It is a threat to our security and prosperity,’ he told the MoS. ‘We’re more exposed than any other country – it’s deeply worrying.

‘It demonstrates the folly of failing to exploit our own resources. If we got the Jackdaw gas field up and running now, we could be pumping gas by Christmas.’

On Friday it was reported that a decision on whether to open the giant Jackdaw North Sea gas field near Aberdeen is likely to be postponed until after the Holborn And St Pancras by-election.

The seat is likely to be a race between Labour and the Green Party candidate, Zack Polanski.

Meanwhile, a National Audit Office report warns that delays to a £70billion upgrade to the national grid will cost consumers billions of pounds because the transmission system cannot cope with the rapid shift to renewables. The NAO estimates that attempts to decarbonise the grid by 2030 will add £1.9billion a year to bills.

Britain’s plight could get worse if, as feared, neighbouring governments prioritise domestic prices.

Norwegian politicians are already demanding export controls, arguing Norway should not be treated as ‘Europe’s battery’.

‘There’s a danger governments will prioritise their own consumers,’ said Ms Porter, who advises MPs on the All-Party Parliamentary Group for Energy Studies. ‘They will stop exporting any spare capacity and the market will break down.’

This year’s heatwaves mean that reservoir levels are lower than for 20 years – and falling.

Britain’s ageing electricity infrastructure and the move away from traditional power stations to unpredictable wind and solar energy are adding to the problem.

In June, whistleblowers at the National Energy System Operator (Neso) claimed the national grid had been so short of electricity that, at one point, it breached safety limits, prompting an independent inquiry. One

Neso engineer told the MoS that power cuts are now a ‘mathematical certainty’.

He claimed the engineers charged with keeping the grid stable are ‘flying blind’, armed with minimal information, yet obliged to deal with thousands of unpredictable wind and solar generators around the country.

Ms Porter said: ‘If this winter sees another long spell of high pressure – and no wind – like the one we’ve just seen in the summer, then Britain will be in an extraordinarily difficult position.

‘You don’t have to have too many things go against you for the grid to break down. Losing one big power station or one big interconnector would be enough.

‘Who, in the cold light of day, could honestly say this is a sensible way to run things?’