Daily Record Political Editor Paul Hutcheon says the First Minister is only talking to one half of Scotland with his indyref2 call.
John Swinney’s call for immediate indyref2 talks if the SNP wins an outright majority is a high stakes gamble that could easily backfire.
Most opinion polls show the SNP falling short of their leader’s aim, with some snapshots showing him hitting the magic number of 65 MSPs.
Senior SNP sources believe they are within the margin of error for a majority and are focusing their efforts on a small number of seats.
Swinney’s strategy is based on motivating his core vote by squeezing them as hard as possible.
The SNP are not as popular among the pro-indy contingent as he would like and he sees value in making outlandish promises about what will happen after polling day.
The First Minister’s team also believes there is limited value over the three remaining campaign days to woo soft Unionists who are scunnered with Keir Starmer.
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Swinney’s problem is that making further progress with pro-independence voters may be outweighed by losses caused by an inevitable backlash.
Scotland has a sophisticated electorate that knows how to play Holyrood’s voting system.
Pro-UK tactical voting deprived Nicola Sturgeon of a majority in 2021 and could also be the undoing of Swinney
The central concern for Scots is the cost of living crisis, not a second referendum.
They want to feel better off now and would reward any Government for making life more affordable.
Despite this fact, Swinney says he wants an immediate summit with Downing Street on indyref and a day one vote at Holyrood.
His top priority – and you can see this in his first 100 days plan – is constitutional conflict with Westminster.
Swinney is giving an incentive to the anti-SNP majority in every constituency to unite behind the party best placed to stop his indyref2 plan.
His call in today’s Record for talks with Starmer will help the Lib Dems in the Highlands and Labour across the central belt.
It will fire up the Tories in the south of Scotland and encourage a ‘lend your vote’ strategy across the country.
Swinney has insisted he will fight the 2031 election, but even his allies believe this is bluster.
This is his last shot at moving the dial indyref2 and he is resembling like a man in a hurry.
He has given his opponents another reason to stop him in his tracks on Thursday.
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