Keir Starmer Allies Question His Chances For No 10

Even Keir Starmer’s enemies concede that he is a decent man.

So when he says that he won’t voluntarily walk away from 10 Downing Street and will stand in any Labour leadership contest if one is triggered, we should believe him.

His closest supporters insist that, as things stand, he does intend to fight to hang on to a job he’s had for less than two years.

But they also admit privately that the chances of him being able to do so are essentially zero.

The sheer scale of Andy Burnham’s victory in the Makerfield by-election means it is now inevitable that he will succeed Starmer in No.10, one way or another.

He nearly doubled Labour’s majority, and won more than 50% of the vote, in a seat where every council ward was won by Reform UK barely a month ago.

Even Labour MPs who are sceptical about Burnham’s abilities – and there remain many of them – admit that he is the best chance they have of saving their seats at the next general election.

In a call with Labour staff on Friday, Starmer said the party needed to “pull together” and “take the fight” to Reform in the Greater Manchester mayoralty by-election which will take place on July 30 as a result of Burnham’s return to Westminster.

“The one thing we’ve got to avoid doing is plunging our party and our country into chaos by turning on each other and tearing apart our party and our movement,” he said.

“That has never worked. That’s what the last government did. We need to learn that lesson.”

The prime minister’s biggest problem, however, is that while his MPs do indeed want to “pull together”, the vast majority of them now want to do so behind Andy Burnham.

Louise Haigh, one of Burnham’s key lieutenants, said the PM and his would-be successor need to now get their heads together “and agree a managed way forward”.

“Just six weeks ago, the Labour Party was facing existential crisis after the local elections, and it’s quite clear that the prime minister can’t take us into another set of elections,” she told the BBC.

“So I hope he reflects on the result last night in the interests of the country and of the party.

“We want this to be as managed and controlled as possible … we want to avoid a leadership contest if possible, and we hope that we can agree a way forward.”

Despite insisting earlier this week that he has enough support to stand in a leadership contest, HuffPost UK has been told that Wes Streeting is preparing to instead throw his weight behind Burnham.

The pair are said to have agreed a deal which would see the former health secretary given a top job in a Burnham cabinet.

Neither side are commenting publicly, but it is thought an announcement could come early next week.

Meanwhile, home secretary Shabana Mahmood and energy secretary Ed Miliband – who urged Starmer to go after Labour’s trouncing in the May 7 elections – are understood to have repeated that message to him on Friday.

A senior Labour figure said he believed an agreement for a transition of power from Starmer to Burnham will happen.

“I think they’ll get a deal,” he said. “It’s in both their interests and the country’s.

“There’ll be some fucking around next week but Keir will be gone by mid September latest.”

One Starmer ally told HuffPost UK that the PM will eventually have to bow to the inevitable.

He said: “It comes down to what support there is in the Parliamentary Labour Party. I can’t imagine he’ll want to fight if he can only command a limited number of MPs.

“I would imagine there will be plenty of MPs not keen on Andy who will now be thinking ‘is there any point in resisting’, in much the same way as the Tories rowed in behind Boris Johnson before he became leader.

“I wouldn’t read too much into what Keir said this morning. Over the weekend he will be speaking to plenty of people and trying to work out where the support is, and if it just isn’t there, I don’t think he’ll stand in a contest he is bound to lose.”

Another supporter of the PM said: “I really want Keir to fight, but I think Andy becoming prime minister is inevitable.

“I’ve a feeling that he will end up announcing a timetable for his departure.”

Some around Burnham want the PM to announce that he will go in September, in time for their man to take over ahead of the Labour Party conference later that month.

A senior Labour source said Starmer will “do what he always does – try every wrong position before he gets to the obvious one”.

Another party insider added: “Imagine a sitting prime minister being forced out by his own members. Is that the plan? They need to wake up and have a good smell of the coffee beans.”

But one anti-Burnham MP accused him of “arrogance” for believing he can return to Westminster after nearly a decade away and become prime minister without even a leadership contest.

“If I was advising Andy, I’d be telling him to take his time and at least get to know the Labour MPs first,” he said.

“That would also allow him to flesh out his policy platform, because my worry is that he becomes PM and then he starts U-turning and making bad decisions because he has not been tested in advance.”

Andy Burnham is going to be Britain’s next prime minister. The only remaining question is when that might happen.

As Starmer sits down with his closest allies over the next 48 hours, the realisation will surely dawn that it is better for him to leave Downing Street on his own terms rather than being dragged out of the door kicking and screaming.

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