Labour Battles Greens And Reform UK In Key By-Election

A crunch by-election which could decide the future of Keir Starmer will go “down to the wire”, senior Labour figures have admitted as the party faces the prospect of defeat to either the Greens or Reform UK.

Voters in Gorton and Denton go to the polls on Thursday to decide who will replace Andrew Gwynne as their MP.

The former minister, who has quit parliament on health grounds, retained the seat for Labour at the last general election with a majority of nearly 13,500.

But the bookies have made the Green Party odds-on favourites to win, with Reform just behind them in a nail-biting three-way struggle.

More than 1,000 Labour volunteers are expected to take part in a huge “get out the vote” operation on polling day as the party tries desperately to cling on to the seat.

A defeat for Labour, especially if the party were to come third, would be another huge blow for Starmer, who is already under huge pressure from his MPs to turn around the government’s performance after a miserable first 18 months in power.

“We have had thousands of activists out campaigning and are fighting for every vote,” a senior Labour source said.

“We know from conversations on doors that a lot of undecided voters are coming to Labour. Our promise rate is strong. This is going to go down to the wire.”

Although Labour claims the contest is a “straight fight” between them and Reform UK, the most recent polling in the seat suggests it is effectively a dead-heat between those parties and the Greens.

“A vote for the Greens or any candidate other than Labour just risks letting Reform’s Tommy Robinson-backed candidate in through the back door,” said a Labour spokesman. “Our message to voters is clear, don’t risk it, vote for unity over division.

“A vote for the Green Party is, in effect, a vote for Reform. In the last by-election in Runcorn, Labour lost by six votes to Reform because of people voting Green. We cannot risk that being repeated.”

However, a Green spokesman hit back: “The polls and independent tactical voting organisations are clear that voting Green is the only way to ensure Reform don’t win.

“We are confident, and have run a fantastic campaign. The voters in Gorton and Denton have made clear to us that what they what want more than anything is real change.

“Throughout the campaign, voters have tended to see that change as either coming through the Greens or through Reform, but as the campaign has progressed, they have increasingly started to reject Reform’s divisive candidate as just more of the same, and come over to the Greens’ message of hope and change.

“Labour have never been in this since they blocked Andy Burnham. We are in the lead, it is close, but the polls show clearly that if you want to stop Reform, you have to vote Green.”

Labour figures have accused the Greens of “importing the politics of the Indian sub-continent” into the by-election after the party published a campaign video entirely in Urdu aimed at Pakistani-heritage voters.

It shows the prime minister shaking hands with his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi, as well as justice secretary David Lammy with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, and footage of Gaza.

One Labour MP told HuffPost UK: “The Greens are leaning into sectarian politics. It really worries me about the future of the country that we’ve a large political party campaigning in that way.”

But a Green source said: “I speak Urdu and the Urdu video is actually beautifully translated.

“The message of the cost of living crisis which cuts across all Gorton and Denton communities, and the hopeful vision of bringing those communities together, is a highly recommended watch.

“When the Greens talk about being inclusive I can see they really mean it – unlike Labour who only care about their ultra-wealthy donors.”

A Reform spokesman said it still was “all to play for” in the three-horse race.

“The fact that we are even competitive in what is Labour’s sixth safest seat is testament to the hard work of all those involved in our by-election campaign,” a spokesman told HuffPost UK.

“The Greens have been more interested in Gaza than the people of Gorton and Denton and have been campaigning in Urdu whilst the Labour Party have been offering food in exchange for political support.

“They both claim to oppose ‘division’ while organising along communal lines. Only a vote for Reform is a vote to put the people of Gorton and Denton where they belong – first.”