At around 1.20pm today, Eluned Morgan will take the lift from the fifth floor of Ty Hywel, the office block in Cardiff Bay, pass through the Senedd canteen, and head along the glass corridor towards the newly-reopened Senedd Siambr.
Placing her red ringbinder on the lectern in front of her, as she has done since she took over as First Minister on August 6, 2024, she will then face up to an hour of questions, some from her own party, but the trickier ones likely to come from Senedd members in opposing parties.
She is not alone in dreading this session. When you speak to most leaders, they say this is the bit they hate most. The chance to be caught off guard in a gotcha moment with the cameras pointing at you adds a huge level of jeopardy.
She’s previously told WalesOnline how she goes to a tranquil cove, overlooking the sea near her home in St David’s, Pembrokeshire, to sit and prepare on a Sunday for what is seen in the political world at least, as the big door prize.
But there is every chance this could be the last time she will carry that red folder.
As is ever the way, some of the questions she will know, the schedule shows she will be asked about higher education, nuclear regulation, Hywel Dda health board and the ongoing battle to resolve penson inequalities of Allied Steel and Wire workers.
But the follow-ups to those, or the questions she faces from the opposition leaders are not. Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth and Conservative Darren Millar will both take their shots at getting a question to her they can use in the following press releases and social media clips.
In recent months, Rhun ap Iorwerth has tended to focus on why he thinks Labour in the UK administration has done little to help her party here, while the Tories tend to go for a national issue they know will sit well with right of centre voters.
This will be the last First Minister’s Questions of this, the Sixth Senedd. Anyone who has tuned into proceedings in the last few weeks will have heard the platitudes between colleagues as they thank each other for their work, and prepare – in some cases – to say goodbye.
But for her, personally, there is a lot at stake. Not only is her Welsh Labour Party facing an epic electoral battle to be re-elected, but she is too.
Mrs Morgan is standing in the new constituency of Ceredigion Penfro, and the projections based on current polling show she could herself find herself losing her job in the most public way possible – on a stage with cameras pointed at her when the votes have been counted on May 8.
It means that if the polls are right, and she fails to keep her seat, today isn’t just her last First Minister’s Questions, it may well be her final visit to the Siambr.
Even her rivals have questioned why she didn’t try to contest a safer seat – she does also have a home in Cardiff.
From her point of view, she’s been bullish: “I have to be able to be true to myself. So whatever happens, I’ve got to live with myself. In the future, whether I win or whether I don’t win, I have to be able to be true to myself,” she told me last August.
She has known for some time it is a battle of epic proportions.
Some of the reasons for that are totally outwiith her control. The tide started turning, the polls show, when Vaughan Gething had to quit as First Minister. Sir Keir Starmer’s unpopularity is something Labour activists will tell you comes up again and again, and world events impacting any chance of Labour’s cost of living promises giving any respite have all played their part.
Those sympathetic to her would say those are all issues she has no control over. The flip side is that she has been part of Labour, and the government in Wales for long enough to have made a difference long before she put her name forward to be leader. For our free daily briefing on the biggest issues facing the nation, sign up to the Wales Matters newsletter here
Yet as she takes to her feet, she will know that few, if any, within Labour realistically think they can perform a miracle and retain the role they have held at the top of Welsh politics for the 27 years of devolution so far, but they are banking on a bounce.
Those in and around the First Minister believe that when Labour, with all its experience and resources, gets out in earnest in the next few weeks, thjat the party faithful will be able to convince people to mark their X in the box next to the Labour rose.
But they know Plaid Cymru and Reform UK have topped polls consistently now for months. They know their local and national records are counting against them, as is the performance of the UK Government.
While Friday is officially the last day of Senedd business, with dissolution following Easter on April 8, it’s fair to say that the action is easing off. Attention is being diverted to campaigns, manifesto launches, and door knocking sessions.
And there will be little respite, once she leaves the chamber because just after she finishes First Minister’s Questions, we expect the latest voting intention poll by YouGov and ITV Cymru Wales to be published.
In recent months they have been nothing to cheer about, the First Minister will be one of those hoping for better news this time.

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