Secret National Intelligence Council assessment completed in February concluded neither limited airstrikes nor prolonged military campaign would result in new government taking over in Iran

A US intelligence evaluation, completed just before the United States and Israel initiated a war in Iran, concluded that American military intervention was unlikely to result in regime change in the Islamic Republic, according to two individuals privy to the findings.

The National Intelligence Council’s assessment in February determined that neither limited airstrikes nor an extended, sustained military campaign would likely lead to a new government taking power in Iran, even if the current leadership were eliminated, said the two individuals, who requested anonymity to discuss the classified report.

This conclusion undermines the administration’s claim that it can achieve its goals in Iran relatively swiftly, possibly within a few weeks.

READ MORE: Trump Iran LIVE: President says ‘war is complete’ in major update on conflictREAD MORE: Donald Trump’s eight word message to Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei

The administration has maintained that it is not pursuing regime change in Iran, even as the strikes have eliminated many figures in the Iranian leadership and President Donald Trump contemplates who he would prefer to see leading the country. The intelligence evaluation concluded that there was no single powerful or unified opposition coalition ready to assume control in Iran if the leadership were eliminated, according to those familiar with the report.

It found that Iran’s establishment would strive to maintain continuity of power if Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei were killed, the individuals stated. Following the assessment’s conclusions, Iran’s senior clerics on Sunday selected a new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, to replace his father, who was killed in the war’s initial strike.

The son is understood to harbour views that are even more extreme than his father’s, and his appointment is a powerful signal of defiance from Iran’s leadership and a clear indication the government won’t stand down easily. The specifics of the assessment were reported previously by The Washington Post and The New York Times.

Trump and other senior administration figures have offered varying justifications for the strikes that commenced on February 28, claiming they were essential to hinder Iran’s nuclear weapons programme or to forestall an Iranian ballistic missile assault. Whilst Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth has stated the war is not targeted at regime change, Trump has indicated it’s something he wishes to achieve.

A spokesperson for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment on the assessment on Monday and directed questions to the White House. Director Tulsi Gabbard dismissed the council’s acting chairperson last year following the publication of a declassified NIC memo that conflicted with statements the Trump administration has employed to justify deporting Venezuelan immigrants.

Trump, going back to his first term, has been profoundly sceptical of the U.S. intelligence community and has regularly rejected its findings as politically driven or part of a “deep state” attempt to undermine his presidency. Richard Goldberg, who served as director for countering Iranian weapons of mass destruction at the National Security Council during Trump’s initial term, pointed out that there’s also a degree of doubt towards the intelligence community due to some of its significant misjudgments in recent years.

American intelligence agencies largely failed to foresee the swift downfall of the Afghan government to the Taliban that occurred in 2021, with most evaluations suggesting a much slower takeover. And prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the ODNI, the Defense Department and the CIA incorrectly predicted that Kyiv would rapidly succumb to a larger and better equipped Russian military.

Goldberg, currently a senior adviser at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a hawkish Washington think tank, described an intelligence assessment as “almost like an op-ed from the intelligence community.”

A Syrian man has been charged with murder as a crime against humanity in a first prosecution of its kind in the UK.

The Metropolitan Police said the 58-year-old was accused of three counts of murder as a crime against humanity, three counts of torture and one charge of conduct ancillary to murder in connection with his time serving as part of the Syrian Air Force Intelligence (SAFI).

The offences are alleged to have happened in April 2011, while he was leading a group that attempted to put an end to demonstrations in the village of Jobar, near Damascus.

The Crown Prosecution Service said it is the first time charges of murder as crimes against humanity under the International Criminal Court Act 2001 have been brought.

The man was arrested at an address in Buckinghamshire in December 2021 and was released on bail until Monday’s charges.

The man, who now lives in the UK, is due to appear at Westminster Magistrates’ Court on Tuesday, the force said.

The investigation was launched by the Counter Terrorism Policing’s (CTP) war crimes unit.

Commander Helen Flanagan, who leads CTP London, said: “This has been an incredibly complex and challenging investigation, involving enquiries across many countries.

“This has required close cooperation with a number of international partners, as well as our colleagues in the CPS.

“The charges are extremely serious and show that we fully support the UK’s ‘no safe haven’ policy in relation to alleged war criminals.

“Where we are presented with allegations of war crimes and crimes against humanity that fall within our jurisdiction, then, as we have shown here, we will not hesitate to investigate those rigorously and robustly.”

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It is understood CTP officers received a referral in November 2020 regarding allegations made against an individual in the Syrian armed forces in the early 2010s.

NEW YORK (AP) — As the price of crude oil surpassed $110 a barrel Monday, reaching heights not seen since 2022, consumers were feeling the effects of the Iran war and its damage to worldwide energy production.

Gasoline prices are climbing, and many people will find some of the most immediate economic pain at the pump.

But you don’t have to drive a car to be affected. Nearly all goods — including food — that are bought and sold must travel from where they’re produced. Those costs will climb with higher gasoline, diesel and jet fuel prices.

And the spike in oil prices will likely be a big factor for U.S. inflation. As the war continues, some experts say the price of, well, everything could be affected.

“The longer this lasts, the more significant the shock would be,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist at consulting firm EY-Parthenon.

Here’s how the growing cost of oil and gas could impact consumers as the war continues.

At the pump: Gas prices are likely to continue climbing

Gasoline, diesel and jet fuel are made from crude oil. As the cost of crude climbs, so do the prices of those widely used products, which keep equipment, cars, buses, delivery trucks and airplanes running.

Across the U.S., drivers were paying an average of $3.48 for a gallon of regular gasoline Monday, compared with $2.98 before the war started. Prices have increased about 17% since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran.

Prices vary across states. In California, drivers were paying $5.20, up 12% from a week ago. Some of California’s refineries have shut down in recent years, so the massive state relies on imports of gasoline and other refined products from Asia.

By contrast, the average price in Louisiana, which has oil production and refineries, was $3.04.

The spike in oil prices is likely to further push up gasoline prices, and could be felt more significantly in Asia and Europe, which are more dependent on Middle Eastern oil and gas than the United States.

The cost of shipping and goods increases alongside the price of diesel

The price of diesel — which powers 18-wheeler trucks — climbed Monday, too: to $4.65 a gallon in the U.S., a 23% jump since the war started.

“Can’t underscore what a massive jolt this is to the logistics, trucking, (agriculture) sectors,” Patrick De Haan, a petroleum analyst at GasBuddy, wrote on X Monday.

The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway that carries a fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquified natural gas, already has caused problems for the shipping industry. Quickly rising oil and gas prices will add to the burden.

Fuel prices account for 50% to 60% of the total operating cost of shipping goods by ship, according to Patrick Penfield, professor of supply chain practice at Syracuse University, so higher fuel prices have a huge effect on the industry.

“When fuel prices start to go up, everything starts to slow down,” Penfield said. “So your ships slow down, your trucks slow down. People are less apt to ship things via air. And it really kind of causes a drag on the economy when fuel price go up.”

Fuel surcharges will also rise — as shipping companies aim to pass along higher costs to their customers, ultimately making goods more expensive.

Home energy bills will probably rise, and items made from plastic could cost more

Heating your home and cooking food with natural gas are also likely to cost more as the war grinds on.

Europe’s benchmark natural gas rose 75% since the war began, according to data from the Intercontinental Exchange.

That could also affect the cost of products made from natural gas, such as petrochemical feedstock. It’s used to make plastic and rubber, as well as nitrogen fertilizer.

Eventually, groceries might be more expensive, too

The spike in oil prices likely won’t be felt immediately at U.S. grocery stores, said David Ortega, a professor of food economics and policy at Michigan State University. But if oil prices remain high for a month or more, he said, “we’re in different territory.”

Higher oil prices impact the agricultural sector in two ways, Ortega said. They raise the cost of inputs such as fuel for farm equipment and the fertilizer, which is derived from natural gas. They also raise demand for soybean oil, palm oil and other vegetable oils that can be used as replacements for petroleum-based fuel.

But Ortega said on-farm costs are only a small part of what consumers pay at the supermarket. A larger share comes from the cost of processing and transporting food, which uses a lot of energy.

“Food gets to the grocery store on diesel, whether it’s on a truck or on a boat,” Ortega said.

If oil prices remain elevated, fresh foods that must be transported quickly could see price hikes more quickly than packaged foods, which are less perishable, Ortega said.

If inflation rises, everything gets more expensive

With U.S. oil prices increasing by roughly 42% from their pre-war levels, to roughly $95 a barrel from about $67 before the conflict, that could push up inflation in the United States from 2.4% in January to 3% or higher in the coming months, according to a rough estimate by economists at JPMorgan.

Economist Daco, of EY-Parthenon, estimated that the bump in gas prices could push monthly inflation to as high as 1% in March, which would be the highest monthly increase in four years. Yearly inflation would near 3% in that case.

“That’s a significant shock in and of itself,” Daco said.

Some experts say consumer spending will decrease

Mark Mathews, chief economist and executive director of research at the National Retail Federation, said higher gas prices would likely affect consumer spending, particularly lower-income shoppers.

U.S. households pay on average $2,500 a year, or nearly $50 a week, to fill up their tank, he said. If consumers are paying, say, $10 more per week, he said, their budgets are certainly affected.

“How do they offset that?” he said. “Going out to a movie theater or going to a theme park or going out to eat — all those areas would be … more likely see cuts.”

Some see hope that prices stay down — for now

Mathews expects that retailers will absorb higher transportation costs for a while — as many did with higher tariff s — before they increase prices.

Italian Finance Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti warned against passing along higher energy costs to consumers, recalling the lessons learned after Russia invaded Ukraine.

“We must act immediately to stop energy prices from spreading to all consumer goods, as happened in 2022,” he told a Monday G7 meeting in Brussels, according to a statement from his office.

Ed Anderson, a professor of supply chain and operations management for the McCombs School of Business at the University of Texas, said shippers won’t immediately pass on costs to customers.

“If the conflict is only in the short run, companies will eat it,” he said.

___

Associated Press journalists Nicole Winfield in Rome, Dee-Ann Durbin in Detroit and Anne D’Innocenzio in New York contributed to this report. Rugaber reported from Washington.

Reviewed by Kirsty Bosley

I woke up with a start on the first day I used the Momcozy Sunrise Echo because the “sunlight” beaming into my bedroom had me convinced I’d overslept. The gentle effect, progressing from a deep orange to a sunny yellow, meant I was bright-eyed and bushy-tailed long before the jingling music.

The Momcozy is dual purpose, acting as a night light and noise machine for babies and a cool, unobtrusive bedside lamp for adults. It has 17 nature sounds, three fan sounds, pink noise, white noise and brown noise, as well as seven sounds for a baby.

It’s been a while since shushing and heartbeats lulled me off to slumber, so instead I set an hour-long power-down timer with a cool blue hue and the soporific sound of water droplets. It’s remarkably realistic and I was asleep well before the hour was up.

The Sunrise Echo is designed so that the buttons that change the volume, sound effect, lamp colour and time are all just out of sight. It’s aesthetically pleasing, but in the early morning, I found it tricky to locate the “Alarm Off button”.

I enjoyed being able to turn the brightness of the clock display down, however, and the soft hues of the lamp helped me to relax when I used it as a simple bedside light. The Momcozy Sunrise Echo is trying to be everything to everyone and, honestly, it’s not far off.

This product is currently out of stock, but we’ll keep an eye on it and update this article accordingly.

Key specifications

• Light settings: One hour, three hours or six hour timer; seven-colour night light
• Sound settings: 30 high fidelity sounds
• Dimensions: H 20cm, W 17.5cm, D 9cm
• Trial period: N/A
• Warranty: 30 days

10. Best Mid-Range Sunrise Alarm Clock: Lumie Bodyclock Glow 150

Arsenal will face Southampton in the FA Cup quarter-finals knowing a victory will send them back to Wembley after landing a plum draw against the Championship outfit

Port Vale were the big story heading into Monday night’s FA Cup quarter-final draw, and they were rewarded for their impressive giant-killing act against Sunderland with a trip to Chelsea.

But it was Mikel Arteta and Arsenal who were the big winners in the draw, avoiding the likes of Liverpool and Manchester City – who will play each other – and landing a plum away tie at Southampton.

The Gunners are still fighting on all four fronts and have a chance to land the first trophy of the season when they meet Pep Guardiola‘s side at Wembley in the Carabao Cup final later this month.

And they look a pretty good bet to finally end their 20-plus year wait for a domestic title given they hold a healthy advantage at the Premier League summit.

READ MORE: FA Cup quarter final draw in full as Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea discover opponentsREAD MORE: Rodri discovers FA punishment after Man City star’s astonishing referee rant

So could they actually go and win the quadruple this year? As ambitious as that may seem, the FA Cup has been very kind to them – both this year and historically.

No team has won the world’s most famous knockout competition more times than Arsenal, who are 14-time FA Cup kings. A trip to Southampton, just outside the Championship play-off places, will hold no fear for Arteta’s charges.

A win against the Saints would put them in the semi-finals and, of course, back at Wembley. In truth, their potential route to the national stadium could hardly have been any better if Arteta been given the opportunity to plot it himself.

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They have yet to face a Premier League side, beating Portsmouth in the third round before then hammering Wigan Athletic of League One.

Mansfield Town gave the Gunners a scare at the weekend but they, too, were third-tier opposition.

With Port Vale and Southampton the only teams outside the top-flight left standing in the cup, Arsenal’s kind run will surely end. But at the semi-final stage, it’s anybody’s game anyway. And by then, Arsenal could already be well on their way to history.

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This change would come into effect this year

A primary school in Cambridge could change the age range of its pupils. Orchard Park Community Primary School could change the age range from three to 11 years to ages four to 11.

Cambridgeshire County Council intends to make the change to the school with effect from September 2026.

The primary school currently provides education for children aged three to 11 years, with a maintained nursery class. The school would like to provide childcare for children aged three to four using Section 27 of the Education Act (2002).

To formally make this change, Cambridgeshire County Council said it is necessary to change the age range of the school. A spokesperson for the council confirmed that this is an administrative change that has been requested by the school.

The spokesperson added: “Provisions for children will remain the same and the parents and carers of pupils should not notice any change.”

The Early Years provision would remain under the control of the school governing body, and there is no change planned to the number of early years places that the proposed new arrangement will provide.

This change aims to ensure financial sustainability for the school and create a more efficient model of early years education at the school. The consultation period will run from March 2 to March 30 2026.

ESPN host Stephen A. Smith, who has floated running for president in 2028, has shut down talk of a potential bid for the Democratic nomination — and it’s all about money.

Smith hosts First Take on ESPN, as well as a sports talk show called The Stephen A. Smith Show and a politics and culture show called Straight Shooters with Stephen A. on SiriusXM.

The commentator has toyed with the idea of running for office in recent months, telling CNN’s Jake Tapper last May, “Do I believe I could win? You’re damn right.” Smith identifies as a centrist and a moderate, but told CBS News’ Sunday Morning in February that if he did run for office, he’d run as a Democrat.

But any talk from Smith about a career in Washington was just that — talk. When Fox News’ Sean Hannity asked the ESPN host about a potential 2028 presidential run on his new podcast, Hang Out with Sean Hannity, Smith gave an honest answer as to why he wouldn’t throw his hat in the ring.

open image in gallery

Hannity said to Smith in a teaser clip posted to X on Monday, “I think it’s all bulls***. I don’t think you’re running. Am I right?”

“I don’t think I’m running either ‘cause I gotta give up my money. I ain’t giving up my money.”

Last September, The Athletic reported that Smith makes nearly $40 million a year. His salary includes $100 million over five years from ESPN and $36 million over three years for his SiriusXM gig, sources briefed on his contracts told the publication.

open image in gallery

Smith did make clear to CBS News’s Sunday Morning in February that he has “no desire to be a politician, zero.” But he said he was “not ruling it out, because I’d love to be on the debate stages against some of these individuals that think they’re better suited to run the country.”

“Because I think that the American people deserve to listen to and hear from somebody who genuinely cares about making life better for them instead of yourself,” the EPSN host added.

Smith said he’s fiscally conservative, noting that he “can’t stand high taxes,” and socially liberal as he pays “attention to the desolate and disenfranchised.” He also has mixed views about immigration and border security.

open image in gallery

“Yes, I like strong borders, that’s absolutely true. We never needed open borders, but we don’t need it to be completely closed, either. We are a gorgeous mosaic,” he told CBS News.

Among Smith’s fans who may be sad to hear he won’t launch a 2028 bid is President Donald Trump. Speaking at a NewsNation town hall last April, Trump called Smith a “good” and “smart” guy.

“I love watching him. He’s got great entertainment skills, which is very important. People watch him,” the president said. “I’ve been pretty good at picking people and picking candidates, and I will tell you, I’d love to see him run.”

Zoomies is promising a safe and controlled space for dogs to play at the Dabble Duck Industrial Estate, having been announced earlier this year.

Owner Ashley Bennett described it as a long held dream, and a major career change from hairdressing to working with dogs.

A new dog soft play experience is set to be opening in Dabble Duck Industrial Estate in Shildon offering a safe space where dogs can play (Image: GOOGLE)

The play area will operate through 50-minute bookings, giving dog owners exclusive use of the space.

Two separate play areas will also be available, with staggered sessions designed to reduce the chances of dogs seeing one another.

Ashley has now shared an update explaining that the final stages of the process are still being worked through.

She said: “I’m at the stage where I’ve completed everything I possibly can from my side. Unfortunately, every time it feels like we’re getting close to an end date, another question or query seems to come through from higher up, which slows things down a little.

“Please bear with me while this final part gets sorted. I honestly can’t wait to get Zoomies up and running and share it with you all. Thanks so much for your patience and support!”

Ashley previously explained the personal meaning behind the business, saying: “Although I’ve been hairdressing forever, working with dogs has always been in my heart.

“This has been a dream quietly growing behind the scenes, built with so much love, care, and passion for our four-legged friends.”

The update was met with messages of encouragement from people keen to visit once the play area opens.

One commenter wrote: “Oh my goodness it will so be worth the wait. We’re so looking forward to coming.”

Another said: “My babies can’t wait to come along and play.”

And another added: “You will get there, we can’t wait and are really looking forward to getting booked in for some fun time with the doggos (sic)”.

Ashley said more details will be shared as the launch approaches.

Paul Scholes has insisted he did not mean to offend his former team-mate Michael Carrick after a social media barb aimed at the Manchester United head coach on Wednesday night.

Scholes posted that “Michael has definitely got something special about him, (because) United have been c*** last four games,” shortly after United lost 2-1 at Newcastle.

Despite the loss, the first since Carrick replaced Ruben Amorim, United sit third in the Premier League and are challenging for Champions League qualification.

And responding to criticism of his comment, Scholes, speaking on the GoodBadFootball podcast, said: ‘Michael is one of the nicest people you will ever meet in football – he’d be the last person I would want to offend.

‘I messaged Michael anyway. I went straight to Michael and said, ‘Look, I never intended to upset you.’ And I don’t think I needed to say that anyway, and he told me himself he wasn’t upset by it.

‘I think people have just took it differently from what was meant. The only thing I was saying was that I don’t think they played that well the last four games, and he’s still managing to get results.’

Scholes’ comments were criticised by another former United player, Patrice Evra, who also took aim at perceived negativity from fellow pundits Roy Keane and Gary Neville.

‘It annoys me because we want to be in the top four, and those comments are unnecessary, but this is what you do when you work in TV.’ said Evra. ‘You can’t be positive, you have to be negative.’

Another United stalwart, who played alongside Carrick and Scholes, Rio Ferdinand, meanwhile, confirmed he had been in touch with the 51-year-old and clarified there was no animosity between the pair.

‘Everyone was saying is Scholesy drunk has he had a few too many to drink, Ferdinand said when referring to the incident on his Rio Presents YouTube channel.

‘I actually texted him and said ‘what’s going on?’ But Scholesy is Scholesy. He said ‘listen I said he’s special but we have been rubbish the last four games’.

‘And he isn’t wrong. We have been rubbish the last four games in terms of performance. It hasn’t been top, I wouldn’t say rubbish. It hasn’t been oh my god I’m going to pay to watch that against next week, it’s been flat.

‘People are going ‘I thought he was his teammate, I thought he’d support him a bit more. Did he need to say that?’ Those are obviously the questions people are asking if there a bit of beef between them?

‘Listen, there’s not beef between them two. They’re two really placid, calm guys. Carra has the upmost respect for Scholesy and Scholesy the same.

‘It was just interpreted differently to the way Scholesy meant it to come across.

‘He’s just being honest and brutal. One thing I’d say abouut him, he didn’t say much in the changing room but when he did it was normally a cutting comment so I’m not surprised he is how he is as a pundit right now.’

MORE: Rio Ferdinand reveals the truth over Paul Scholes ‘beef’ with Michael Carrick

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