Makerfield by-election LIVE as Keir Starmer speaks out on Andy Burnham and leadership challenge

Controversy over Reform UK candidate Robert Kenyon’s past comments about women has damaged his campaign in the tightly fought Makerfield by-election, according to new polling that suggests the contest could be too close to call.

Research conducted by Opinium for Forward Democracy, found that reports about Mr Kenyon’s comments, which have previously been described as ‘misogynistic’, are now widely known among voters and are having a significant impact on his candidacy.

Mr Kenyon’s previous posts included him responding to insulting comments directed at television presenter Carol Vorderman. As a result of the unearthed social media, Vorderman described Mr Kenyon as a ‘little coward’ and sent a letter to 6,000 female voters across the constituency.

The Opinium survey of 543 voters, conducted between 3 and 11 June using a mixed online and face-to-face methodology, puts Burnham on 46 per cent and Kenyon on 41 per cent. However, the five-point gap is within the poll’s margin of error of just under five percentage points, meaning the race remains highly competitive.

The data also shows Mr Kenyon’s past comments appear to have cut through in the constituency.

When voters were asked whether things candidates had said or done during the campaign made them more or less likely to support them, Kenyon recorded a net score of minus eight points, with 30 per cent saying that they were less likely to vote for him compared with 22 per cent who said they were more likely to do so. By contrast, Labour candidateAndy Burnham recorded a small positive net score of plus two points.

The polling found that 73 per cent of voters had heard reports about Kenyon’s comments, including around 80 per cent of both Labour and Reform supporters. Among voters aware of the controversy, 45 per cent said it made them less likely to vote for him, compared with just 11 per cent who said it made them more likely to support him.

The effect was particularly pronounced among younger voters and among those backing Burnham, while women were more likely than men to say the reports made them “much less likely” to support the Reform candidate.

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