Manchester mayoral election: Who are the candidates, when will result be announced, and who’s likely to win?

More than two million people will head to polling stations on Thursday to vote for a new Greater Manchester mayor in what is set to be the biggest by-election in British history.

The mayoral role was created in 2017, with Mr Burnham elected as the inaugural holder and winning every election since – never without less than 60% of the vote.

Attentions will now turn to who Manchester chooses as his replacement.

Focus will be on if Labour can recover sufficiently from its devastating set of results in the May and lean on Burnham’s legacy to claim victory.

Or will history be made by Nigel Farage’s Reform UK or Zack Polanski’s Green Party? Both are hoping to expand their mayoral footprints.

Reform UK had a disappointing result in the Makerfield by-election, and Mr Farage’s party will undoubtedly be facing pressure to win after he resigned as MP of Clacton-upon-Sea earlier this month amid the furore over his finances.

Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain will also be challenging for some of Reform UK’s votes, while Mr Polanski’s party will look to add to its Manchester victories after winning the seat of Gorton and Denton.

Sian Astley is Reform UK’s candidate and has lived in the area for 35 years.

The Wythenshawe councillor has claimed to have “always fought” for the area, having prevented Withington Baths from closing and running a campaign to stop domestic abuse survivors from being made homeless.

Ms Astley has vowed to cut waste, cut tax, “fight against illegal migrants being dumped here”, and to deliver safer streets. Another one of her priorities includes opening the grooming gangs files and the luxury developer contracts.

She has also pledged to build “the toughest police force in Britain”.

Ms Astley raised eyebrows on Monday as she withdrew from a hustings in Manchester. She claimed on social media that she pulled out after independent candidate Marcus Farmer was prevented from taking part.

Rupert Lowe’s top pick is Marlon West, a born and bred Mancunian with more than 30 years of service in the NHS.

Inquiries into the rape gangs have been a priority for Mr West, whose own daughter is a rape gang survivor.

He has also pledged to “put visible policing back on our streets” and “put infrastructure first.”

Mr West will also “stop obsessing” over central Manchester and start to focus on places like Wigan, Bolton, Rochdale, Stockport, and Sale, according to his manifesto.

Geraldine Coggins moved to Manchester from Dublin, but has family roots in Balton, Salford, Bury, and the Whalley Range.

As one of Manchester’s first Green Councillors, Ms Coggins claims she knows “how to get things done.”

Her manifesto includes building 20,000 publicly owned, energy-efficient homes “by restoring empty properties and a public developer to build rental homes.”

She has also pledged to “revive high streets” and put climate and nature “at the heart of every decision.”

Ms Coggins also said she would “stand against the Gaza genocide.”

Richard Kilpatrick is the Lib Dem councillor in Didsbury West and considers Manchester his home.

Mr Kilpatrick claims to have opened emergency flood relief spaces during his time as local councillor, as well as hammering down on public spending.

He intends on campaigning for closer ties with Europe to boost the region’s economy and for more investment in social care.

Priorities for Mr Kilpatrick include cutting childcare costs, building homes, and protecting the region from climate change.

Interim Manchester Mayor Paul Dennett announced that he would not be running for the position, with the party putting Bev Craig forward as a replacement.

Ms Craig has Andy Burnham’s backing and has vowed to improve local town centres, freeze fares on the Bee Network, and get to grips with the housing crisis.

One of her pledges includes expanding neighbourhood policing and giving “every young person the chance to get into work.”

She is currently the leader of the Manchester City Council and the councillor for Burnage.

Phil Eckersley currently represents Bowdon ward on Trafford Council where he is the party’s deputy leader and a shadow executive member for health and care.

This echoes his profession as the founder of Bridgewater Home Care in Wigan.

He has vowed to “get the area back on track” by prioritising areas outside of Manchester city centre.

His priorities include building more homes “in the right places”, backing public transport and motorists by ensuring services are “reliable”and road charging schemes are blocked, and freezing the Mayor’s share of council tax.

Marcus Farmer is a local businessman and will be standing in his third Greater Manchester mayoral election.

He received just under 1% of the vote last time around.

His five-point plan puts young people first, prioritises investment for small and medium-sized business, encourages investment in “forgotten towns”, improves access to choice, and pushes for equality of opportunity.

Odds according to bet365 as of July 28

Liberal Democrats: 1000/1

You can vote from 7am to 10pm in person at the polling station on July 30.

The result is expected to be declared on July 31.