The Ipsos poll says over half of Welsh voters are yet to decide who they will vote for
A new poll projects Plaid Cymru has a slight lead over Reform in terms of voting intentions, but says Reform voters are more committed ahead of the Senedd election on May 7. It also projects that over half the electorate could still change their mind.
The poll, carried out by Ipsos, also highlights widespread public frustration with the performance of the Welsh Government and a lack of trust in any of the parties to tackle the nations top priorities.
The poll suggests that 30% of the electorate intend to vote for Plaid Cymru, closely followed by 25% for Reform UK. Just 15% of respondents said they intend to vote for the third-placed Labour party, and 12% for the Welsh Conservatives.
It’s the third poll of the week after YouGov found Plaid and Reform neck and neck, while More in Common also gave Plaid a narrow lead.
Over half of Welsh voters, 52%, say they could still change their minds about who they will vote for. At 32%, the least likely to change their minds appeared to be Reform voters.
When it came to trust, Plaid Cymru appeared to be the most trusted party to grow the Welsh economy and stand up for the interests of Wales, with 22% indicating they trusted them with the economy and 33% with the latter.
Meanwhile, Reform UK came out on top on the issue of immigration, with 25%. Make sure you never miss Wales’ biggest updates by getting our daily newsletter.
When respondents were asked about the leaders, the public were most likely to say Plaid leader Rhun ap Iorwerth would make the most capable First Minister of Wales. This figure was however only 20% and more people said they didn’t know if he would, or that there wouldn’t be much difference.
A vast 67% believe services in Wales have deteriorated over the last five years and blame is largely attributed to the Welsh Government (64%) and local councils (50%). The Welsh Government’s overall performance satisfaction was therefore a bleak 23%.
For voters in Wales, the poll found that the NHS (74%) and the cost of living (67%) were the key issues. Meanwhile, there was a strong divide between those who thought immigration was a key issue, and those who did not.
Those considering voting for Reform were significantly more likely to say immigration and asylum was a top-tier voting issue, while those considering voting for Plaid Cymru are driven more by the NHS and the cost of living.
The results of the poll are based on a representative probability sample of 747 Welsh adults aged 16+. The poll was carried out online between Thursday, April 2, and Wednesday, April 8.
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