More in Common’s first MRP poll of the Senedd election suggests who will be the largest party after Election Day on May 7 and the deal they may have to strike
Plaid Cymru may be compelled to enter into a power-sharing arrangement with Labour in Wales, according to new polling data.
The survey, conducted by More in Common, places Plaid Cymru marginally ahead of Reform as the largest party in the Welsh Parliament following the election on May 7.
Nevertheless, it is not projected to achieve an outright majority, and the latest polling indicates the party may be required to negotiate an agreement with Welsh Labour – which has governed Wales for over two decades – in order to form an administration.
More in Common’s inaugural MRP poll for this Senedd election, which surveyed over 2,500 people throughout Wales, has projected Plaid Cymru will secure 30 seats, Reform 28, and Welsh Labour 24. Stay in the know by making sure you’re receiving our daily newsletter
The Welsh Greens, projected to claim four seats, and the Welsh Liberal Democrats, projected to win three, have both signalled their willingness to enter discussions with Plaid Cymru, should it emerge as the largest party in the Senedd.
However, More in Common’s polling suggests a pact between Plaid Cymru and Labour may represent the only feasible path to government, given that 49 seats are required for a majority.
The two parties have previously formed a coalition, with Plaid also having collaborated with the Welsh Labour government on numerous policy matters in the past.
Yet Plaid Cymru ended its most recent partnership in 2024 and has built its campaign around delivering “new leadership” for Wales and its determination to “replace” Labour in government.
The More in Common survey indicates Reform is poised to secure substantial gains across the entire country, with some of its most impressive showings expected in the south Wales Valleys.
In stark contrast, the Welsh Conservatives, who served as the official opposition following the previous Senedd election, are forecast to slip to fourth place, capturing just seven seats.
Luke Tryl, executive director of More in Common UK, said: “Looking at Wales today, it’s hard to believe that the 2024 general election was less than two years ago – the political map has changed so dramatically since Labour won decisively in Wales.
“Having governed in Wales for 28 years, Labour is set to be pushed into third place – and for the first time we could see Wales led by a non-Labour first minister.
“Plaid Cymru are the clear beneficiaries of a country ready for change, and could be on course to lead a Welsh government for the first time.
“But it may be a tricky start – potentially requiring sharing power with a weakened Labour Party that, despite its losses, could still wield considerable influence over the shape of any coalition.
“The other story of this election is Reform’s breakthrough,” he added.
“Their support spans the whole country – beyond the valleys to Cardiff and the north east – they have firmly displaced the Conservatives as the party of the Welsh right.”
The More in Common poll questioned 2,519 eligible voters in Wales during the period from January through to April.
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