Nigel Farages Support For Trump May Block PM Bid

Nigel Farage used to be unashamed about his friendship with Donald Trump.

He once described him as “the single most resilient and brave person I have ever met”.

On another occasion, Farage said of the US president: “The guy has got guts, the guy’s got balls – he stands up and fights for the right values.”

The Reform UK leader proudly campaigned for Trump in the 2016, 2020 and 2024 US election campaigns, well and truly pinning his colours to the maverick Republican’s mast.

And, following Trump’s victory first time around, there was the infamous picture of the pair of them grinning outside a gold lift in Trump Tower.

Critics of the then president-elect should “stop whingeing” and “just get on with it”, Farage said at the time.

Nearly a decade on, and it is Farage himself who could be standing on the cusp of power – unless his closeness to the man in the Oval Office scuppers his chances.

According to Luke Tryl of pollsters More in Common, the Reform leader’s association with the “deeply unpopular” Trump is a far bigger turn-off for voters than the wave of Conservative MPs defecting to his party

He told HuffPost UK: “In focus groups over the past few weeks there has been one topic people have wanted to discuss – Donald Trump and their worries about what his erratic style means for the UK.

“Trump is deeply unpopular among Brits, as is his style of politics, and that’s a problem first and foremost for Nigel Farage. While, so far, claims his recent recruits are making Reform reheated Tories don’t seem to be moving voters, his association with Trump does.”

Tryl’s analysis appeared to be backed up by a More in Common poll conducted last weekend which showed that Reform’s lead over Labour had fallen to just seven points after a slight drop-off in their support.

That followed another poll from earlier this month by Focal Data which showed a three-point fall in Reform’s popularity and putting their lead over Labour at just five points.

While it is still far too early to draw firm conclusions, and Reform have still led in more than 200 consecutive opinion polls, it does suggest at least a levelling off in support for the party.

Tryl added: “Over half of Brits say ‘Britain’s Trump’ describes Farage well. But fewer than one in five say that’s a good thing.

“His relationship with Trump is often the most cited reason people give for worrying about voting for Reform – particularly among women.

“If Farage can’t put enough distance between himself and the Trump administration, there’s a real risk the party pays the same electoral price we’re seeing across the western world as ‘the Trump penalty’ stymies parties of the right.”

This may explain why Farage has been more willing to criticise Trump in recent so far this year, as the president has made waves with his designs on Greenland and dismissive remarks about the contribution Nato troops made to the war in Afghanistan.

Keir Starmer, who has gone out of his way to form a close relationship with Trump over the past 12 months, has also finally found his voice, openly attacking the president on both occasions.

Tryl believes the PM’s new muscular approach towards the White House is an acknowledgment that Trump is political Kryptonite in the UK.

“There’s greater appetite to appear more muscular, even though we’re too interconnected to walk away entirely,” he said.

“And on Afghanistan, as Rishi Sunak on D-Day showed, not being seen to be on the side of veterans is electoral Harakiri.”

The first major political test of this new approach for both men comes on February 26, when voters go to the polls in the Gorton and Denton by-election.

For Starmer, however, the stakes are far, far higher.

A Reform UK victory in a seat Labour won by nearly 13,500 votes just 18 months ago would be seismic, whereas defeat would hardly be disastrous.

For Labour, however, anything other than victory could be fatal for the prime minister.

And while a victory for Reform’s Matt Goodwin may be just about survivable, a loss to the Greens’ Hannah Spencer probably won’t be.

Spencer, a 34-year-old plumber and councillor who was unveiled by her party on Friday, described the by-election as a battle of “hope versus hate”.

“Reform have chosen a candidate that will divide our community,” she said. “He doesn’t even think many of the people who live and work here are even British.

“I will bring the people of Gorton and Denton together. With their support, I will join my Green MP colleagues in the House of Commons, hold the government to account and demand action to push down costs, raise wages and bring desperately-needed investment into our community.”

Her message was perfectly pitched at the many voters who backed Labour in 2024 and are angry at the gaffes, controversies and multiple U-turns which have subsequently ensued.

A victory for Spencer would demonstrate to left-of-centre voters that they have a viable and electable alternative to Labour in seats where Reform are competitive – and send panic through the ranks of Starmer’s MPs, who are already in despair at his performance as prime minister.

The taint of Trump may be hard for Farage to shake off, but not impossible between now and the next general election.

But defeat to the Greens in Gorton and Denton will begin the countdown to Starmer’s departure from 10 Downing Street.