LABUAN BAJO, Indonesia (AP) — Searchers dug through collapsed buildings and landslide debris Sunday in eastern Indonesia as they searched for bodies and possible survivors a day after a powerful earthquake killed at least 47 people, injured more than 100 and displaced thousands.

At least 24 people died in Manggarai regency and 17 in neighboring East Manggarai, with additional fatalities reported in Sikka, Ngada and Ende regencies, the National Disaster Management Agency said. Rescuers were still searching for villagers feared buried beneath landslides triggered by the quake across six regencies on Flores, a predominantly Catholic island in Muslim-majority Indonesia.

The USGS said the magnitude 7.7 earthquake struck 68 kilometers (42 miles) north-northwest of Ende in East Nusa Tenggara province. The quake, at a depth of about 10 kilometers (6 miles) off the coast of Flores, rattled much of the island and sent residents fleeing in panic. Tremors were also felt in neighboring West Nusa Tenggara and parts of southern Sulawesi.

The disaster agency said the quake destroyed more than 900 homes and damaged nearly 450 more, forcing about 5,000 people into temporary shelters. Thousands more spent the night outdoors, fearing strong aftershocks. At least 167 public facilities, including schools, health centers and churches, were also damaged.

Relief workers have begun distributing rice, ready-to-eat meals, drinking water, blankets and medicine, while emergency shelters were being set up for displaced residents. Authorities said restoring electricity and communications as well as delivering aid to remote villages isolated by landslides remained among the biggest challenges.

The quake also struck Labuan Bajo, the gateway to Komodo National Park, one of Indonesia’s best-known tourist destinations. Landslides blocked sections of the Trans-Flores Highway, a roughly 700-kilometer (435-mile) road linking communities across the mountainous island.

Many residents continued to sleep outside rather than risk returning to damaged homes.

“The shaking was terrifying, so intense that my house nearly collapsed,” said Anastasia Imad, a farmer in Labuan Bajo, speaking from a makeshift green tent beside her damaged home. “We feared the aftershocks would bring it down on us while we slept.”

Indonesia, an archipelago of more than 17,000 islands, is prone to earthquakes and volcanic eruptions because of its location on the Pacific “Ring of Fire,” a horseshoe-shaped arc of seismic faults and volcanoes.

Flores has experienced some of the country’s deadliest disasters. A powerful earthquake and tsunami in 1992 killed about 2,500 people on the island.

In 2018, a magnitude 7.5 earthquake triggered a tsunami on Sulawesi that killed more than 4,400 people. In 2004, a magnitude 9.1 quake off Sumatra unleashed a tsunami that killed about 230,000 people in a dozen countries.

___

Associated Press writers Niniek Karmini and Edna Tarigan in Jakarta, Indonesia, contributed to this report.

With temperatures forecast to reach around 37°C in places, reaching for an ice cream or an icy drink might seem like an excellent idea. There is, however, one small hazard to eating your frozen treat with too much enthusiasm: brain freeze.

That sudden, stabbing pain is officially classified as a cold-stimulus headache. The International Headache Society describes it as a headache caused by eating, drinking or inhaling something very cold. “Ice-cream headache” and “brain freeze” are much easier to say while clutching your forehead.

And it is surprisingly common. In one study of 618 people aged 17 to 63, just over half said they had experienced brain freeze.

Scientists still do not know exactly what causes it, partly because a headache that disappears almost as quickly as it arrives is difficult to study.

Very cold food or drink touching the roof of the mouth or the back of the throat can trigger the pain. One important player seems to be the trigeminal nerve, a large nerve that carries information about sensations, including pain and temperature, from the face and parts of the mouth to the brain.

When the roof of the mouth is suddenly chilled, researchers think the cold activates pathways involving this nerve. That may help explain one of the strangest things about brain freeze. The cold is in your mouth, but the pain is commonly felt in the forehead or temples and can sometimes be felt around the eyes.

This is often described as referred pain, where pain is felt somewhere other than the place that triggered it. That may be why brain freeze can make your forehead hurt even though the cold is in your mouth.

Blood flow may also be involved, although the story is more complicated than was once thought. In one study that deliberately triggered brain freeze with ice water, researchers recorded changes in blood-flow velocity in an artery supplying the brain. Other experiments have also found evidence of changes in the brain’s circulation during brain freeze.

So the familiar explanation that cold simply makes blood vessels narrow and then rapidly widen is probably too tidy. Current research points towards an interaction between nerve signalling and changes in blood flow, but the precise mechanism is still uncertain.

What about migraine?

The relationship between brain freeze and migraine is also less straightforward than it might appear.

Some research suggests a connection. In one study of 669 women, those who had experienced migraine during the previous year were about twice as likely to develop a headache after drinking ice-cold water as women who had never had migraine.

Other studies have produced different results. A 1992 experiment triggered ice-cream headaches less often in people with migraine than in its comparison group. And a larger 2020 study found that people with migraine were no more likely to experience brain freeze, although those who did tended to report more intense pain.

For some people with migraine, brain freeze may occasionally trigger a migraine attack. The 1992 study found a small number of people for whom this appeared to happen, although the researchers concluded that ice-cream headache was not a common migraine trigger.

The two types of headache may share some pain pathways, but the relationship between them is still not fully understood.

Why do children seem to get it so often?

Brain freeze is common among children and teenagers, although research in younger people is still relatively limited. A large survey of 8,359 adolescents found that 41% had experienced an ice-cream headache.

How quickly they eat may be part of the explanation. In a wonderfully simple Canadian experiment involving 145 schoolchildren, children were given 100ml of ice cream. One group had to eat it in less than five seconds, while the other took more than 30 seconds. About 27% of the fast eaters developed brain freeze, compared with around 13% of those who took their time.

There is therefore some scientific justification for the instruction usually delivered by parents while watching a child demolish an ice cream: slow down.

Can you stop brain freeze?

Prevention appears to be easier than cure. In the Canadian experiment, eating ice cream quickly more than doubled the likelihood of developing brain freeze. In another study, 73% of people who experienced brain freeze said eating or drinking cold things more slowly reduced how often it happened or how intense it was.

Most attacks are over very quickly. In the study of 618 people, 93% of brain-freeze headaches lasted less than 30 seconds. But some last longer. One experimental study found a less common form that lasted an average of almost four minutes, while the International Headache Society’s diagnostic criteria allow for the headache to take up to ten minutes to disappear after the cold stimulus is removed.

There is little good research showing that popular tricks such as pressing your tongue against the roof of your mouth make the headache disappear faster. Fortunately, brain freeze usually resolves on its own.

So during the heatwave, there is no need to fear the ice-cream van. Just resist the temptation to eat your purchase as though someone is about to take it away from you. Eating it slowly may help you enjoy it without the headache.

In the animal kingdom, any hunt for a meal or encounter with a predator is a matter of life and death. To survive both, animals have evolved a multitude of weapons, of which venoms may be one of the most widespread and effective.

But building a chemical weapon presents an evolutionary dilemma. Should venom be optimised to disarm prey, or to cause rapid pain to deter predators? Our new study suggests that in snakes, a meal comes before self-defence.

Venoms are complex chemical cocktails. Their composition is shaped fundamentally by their intended purpose. Predatory venoms disrupt multiple tissues and organs at once to immobilise prey. On the other hand, defensive venoms have only one job: to cause rapid, intense pain to deter predators. Think of a bee sting, for example.

These differences create a conundrum. What if an animal wants to use its venom for both predation and defence? This is not a trivial question, because the storage capacity of venom glands is limited, and producing venoms is thought to carry an energetic cost. That opens the door to an evolutionary trade-off: investing resources into one function might leave less for the other.

Venomous snakes are probably the best-studied venomous organisms, and for a good reason. Unfortunately, snakebite remains a huge medical issue, especially in tropical countries. More than 100,000 people die yearly and more than 400,000 people suffer lifelong injuries as a consequence of snakebite.

In theory, antivenoms could prevent many of those deaths, but there is another problem. Snake venoms are extremely variable, not just between species but also between different populations of the same species. This means that antivenoms developed for one region can fail to work in another. Understanding what drives this immense venom variation is the first step towards more effective treatments.

Snakes use their venoms both for hunting and self-defence. We have good evidence that diet is the central factor shaping venom composition in many snakes. In contrast, defence against predators has rarely been studied as an important evolutionary driver, and never in comparison with diet.

Based on the results of a previous study, we suspected that species that hunt easy, low-risk prey such as insects might not need a highly lethal predatory venom, freeing up resources to invest in more defensive, pain-inducing compounds instead.

To test this idea, we looked at a group of venomous snakes called meadow vipers (Vipera ursinii and relatives). These curious little snakes live in the lowland steppes and alpine meadows of Eurasia. Their diet is unusual among vipers, as they eat mostly or almost entirely grasshoppers, crickets and locusts.

On the other hand, they also regularly fall prey to predators like birds of prey, badgers and foxes. It’s exactly the kind of pressure that might favour a defensive venom.

For our study, we travelled to where their populations can be found across Europe to obtain venom by “milking” them. It’s a process that causes no harm to the snakes, and they were released back to their habitats afterwards. We also collected venom from other European vipers like the adder (V. berus), asp viper (V. aspis) and nose-horned viper (V. ammodytes), which mostly feed on more dangerous prey, like rodents.

If our trade-off theory held, we would expect these venoms to be more predatory and less pain-inducing than those of meadow vipers.

Putting venom to the test

To measure pain, we tested the venoms on cultures of specialised sensory neuron cells. These are cells responsible for detecting harmful stimuli in the body. If such a cell is activated to produce pain, calcium ions flow into the cell. So, to track whether venom triggered these cells, we treated them with a fluorescent dye that reacts to calcium and measured the emitted fluorescence.

To our surprise, regardless of diet, none of the tested venoms activated these cells, not even that of the insect-feeding meadow vipers. So, it appears that European viper venoms, like in most snakes, probably evolved to overcome prey rather than to fend off predators.

All this does does not mean that viper bites don’t hurt. They do. But it seems that the pain is mostly caused as a side effect of other venom actions, such as inflammation, tissue degradation or muscle spasms.

There are however exceptions elsewhere in the snake world. Some toxins found in lanceheads and coral snakes do directly stimulate pain receptors. However, such toxins have been documented in only a handful of species and their ecological function remains enigmatic.

That means the story of snake venom is far from complete. Rather than revealing a universal rule, our findings suggest that, at least in European vipers, the evolutionary pressure to catch prey has outweighed the need to deter predators. Understanding where that pattern holds – and where it doesn’t – could help explain why snake venoms vary so dramatically, an essential step towards developing better treatments for snakebite around the world.

Princess Anne, often hailed as the hardest-working royal, is just as well known for her commitment to rewearing her favourite pieces.

Over the years, she has breathed new life into an impressive collection of coats, dresses, hats and handbags – some of which have been in rotation for decades.

Speaking about her approach to fashion, she once remarked: ‘A good suit goes on forever. If it is properly made and has a classic look, you can wear it ad infinitum. The economy was bred into me.’

As the Princess celebrates her 76th birthday, we take a closer look at some of the most memorable moments from her ‘time capsule’ wardrobe.

Ivory coat dress

For the Nigerian state banquet at Windsor Castle in March, Anne revisited an ivory coat dress she first wore in 1969, when she was just 18, for the premiere of Run Wild, Run Free

For the Nigerian state banquet at Windsor Castle in March, Anne revisited an ivory coat dress she first wore in 1969, when she was just 18, for the premiere of Run Wild, Run Free.

Crafted from ribbed ivory silk, the figure-skimming design features embroidered cuffs and intricate beading. 

For her recent appearance, Anne gave the vintage piece a contemporary update, removing its original ruffled neckline and replacing it with a classic pointed collar.

Red coat

This double-breasted red coat is clearly another of Anne’s enduring favourites. She began wearing it regularly in the 1990s, for occasions ranging from Christmas celebrations to horse races, and has continued to bring it out over the years 

Advertisement

This double-breasted red coat is clearly another of Anne’s enduring favourites.

She began wearing it regularly in the 1990s, for events ranging from Christmas celebrations to horse races, and has continued to bring it out over the years.

Most recently, she wore the timeless piece on the final day of the 2024 Cheltenham Festival, styling it with a faux fur headpiece and knee-high boots.

Turquoise dress 

The Princess Royal first wore this turquoise dress during the 1978 state visit of President Khama of Botswana, in London , when she was 26. She wore it most recently during a visit to the Queen Elizabeth Hotel in Dubai in March 

The Princess Royal first wore this turquoise dress during the 1978 state visit of President Khama of Botswana in London when she was 26. 

Since then, Anne has worn the garment on a number of occasions, including Royal Ascot in 2013 and a visit to the Queen Elizabeth 2 hotel in Dubai in March.

Astonishingly, it retains its pristine condition. 

Lilac coat 

Anne wore this lilac coat on at least six royal engagements between 1982 and 2004

Anne wore this lilac coat on at least six royal engagements between 1982 and 2004.

The Princess debuted the outerwear, with a corresponding John Boyd veiled hat, when welcoming Queen Beatrix of the Netherlands for a state visit in 1982.

A year later, she wore it for the unveiling of the Mountbatten Memorial Statue in London, followed by an appearance in 1988 to launch the submarine HMS Talent.

Anne wore the elegant coat again for the 1992 Commonwealth Day service at Westminster Abbey and then for a fourth time on a visit to Greenwich’s Royal Naval College in 1997.

More recently, she reached for the A-line wool design on Christmas Day in 2001, 2004 and 2013, pairing it with her original hat.

Pink satin dress

Anne wore her striking satin dress to the 1984 Bafta Awards (left) and the 2001 Save The Children Festival (right)

Anne has demonstrated her style prowess in this perfectly eighties frock. 

Attending the 1984 Bafta Awards at Grosvenor House Hotel, she made a bold statement in a satin gown, featuring voluminous puff sleeves and a houndstooth-printed skirt.  

When it came to rewearing the dress in 2001, Anne altered the sleeves to make it more appropriate for the decade.

Yellow and navy coat 

The Princess Royal has worn her yellow and navy coat on five occasions since 2007. Pictured left in 2011 and right in 2023

Anne has showcased this yellow and navy coat five times since 2007. 

She debuted the tailored single-breasted design at the Easter Sunday service in Windsor 18 years ago.

She dusted it off for Royal Ascot in 2009 and, a decade later, wore it for the wedding of Lady Gabriella Windsor and Thomas Kingston at St George’s Chapel in Windsor. 

Most recently, she wore the coat while visiting New Zealand and then Jersey in 2023.

Printed skirt suit 

This skirt suit was a mainstay in Princess Anne’s 90s wardrobe. She dusted it off for Royal Ascot in 2014 (right)

Advertisement

Initially seen at Royal Ascot in 1988, this skirt suit played a key role in Princess Anne’s nineties wardrobe. 

She notably selected the printed jacket and mid-length cream skirt for the wedding of Lady Helen Windsor and Tim Taylor at St George’s Chapel in Windsor in 1992.

It was next spotted at Ascot in 1994 and later at a VE Day commemoration in 1995.

Following a 19-year break, the look was revived at Royal Ascot 2014, complemented with the same ivory gloves and court shoes. 

Floral wrap dress 

Anne wore her Maureen Baker floral print dress to royal weddings in 1981 (left) and 2008 (right)

The Princess has worn this floral print dress by Maureen Baker for two royal weddings – 27 years apart. 

Anne debuted the wrap dress, adorned with orange tulips and ruffles, at the wedding of her brother, Prince Charles, to Princess Diana in 1981.

She added pearl jewellery and a John Boyd floral hat in complementary tones.

Almost three decades later, Anne rewore the look to the 2008 wedding of her cousin, Lady Rose Windsor, to George Gilman at the Queen’s Chapel in London. 

Coral dress and floral jacket

Anne recycled her mother-of-the-bride outfit for Royal Ascot 2012, swapping her fascinator for a wide-brimmed hat

Advertisement

In 2011, Anne excelled with her vibrant mother-of-the-bride outfit. 

The proud parent looked radiant in a floral print jacket, layered over a coral pleated dress that fell to the knee, as she witnessed her daughter, Zara Phillips, tie the knot with Mike Tindall at Canongate Kirk in Edinburgh.

The next year, Anne recycled her ensemble for Royal Ascot, swapping her fascinator for a wide-brimmed hat. 

Orange-trimmed skirt suit

Princess Anne has worn this cream skirt suit with orange trim a handful of times over the years

Anne first wore this sleek skirt suit to Trooping the Colour in 1987.

Since then, she has reached for the two-piece numerous times, including during a three-day visit to Pretoria, South Africa, to mark Queen Elizabeth II’s Diamond Jubilee in 2012.

While her pearl jewellery remains untouched, Anne has paired the look with various hats – and once went bareheaded. 

Initially, she accessorised with an orange fascinator, before opting for a cream chapeau at the 2008 Founders Day Parade at Chelsea Royal Hospital. 

However, Anne wore the outfit sans hat to attend the Centenary Annual meeting of the National Federation of Women’s Institute at the Royal Albert Hall in 2015.

Embellished gown 

Princess Anne demonstrated her fearless fashion sense in this embellished gown, worn in 1989 (left) and 2005 (right)

Advertisement

The Princess demonstrated her fearless fashion sense in this embellished lavender gown. 

In 1989, she wore the vivid design to an event at the Royal Albert Hall, marking the 70th anniversary of the Save the Children fund.

The royal swapped her velvet choker for a three-strand pearl necklace when she rewore the dress to Grosvenor House in 2005.

Fur-trimmed coat 

Debuted in 1976, Anne rewore her fur-trimmed coat in 1983 (left) and 2012 (right)

This fur-lined coat has seen Princess Anne through five decades of winters. 

Aged 23, she wore the pastel-coloured coat to the 1976 wedding of friends Chris Collins and Susanne Lumb, teaming it with a Yvette Jelfs hat and patent boots. 

It reappeared for a meeting with church dignitaries, which she attended with her husband, Mark Phillips, in 1983.

A blue scarf and bag appeared to be the only alterations when Anne sported the look for Christmas Day services at Sandringham in 2003 and 2006.

By 2008, she upgraded her knee-high boots and added a new hat, repeating this combination in 2012.

Cream and navy coat

Princess Anne has worn her smart cream and navy coat on no less than five occasions since 1980

Advertisement

Simple yet striking, this coat is another favourite of Anne’s. 

She first wore the design with a white pillbox hat at Royal Ascot in 1980, recycling the look at the Derby at Epsom Downs in 1985.  

The Princess Royal dusted off the timeless coat for two Buckingham Palace garden parties in 2015.

She repeated the flawless ensemble for the Commonwealth Day service at Westminster Abbey in 2018. 

Yellow coat dress 

Anne has favoured her Susan Small coat dress for significant events throughout the years

Anne has been loyal to this yellow double-breasted coat by Susan Small for over four decades. 

It was initially worn to Trooping the Colour in 1980, teamed with a matching printed dress and wide-brimmed hat – an ensemble that was replicated at the Epsom Derby in 1983. 

After a hiatus, Anne resurrected the coat in 2007 for the Central Benevolent Fund garden party and wore it again to Royal Ascot in 2011 and 2015.

He said national governments around the world ”must choose action over apathy and commit to delivering Net Zero, reducing our reliance on oil and gas, and investing in the large-scale green projects we urgently need to cut emissions, adapt to extreme heat, and protect communities from flooding and wildfires”.

Cambridge University has defended its handling of Jason Arday and said he was provided with range of support before and after his resignation, The Times reports.

Prof Arday, who resigned earlier this month after a plagiarism row, was pronounced dead after emergency services were called an address in Battersea, south London, on Friday to reports that a man had been found unresponsive inside a property.

Prof Arday, a professor of sociology of education who became Cambridge’s youngest black professor in 2023, quit following a series of media reports alleging he plagiarised his PhD thesis – completed at Liverpool John Moores University – and other research.

Further questions were asked in the press about the truth of other claims he made, including saying he ran 600 miles in six days and that he had raised £5.5 million for charity.

An investigation at Liverpool John Moores University cleared Prof Arday of wrongdoing.

Academics and politicians have argued that Cambridge failed to take Prof Arday’s vulnerability seriously when he was appointed to a senior public-facing role in 2023, despite allegations being raised at the time. The allegations resurfaced last month and were widely reported in the press.

In a statement released to The Times, a university spokesperson said Prof Arday was given “the provision of counselling, support and advice, and ­security measures, including the installation of panic alarms and the screening of racist emails and post.”

The spokesperson added: “Our support continued in the face of intense public and media ­scrutiny and after his resignation.”

Following news of Mr Arday’s death, his family said they were “in shock to have lost this amazing father, partner, brother, uncle and son”, in a statement issued through his publisher Simon & Schuster UK.

Reacting to news of his death, some MPs blamed the media for “hounding” Mr Arday, with Jeremy Corbyn saying the 41-year-old had been “turned into a pawn for vicious culture wars”.

But others, such as Conservative MP James Cleverly, said academic institutions had “serious questions to answer” for elevating Mr Arday into “positions he was clearly not qualified for”.

Cambridge’s vice-chancellor Professor Deborah Prentice said on Saturday: “My thoughts and deepest condolences are with Jason’s family and loved ones who, as they said last night, have lost a father, partner, brother, uncle and son.

“My immediate thoughts are also with colleagues and students who worked with Jason in the Faculty of Education, and at Jesus College where he was a Fellow.”

A police forensics tent has been erected in Levenshulme

A large cordon is in place as police are tonight responding to a major incident in south Manchester.

Pictures from the scene show a forensics tent erected in a park off Chapel Street in Levenshulme. Scene of crime officers were also spotted on Chapel Street, which has been taped off by police.

Concerned residents in the area started contacting the Manchester Evening News when they spotted a significant emergency service presence around the park on Saturday evening.

Click here to get the biggest stories straight to your inbox in our Daily Newsletter

The Manchester Evening News has asked Greater Manchester Police for a comment. This story will be updated when more information comes to light.

—

Day in day out, our reporters in the Manchester Evening News newsroom bring you remarkable stories from all aspects of Mancunian life. However, with the pace of life these days, the frenetic news agenda and social media algorithms, you might not be getting a chance to read it.

That’s why every week our Features and Perspectives editor Rob Williams brings you Unmissable, highlighting the best of what we do – bringing it to you directly from us. Make sure you don’t miss out, and see what else we have to offer, by clicking here and signing up for MEN Daily News.

To celebrate the launch, Five Sisters Zoo was delighted to welcome its new friends from Livingston FC for a special World Lion Day celebration.

Five Sisters Zoo has announced a new partnership with Livingston FC, bringing together two local organisations that are right on each other’s doorstep and share a strong connection with the West Lothian community.

To celebrate the launch, Five Sisters Zoo was delighted to welcome its new friends from Livingston FC for a special World Lion Day celebration.

There was no better day for the visit, with Livingston FC’s very own lion mascot, LiviLion, joining staff, players and visitors at the zoo.

Members of Livingston FC’s men’s first team, club staff and LiviLion spent the afternoon meeting visitors, joining in with the celebrations and handing out tickets for an upcoming match. The team also had the chance to meet some of the zoo’s residents, including capybaras and penguins.

As part of the new partnership, Five Sisters Zoo is also supporting Livingston FC’s Lions Roar Kids Club. Children who join the club will be entered into a draw to win an Annual Family Pass to Five Sisters Zoo, as well as receiving a day pass to visit the zoo.

Members will also enjoy a range of exclusive club benefits and matchday experiences, including opportunities to meet the players and management team.

A Five Sisters spokesperson said: “Five Sisters Zoo looks forward to working alongside Livingston FC and creating exciting experiences for children, families and supporters across West Lothian.

“A huge thank you to everyone at Livingston FC for coming along and helping us celebrate World Lion Day. With LiviLion leading the way, it was certainly a roaring start!”

Don’t miss the latest news from the West Lothian Courier. Sign up to our free newsletter

Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia has regularly targeted civilians and civilian infrastructure with missile attacks. The strategy adopted by the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, and his generals is two-fold: to increase the cost of continuing to resist and to erode civilian morale.

The attacks have aimed to disrupt and destroy Ukraine’s military supply and logistics capabilities, its power generation and civilian housing.

The war on the front lines has reached a bloody stalemate, with ever-increasing casualties, especially on the Russian side where more troops are being killed or injured each month than can be recruited and trained. So Russia’s air campaign conducted behind the front line is clearly seen by the Kremlin as having major strategic value.

Major-General Vadym Skibitsky, the deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence directorate, said on August 10 that Russia has restructured its defence production to prioritise the production of long-range ballistic and cruise missiles. It is also reportedly receiving missiles from allies such as North Korea (which is also sending 50,000 more troops to fight in Ukraine).

With the ground war in Ukraine not developing as they wish, Moscow’s military planners increasingly view the Ukrainian homeland as a potential weak link.

Russia will be well aware of reports that the war in Iran has massively depleted US stocks of air defence systems, particularly the Patriot (which stands for phased array tracking radar for intercept on target) and Thaad (terminal high altitude area defense). These are both costly and take a considerable time to replace. US-based thinktank the Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates it could take between three and eight years for America to replenish its stocks to the levels they were at before the conflict began at the end of February.

A single Thaad interceptor missile is reported to cost US$12.77 million (£9.5 million), while Patriots cost around US$4 million each.

With no end to the US conflict against Iran in sight, Patriot missiles will be prioritised for this theatre. And, while there has been discussion of Ukraine being licensed to build its own Patriots, this would take years. The coming winter looks to be extremely challenging for Ukraine.

As combat operations slow on the front lines, Russia will look to use its missile capability to cause increased hardship and suffering. As in previous years, there will be a concerted campaign targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. A lack of air defence systems means more Russian missiles will be able to hit their targets.

In early August, Ukraine’s defence minister, Mikhailo Federov (who has since been removed from post) said “Over the last few months, Russia fires more missiles a week at us than we get from partners over months.”. Only 29 out of 195 Russian ballistic missiles were successfully intercepted in July.

Kyiv’s European allies are trying to go at least some way towards filling the gap. But they need to maintain their own stockpiles to ensure their own security and fulfill their Nato obligations.

Drones: advantages and limitations

But this doesn’t mean Ukraine is unable to mount its own offensive strategy. Kyiv has been using drones to attack key targets: oil storage and refinery facilities, designed to increase pressure on the Russian economy and its ability to export oil on the black market. It is also hitting road and rail infrastructure and bridges, particularly in and around Crimea in a bid to isolate the peninsula.

And, as of August 8, Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces claim to have struck 218 Russian shadow fleet vessels, including 134 in the Sea of Azov and 84 in the Black Sea – another blow to Russia’s oil economy.

Ukraine has also conducted strikes on at least 20 Wildberries warehouses. Wildberries is an e-commerce giant, Russia’s answer to Amazon and an important supplier of battlefield equipment for the Russian military. It also stores and sells goods produced by third-party small and medium-sized firms. The loss of inventory and lack of compensation for those losses, is putting a lot of private business under threat of collapse.

These attacks will take time to have a material effect on the Russian economy. But Russia’s central bank has downgraded its economic growth forecasts, inflation is at an average of 7% a year and interest rates are running at 14%

The use of drones as an instrument of strategy, however, is limited. While they are cheaper and easier to replace, most drones don’t have the same firepower as most ballistic missiles. Ukraine is reportedly developing and deploying improved drones with greater range, enabling Kyiv to hit targets deep inside Russia. But on the whole the power of Ukraine’s drones, thus far at least, is considerably less devastating than Russia’s missiles.

So it’s harder for Ukraine drone strikes to break the will of either the government or population the way Putin is hoping Russia’s onslaught of ballistic missiles might.

The Russian president and his military planners will see Ukraine’s challenges in maintaining its missile defence capability as an opportunity to put Ukraine under severe pressure.

Unless President Volodymyr Zelensky and his war planners can find a way to solve this increasingly urgent problem, this winter could be the harshest of the war to date for the Ukrainian people.