The poll predicts that a Reform breakthrough and a Scottish Green surge could push Labour into fourth place.
The SNP is set for a majority at the upcoming Holyrood election while Labour and the Tories are set to suffer historic collapses, according to a new poll.
The MRP poll for the Herald, conducted by the company which most accurately predicted the results of the 2024 general election, predicts the Scottish Greens could push Anas Sarwar’s Labour into fourth place with Reform UK in second.
First Minister John Swinney and the SNP has argued that winning an outright majority would, in effect, deliver a mandate for a new referendum on independence.
In its final model the polling firm Stonehaven has the SNP on course to win 66 seats, just above the 65-seat threshold needed for a majority.
Reform UK would end up in second place with 21 seats, the Scottish Greens on 14 in third and Scottish Labour on 13 in fourth, according to the poll. If the polling is correct then the two pro-independence parties would have 62 per cent of all MSPs in the Scottish Parliament. Russell Findlay’s Scottish Tories would lose out considerably by returning just seven MSPs – down from 31 in 2021.
The Scottish Conservatives are forecast to return just seven MSPs, down significantly on the 31 won in 2021. The Lib Dems would have eight MSPs.
The model is based on interviews with 3379 people, carried out in seven rounds of polling between early February and late April 2026, with the most recent figures coming from 1289 people surveyed between April 16 and 21.
Keith Brown, the SNP’s depute leader, said: “The SNP is the only party focused on people’s priorities – putting in place a cap on the cost of essential food items, delivering a £2 bus fare cap and rolling out GP walk-in centres across the country. Meanwhile, Labour have nothing positive to say and are fighting it out in fourth place.
“They want people to vote for an opposition to stop things happening, I am asking people to vote for an SNP Government to get things done. “
A Reform spokesperson said: “This shows support for Reform UK is continuing to surge while Labour and the Tories are now irrelevant. If you want to beat the SNP and the extremist Greens vote Reform UK.”
A Scottish Conservative spokesperson said: “This poll highlights the very real threat of an SNP majority, which John Swinney has repeatedly said he will use to push for another referendum.
“But pro-UK voters can prevent that constitutional chaos by backing the Scottish Conservatives on their peach ballot. It’s the tried and tested way to stop an SNP majority.”
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