The fight is on for the Gorton and Denton byelection on February 26. It is a three-way contest between Labour, Reform and the Greens. According to Electoral Calculus, a site which runs regular MRP (multi-level regression post stratification) surveys, Reform will win with 32% of the vote, the Greens will come second on 23.3% and Labour third with 22.6%.

There is however a problem with MRP polls. They produce results that are far more variable than can be accounted for by standard sources of errors in surveys. For example, a different MRP conducted by Electoral Calculus in December last year gave Reform 335 seats, the Greens 52 and Labour 41 in a hypothetical general election.

In contrast, an MRP conducted by More in Common at about the same time gave Reform 381 seats, the Greens nine and Labour 85. Both results are therefore highly questionable.

An alternative approach to forecasting involves conducting small sample surveys in constituencies holding byelections. The trouble is that these are not very accurate – as the recent Caerphilly byelection for the Welsh Senedd proved. Based on polling, many believed Reform was a contender to win but it ended up some way behind Plaid Cymru.

The relationship between the Labour vote in general elections and subsequent byelections, 2010 to 2026:

A third approach is to use historical data on the relationship between byelections and general elections to predict results. If we examine a large number of byelections, then a strong relationship between the two becomes clear.

When you compare the Labour vote share in the 58 byelections held between 2010 and 2025 and the Labour vote in the previous general election in these constituencies. A good result for the party in a general election is likely to produce a fairly good result in a subsequent byelection.

In the 2024 general election, Labour obtained just under 51% of the vote in Gorton and Denton. We can use this to predict what will happen in the byelection.

To improve the accuracy of the forecast, we first need to account for unusual byelections over the years which could distort results. For example, in the Batley and Spen byelection in October 2016, Labour took 86% of the vote. This was because none of the other mainstream parties contested the seat in recognition of Jo Cox, the MP whose murder by a rightwing extremist triggered the byelection.

Equally George Galloway’s Respect party won a byelection in Rochdale in February 2024, just before the general election. This was largely the result of Muslim voters switching their support from Labour because of the party’s refusal to significantly sanction Israel, given what the United Nations described as the genocide in Gaza.

A third factor is that all these byelections happened under a Conservative government except for the Reform win in the Runcorn and Helsby in May 2025. A change of government affects all voters, so this needs to be accounted for in the forecast.

Like all predictions, this one is subject to errors and the modelling is done using a multiple regression analysis. It predicts that Labour will win approximately 37% of the vote.

Reform and Green voting

Unfortunately, we cannot use the same approach to forecast the Reform and Green vote shares because the historical data on the performance of these parties in byelections and general elections is not available. They didn’t fight many of these constituencies in either type of election.

An alternative approach is to focus on the Runcorn and Helsby byelection, which Reform won by a whisker from Labour with just under 39% of the vote. Between the general election and the byelection, the Labour vote share fell by 14%, the Reform vote increased by 20% and the Green vote increased by just under 1%. If Reform repeats this in Gorton and Denton it has a good chance of winning.

However, there are good reasons for thinking that Reform will not be able to do this, because of the socio-economic characteristics of the constituencies. We can compare them with the help of data from the 2021 census to find out what characteristics favour a Reform vote or a Green vote.

The second chart shows the correlations between Reform and Green voting in 2024 and various socio-economic characteristics in the 632 constituencies in Britain. For example, the correlation between Reform voting and Muslim religiosity was negative (-0.48) for Reform and positive for the Greens (+0.20). In other words, many Muslim voters in a constituency weakens support for Reform and boosts it for the Greens.

Correlations with voting Reform and Green in the 2024 general election in 632 constituencies in Britain:

In addition, the presence of many non-white residents and people in professional occupations in a constituency helps the Greens and weakens Reform. In contrast, constituencies with a lot of people over the age of 65 or who think of themselves as “English” (as opposed to British) helps Reform and weakens the Greens.

Socio-economic data in Gorton & Denton and Runcorn & Helsby:

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Gorton and Denton has more professionals and very many more non-white people and Muslims than Runcorn & Helsby, so we can expect a boost for the Green vote. In addition, it has fewer over 65s and English identifiers, which again helps the Greens.

This means that Reform is unlikely to win the byelection since the opposition to Labour will be divided between them and the Greens instead of it all going to Reform, as in Runcorn and Helsby. The Greens could win the byelection, but it is more likely that Labour will win because of the divided opposition.

Several BBC stars came to the same conclusion when discussing Clare Balding

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Having been with the BBC for over three decades, Clare Balding has built a formidable reputation in sports broadcasting.

Since starting her career with the corporation in 1994, Balding has collaborated with numerous sports personalities and has maintained her esteemed status over the years.

Currently leading the coverage of the 2026 Winter Olympics, the 55-year-old continues to play a crucial role in British sports broadcasting and is greatly admired by many who have worked with her.

Among those expressing admiration for Balding is former Team GB downhill skier Chemmy Alcott, who has partnered with her at the Milano Cortina Games. After retiring in 2014 and transitioning to TV presenting, Alcott spoke about the pressures of live broadcasting and praised Balding and the opportunity she’s had to work with her.

Speaking exclusively to The Sun, the ex-skier said: “It’s live. Anything can go wrong or you can have the ride of your life. These are all the same attributes I had to deal with as an athlete… except now I’m doing it next to Clare Balding. She’s an icon and, I’m proud to say, a good friend.

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“So to be working with her on TV is always a ‘pinch me’ moment. I’m just hoping that Clare and I don’t talk about The Traitors the whole time because we absolutely loved it. I became obsessed.”

Balding’s three-decade-plus tenure with the BBC hasn’t been entirely free from controversy, as she found herself facing criticism from viewers during her swimming coverage at the 2024 Paris Olympics.

Whilst interviewing two-time gold medallist Rebecca Adlington, Balding appeared taken aback by the former swimmer’s revelation that Olympic athletes never came to her school during her youth.

Surprised by this disclosure, Balding replied: “What? No (Olympians) visited your school?” Her astonished response prompted backlash from audiences who turned to X to criticise the presenter, with one writing: “Watching the Olympic swimming and Clare Balding said something in such an incredulous tone which summed up the establishment perspective and how their experience differs.

“Because of course Balding thought it TOTALLY NORMAL for Olympic medal winners to visit schools because being privately educated and descended from nobility and privilege this kind of thing is part of the cultural experience they expect.”

Fellow BBC presenter Gabby Logan came to Balding’s defence and expressed her affection and backing for her colleague. Logan’s statement read: “I’m sure lots of what you say may be true about private school experiences, but it’s certainly not true about the whole of the BBC.

“I went to a state school nobody visited, teachers were striking in the 80s, and no school trips. Also to be clear I love my colleague and she’s a great broadcaster. But a sweeping statement about the BBC needed addressing. Look at our Olympics line up across the day, we are a mixed bag from different backgrounds bringing all our many experiences to the way we communicate.”

Balding’s exceptional professionalism saw her entrusted with leading the Wimbledon coverage following Sue Barker’s exit from the BBC. The former tennis professional inadvertently revealed this during the Action Women Awards in 2022 before an official announcement was made.

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Whilst addressing the audience, Barker said: “I just want to say, leaving Wimbledon, it’s incredibly… I’ve loved it all my life. I know I’m leaving it in the safest hands, it’s absolutely wonderful to leave it with Clare. But also Clare, this year at Wimbledon, myself, you and Isa Guha. To have three women presenting Wimbledon for the first time ever.”

Balding also spearheaded the coverage for the 2020 Tokyo Games, working alongside ex-Arsenal and Lionesses player Alex Scott, who delivered a heartfelt tribute to her colleague after concluding her two-week assignment in Japan’s capital.

Sharing a collage of photos with Balding in the BBC studio, Scott penned: “Balders & Scott, to @clarebalding the support/encouragement that you have shown me over the last couple weeks, the highs and the lows, you kept me smiling and loving it all the way to the very end #thankyou. xx. First Olympics with BBC complete.”

Concern for their safety was raised with North Wales Police on Wednesday, February 18. A large-scale operation was launched across the mountain, also known as Yr Wyddfa, involving Llanberis Mountain Rescue Team, Aberglaslyn Mountain Rescue Team, RAF mountain rescuers, search dogs and a coastguard helicopter.

The organisers behind a tribute act known as K-Pop Forever! were forced to respond to rising backlash after droves of dismayed fans ditched a recent show.

The sold-out event took place at the SSE Arena in Belfast on Thursday, with two more shows lined up for this Monday, February 23 and Saturday, May 16.

The official description promises the audience a ‘truly one of a kind, all-action concert’, with smash hits from Blackpink, BTS, Twice, Soda Pop and chart-topper Golden as well as ‘songs inspired by the record-breaking film K-Pop Demon Hunters’.

Described as ‘the ultimate non-stop party for all ages’, the performers include four live vocalists and four ‘world-class dancers’.

Those who attended the show, however, have documented a very different experience.

One viral TikTok from user tara_conaboy, showed a glimpse of the audience all sat on their seats, largely in silence – far from the party atmosphere promised.

The caption read: ‘May aswell of burned the £250 spent on our 5 tickets… The most confusing, underwhelming, boring load of dribble I’ve ever witnessed in my 42 years!’

Other clips circulating online show whole groups of people streaming out of the arena during the show.

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Meanwhile, one parent of a seven-year-old attendee told BBC News that some sections seemed ‘raunchy’ and ‘inappropriate’, and another added it was ‘just horrendous’.

One attendee, Steven Hunter, told Irish News: ‘We knew we were going to a tribute show for the genre, so we understood there would be songs that were unknown to us.

‘Overall, the show was a shambles, from poor sound quality, microphones cutting in and out throughout the show.’

And another, Laura Matthews, said her daughter wanted to ‘leave as soon as it started’.

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Following the backlash, Aiken Promotions and the SSE Arena said in statement that the ‘show played in Belfast tonight as part of a world tour, and the content, design and choreography has been built to represent the full K-Pop genre,’ reiterating the content promises listed on the site.

It concluded: ‘Whilst the majority of customers enjoyed the show, we understand that this was not what some expected; however, we are content that the show delivered this evening was an arena-standard tribute to the entire K-Pop genre.

Several onlookers have come to the defence of the show, saying people should have properly read what was involved and managed their expectations.

‘This is K-Pop music at a K-Pop concert. Hope this helps,’ TikTok user Joanna__ wrote after watching one video.

‘Genuinely wondering what she thought the K on K-Pop stood for,’ another echoed.

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‘I feel so bad for the performers that worked so hard on this just to get complaints,’ odie shared.

‘You went to a tribute show with tribute performers for the entire K-Pop genre. This is on you,’ Derby Pascal pointed out.

The tribute act has global shows planned across 2026, including in Ireland, France, Germany and the Netherlands.

The genre has seen an explosion in popularity in recent years, and is especially loved among a younger demographic.

Hype is already skyrocketing for the long-awaited return of BTS, who are about to embark on a world tour.

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The 2026 Six Nations continues this afternoon, with England hosting Ireland in a tie which could prove pivotal for both sides’ campaigns. England come into the tie off the back of a humbling Calcutta Cup defeat at Murrayfield, which brought the mood in the camp down considerably after they had trounced Wales on matchday one. Ireland, meanwhile, have momentum on their side after they came from behind to beat Italy last time out with a gritty, if imperfect, performance.

Gardai are trying to identify the man following the incident in the heart of the Irish capital’s nightlife district.

An appeal has been launched to identify a man with a distinctive Scottish tattoo who has been left fighting for his life following an alleged attack in Ireland. Emergency crews rushed to Cope Street, just off the old Central Bank building in the Temple Bar area of Dublin, at around 12.30am on Wednesday morning, February 18.

Two men, aged in their 20s and 30s, were arrested on Friday evening in connection with the alleged attack in the heart of the Irish capital’s nightlife district.. The victim was allegedly repeatedly kicked and stamped in the head before an E-bike was dropped on his neck.

The Irish Mirror reports that one of the attackers, who had walked away, allegedly came back and stood over the lifeless victim, who was in the middle of the road, stripped him of his shoes and lobbed them over a fence.

The as-yet unidentified man remains in a critical condition in Beaumont Hospital, where he is being treated for extensive head injuries. In a press release on Thursday, gardai have made the unusual step of asking the public for their assistance in identifying the man – by describing a tattoo on his forearm.

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On Friday evening, Gardai shared an image of the man’s tattoo, which is described as the saltire flag with the words ‘Ceol is Beatha’, meaning ‘music is life’, in the hopes that someone may be able to help identify him. Gardaí are continuing to appeal for any witnesses to this incident to contact them.

“Anyone who was in the area of Cope Street between midnight and 1:00am, and who may have any information about the incident is asked to contact investigating Gardaí,” a Garda spokesperson said.

“Gardaí can be contacted at Pearse Street Garda Station on 01 666 9000, the Garda Confidential Line on 1800 666 111, or any Garda Station. Investigations are ongoing.”

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Asked if he meant that UK and other European allies’ forces should go to safe parts of Ukraine now to “flip a switch”, he said: “Yes, I think, you know, if we are willing to do it in the context of a ceasefire, which of course puts all the initiative, all the power in Putin’s hands, why not do it now?