Tips, races, odds and weather for Thursday

For a gelding who has lost as many races as he has won, Fact To File will be a very short-priced favourite for the Ryanair Chase on Thursday, setting Willie Mullins up for a possible clean sweep of Cheltenham’s feature races.

Those who do oppose him will take comfort from the fact he can bounce a bit after a big win. At Christmas he was below par in the King George after a terrific duel with Gaelic Warrior in the John Durkan, and he had a hard race on heavy ground winning the Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown six weeks ago. 

But you have to set that against his Cheltenham record which is unblemished since he finished runner-up on his first visit in the bumper. He has won the Brown Advisory, and last year’s nine-length win in this race was, visually at any rate, the most impressive at the meeting. He seems to love the place.

Cheltenham Festival day 3 tips and results

1.20: Ryanair Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle

• Marlborough’s tip: BAMBINO FEVER
  Last year’s Champion Bumper winner, last seen running out an easy winner of a maiden hurdle at Fairyhouse. Fancied to take all the beating
• Marcus Armytage’s tip: OLDSCHOOL OUTLAW
  Already has the scalp of the favourite, Bambino Fever
• Charlie Brooks’ tip: BAMBINO FEVER
  Galloped her rivals into oblivion at Fairyhouse last time

2.00: Jack Richards Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase

• Marlborough’s tip: REGENT’S STROLL
  Grade 1 novice hurdler last season who has his first run in a handicap here. Most unexposed over fences; set to run a big race
• Marcus Armytage’s tip: MEETMEBYTHESEA (Nap)
  Looks well handicapped for a winner of five of last seven starts
• Charlie Brooks’ tip: SIXMILEBRIDGE
  One of the best home chances this season for top local trainer

2.40: Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle

• Marlborough’s tip: WODHOOH
  Winning machine over hurdles, having won nine of her 10 starts since switched to Gordon Elliott (two from two at Cheltenham). Very much the one to beat
• Marcus Armytage’s tip: WODHOOH
  With Lossiemouth already tucked up in her stable back in Ireland, it is this prolific winner’s to lose
• Charlie Brooks’ tip: WODHOOH (Nap)
  The only mare that can beat her is Lossiemouth. Banker

3.20: Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle

• Marlborough’s tip: TEAHUPOO
  Top-class staying hurdler who goes particularly well when fresh. Strong record in this race and taken to run another massive race off a 74-day lay-off
• Marcus Armytage’s tip: MA SHANTOU
  Progressive youngster who won at the course in January up against some ageing former stars
• Charlie Brooks’ tip: TEAHUPOO
  Rock solid over course and distance

4.00: Ryanair Chase

• Marlborough’s tip: FACT TO FILE
  Last year’s Ryanair winner who showed his wellbeing with an impressive winning display at Leopardstown last month. Strong fancy
• Marcus Armytage’s tip: FACT TO FILE
  Runaway winner of this last year, could have gone for Gold Cup but this looks easier option
• Charlie Brooks’ tip: FACT TO FILE
  The best horse in Ireland – could win a Gold Cup if owner wanted

4.40: Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle

• Marlborough’s tip: ABSOLUTELY DOYEN
  Novice hurdler who has shot through the ranks this season, winning all five of his starts since switching to Paul Nicholls. Taken to go very well again
• Marcus Armytage’s tip: C’EST DIFFERENT
  Winner of last four starts, all in handicaps, and looks like there’s more to come over this distance
• Charlie Brooks’ tip: MELBOURNE SHAMROCK
  Brilliantly shrewd trainer, you have to stick with him

5.20: Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Steeple Chase

• Marlborough’s tip: KIM ROQUE (Nap)
  On a good mark and fancied to appreciate the step up in trip. This race may well have been the plan all season; looks a major player
• Marcus Armytage’s tip: HERAKLES WESTWOOD
  Course winner last time out with good Irish amateur on board
• Charlie Brooks’ tip: KIM ROQUE
  Feels like Joseph O’Brien has trained him for this

Ryanair Chase runner-by-runner

Owner JP McManus looks to hold a particularly strong hand here and could end up filling the first two places home as his pair of Jonbon and Fact To File both look to hold outstanding claims. Jonbon has long dined at the top table and has been a star for connections. Indeed, a Cheltenham Festival win is one of the few things that has evaded Jonbon so far, having finished runner-up on all three runs at this meeting previously. Conversely, Fact To File has won on two of his three visits to this meeting, including an impressive nine-length win in this race last year. He comes forward off the back of taking a five-length victory in the Irish Gold Cup (denying the likes of Gaelic Warrior and Galopin Des Champs) and, in calmer waters, he is expected to take all the beating here.

Banbridge
Top-class chaser but has seemed to go better right-handed than left in recent seasons. Big chance on his best but not certain to produce it here.

Croke Park
Last seen running down the field in a handicap at Leopardstown last month, form that leaves him a long way short of what will be required here.

Fact To File
Record at the Festival reads 211 and brings forward the best form in the race. Looks especially potent at this distance; takes all the beating here.

Heart Wood
Second in this race last year and had a good season so far, winning two of his three starts. This demands more though; place chance.

Impaire Et Passe
Just the one start so far this season and faces a tough task off just the one run this campaign; each-way player all the same.

Jonbon
Incredible performer who has never finished out of the first two in 27 starts under rules. Unbeaten beyond two miles and looks the clear danger to Fact To File.

JPR One
Been plying his trade in handicaps all season and now steps into Grade 1 company. Tough task; best watched.

Master Chewy
Comes up short repeatedly in Graded company of late and this is likely to be no exception; best watched.

Matata
Good winner on New Year’s Day, the form of which would give him a squeak here; could run into a place.

Big-race trends

Mares Novices Hurdle
A tough race to get a handle on from a trends perspective, due in large part to the fact there have only been 10 runnings. What we do know is that 10 out of 10 winners were aged five or six and seven out of 10 were trained in Ireland.

Stayers’ Hurdle
Key metrics here are pre-race rating and success at the trip. A total of nine of the last 12 winners were sent off with a rating of at least 156 – which is plenty high enough for a staying hurdler. It is also worth noting that nine of the last 12 winners have at least one win at three miles or further. It can be a risky strategy to roll the dice on a horse which has yet to prove himself at the trip. In terms of trials, Cheltenham’s Cleeve Hurdle is a decent yardstick, having produced four winners in the last 12 years. This year’s winner was Ma Shantou, who beat Impose Toi by seven lengths.

Ryanair Chase
An open race so age is a consideration here and all of the last 12 winners have been between the age of seven and nine, with nine of those 12 having at least one win at Cheltenham before winning the Ryanair. Look for quality horses also, with 11 of the last 12 winners having been rated 162 or higher before running and nine of those 12 having at least one win in a Grade 1.

Cheltenham Festival day 3 ground and weather

The latest ground report has the official going as Good to Soft as racing switches to the New Course. However, the forecast on Thursday is for rain to move in during the afternoon, with strong winds, and continue through the night.

Betting on Cheltenham?

There’s a lot of competition between bookmakers for customers during the festival and they will often run their best promotions of the year, especially earlier in the week. Take a look at these Cheltenham betting offers to find free bets to use throughout the week.

How to watch Cheltenham Festival day 3

Viewers in the United Kingdom can watch the first five races of the day on ITV1, with coverage beginning at 12.45pm GMT every day until 5pm GMT. The races can also be streamed via ITVX. There is a preview show each morning from 9am GMT to 10am GMT which is shown on ITV4 and ITVX.

The final race of each day will not be shown on ITV but will be live on Racing TV. Subscriptions for the channel, which shows every race from the Festival, are available through Sky and Virgin Media and online through its website and app.