The El Niño weather phenomenon could bring about freezing conditions and snow this winter
UK households are being urged to stock up on vital food and essential items before winter arrives, should concerns that a severely cold, snow-filled season triggered by the El Niño weather phenomenon prove correct.
Climate specialists have warned a polar vortex could bring harsher conditions and snowfall across the UK this winter, as the El Niño weather phenomenon drives temperatures down. El Niño has been a major contributor to this year’s scorching conditions, with the warming of the ocean’s surface having a substantial impact on global weather systems, producing temperatures significantly above the seasonal average.
It is widely thought to have played a role in the UK’s five record-breaking heatwaves witnessed during the summer. While nothing can be confirmed at this point, the El Niño weather front triggers changes in high and low pressure systems.
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The stability of a polar vortex – the mass of cold air that typically circulates above the North and South poles – is vulnerable to disruption from high-altitude jet streams. When destabilised, it can push freezing temperatures and snowfall into the US and throughout Europe.
According to USA Today, El Niño can interact with the polar vortex, reports the Express.
It reports: “The polar vortex above the Arctic is linked to the jet stream. Both can be impacted by El Niño, and bring about changes in our weather patterns, said Darryn Waugh, a professor in Earth and Planetary Sciences at Johns Hopkins University.
“El Niño drives changes in the high- and low-pressure patterns in the troposphere, the lowest layer of Earth’s atmosphere where weather happens, said Amy Butler, a physicist at NOAA’s Chemical Sciences Laboratory.”
The Met Office states that a hot summer doesn’t guarantee a cold winter, and that this supposed direct correlation is merely a misconception. Nevertheless, the El Niño phenomenon could potentially be responsible for the UK experiencing freezing conditions this approaching winter, although this remains uncertain.
In its most recent weather blog released this week, the forecaster explained: “Through the latter part of the winter, following a peak in El Niño, the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) can become weaker, leading to an increased chance of Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events unfurling, increasing the potential for cold weather.
“However, significant as El Niño is, it is important to emphasise that it alone does not determine precise weather patterns and other outcomes remain possible.”
Government warning
The warning comes as the Government is preparing to launch a nationwide campaign to ensure the public is informed about essential supplies, evacuation routes and emergency contacts, following an official survey revealing that just 13% of people consider their household to be largely or wholly prepared for a disaster.
Security Minister Dan Jarvis has stated his intention to make communities as resilient as possible, acknowledging that the country is likely to face “a number of challenges” in the coming months.
When questioned about whether the public should be concerned about El Niño – which could heighten the risk of storms this autumn and winter – Mr Jarvis said: “Well, it’s been quite a tough summer. The prime minister has made a commitment to do a wildfire summit and we’ll be honouring that commitment.
“I think we have to be prepared for the winter. We’ll see what weather comes, but on the balance of probabilities, there will be a number of challenges that we have to face over the course of this coming winter.”
Mr Jarvis continued: “The campaign will make sure that there is a much greater understanding of the kind of really sort of simple, low-level things that everybody can do in their own household to make sure that they are as resilient as possible, and that resilience at a local level gives us a much greater resilience at a regional and then at a national level as well.”
Six food items
Direct Energy advises that, should snow pose a threat, households ought to prepare by purchasing non-perishable food items and essentials in case access to local shops becomes impossible, or in the event of a power cut, ensuring you won’t go without while waiting for severe weather to subside.
Households should ensure they have these ,on-perishable food that doesn’t need cooking, such as ready-to-eat tinned meat, fruit or vegetables (and a tin opener). They added there were six food and drink items to stock up on:
- Bottled water – there is no standard figure for this as emergencies can vary in duration and people use different amounts. A minimum of 2.5-3 litres of drinking water per person per day is recommended by the World Health Organisation for survival. 10 litres per person per day will make you more comfortable by also providing for basic cooking and hygiene needs. Additional water might be needed to make up baby formula, for medical devices and for pets.
- Bread
- Milk
- Tinned goods, especially warming foods like soups and stews
- Snack foods, such as crisps, crackers and cookies in sealed packages
- Cereal and granola
- Dried pasta and jars of sauce
In its online guidance on preparing for a snowstorm, the company stated: “After heavy snowfall or blizzard conditions, you could find yourself snowed in for days.
“Getting cut off from your local grocery store could be made worse by a prolonged power outage, which would leave you with just a few hours to enjoy the remaining contents of your fridge safely. But if you stock your pantry with filling shelf-stable foods, you won’t go hungry while waiting for the snow to be cleared.”
Eight further items to keep at home
In the government campaign, there were further key items for households to keep at home:
- Battery or wind-up torch – torches are safer than candles.
- Portable power bank for charging your mobile phone.
- Battery or wind-up radio to get updates during a power cut – a car radio can be used, however in severe weather it might be safer to stay inside.
- Spare batteries for torches and radio and a backup battery for any medical equipment you rely on.
- A first aid kit (or some first aid items) including items such as waterproof plasters, bandages, a thermometer, antiseptic, eyewash solution, sterile dressings and gloves, medical tape for dressings, and tweezers.
- Hand sanitiser and wet wipes for hygiene purposes when the water is off.
- Food for pets.
- Baby supplies such as nappies and baby formula – ready made or ‘ready-to-feed’ formula is best as you may not be able to boil water or sterilise bottles.
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