Unionist parties could win tight majority at Holyrood election, new poll suggests

The poll, if replicated at the election, could make the SNP vulnerable to losing power at Holyrood for the first time since 2007.

A new poll has found the pro-UK parties could hold the majority in Holyrood after the election. The survey, carried out for More in Common, suggested the SNP would continue to be the largest party.

But John Swinney’s party and the pro-independence Greens would fall one seat short of a majority, leaving the SNP vulnerable. Such a result could lead to the pro-UK parties teaming up to install Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar as First Minister.

More than 5,000 Scots were spoken between February 4 and April 10 for the poll. According to the survey, the SNP would drop to 56 seats – down from 64 at the last election.

Reform UK would move into second place on 22 seats, while Labour would fall to 17 MSPs and remain in third. Nigel Farage’s party would be the main winner on the regional lists, with at least two MSPs in every area and up to four in West Scotland.

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The Tories would drop to 12 seats, compared with 31 in 2021. The Lib Dems would jump to 14 MSPs – eight of which would be in constituencies.

The Scottish Greens, who are projected to take eight seats, would claim their first constituencies in Glasgow Kelvin and Maryhill, as well as Edinburgh North Eastern and Leith.

Even though the pro-indy parties are projected to lose their majority in this poll, the SNP would likely argue they would have the moral mandate to continue in office.

Despite being projected to come second, no other party would likely vote for Reform leader Malcolm Offord to become FM. If the pro-UK parties were determined to topple the SNP, they could put Sarwar in Bute House instead.

More in Common found that 39 of the 73 constituency seats in Scotland are considered marginal, the pollster’s UK director Luke Tryl said.

“Having been in power for almost two decades, the SNP are clearly suffering from the curse of incumbency that has afflicted governments around the world,” he said.

“Although they look set to maintain power in Holyrood it will almost certainly be with significantly diminished vote share and this model estimates a lower seat count too.

“The SNP benefit however from a further fragmentation of the unionist vote with Reform UK emerging as the strongest unionist party and official opposition as Farage finally breaks through north of the border.”