Why Makerfield By-Election Is A Seismic Moment For Politics

June 18 is set to be a seismic moment in British politics.

Voters in Makerfield will decide who they want to be their new MP in a race between Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, and Reform’s local plumber Robert Kenyon.

If Burnham wins, he will likely look to overthrow Keir Starmer as prime minister.

If Kenyon wins, all-out civil war will break out in Labour, as MPs remain mutinous under Starmer’s leadership.

The by-election was triggered by Labour MP Josh Simons, who stood aside so Burnham could run for parliament.

After Labour’s horrific performance in the elections in England, Wales and Scotland on May 7, MPs are desperate to turn the party’s fortunes around.

As the most popular Labour politician in the country right now, many MPs believe only the mayor can lift the party out of its slump in the polls and beat Reform’s rise.

Burnham was an MP between 2001 and 2017, and became a minister in the governments of Tony Blair and Gordon Brown.

He ran for Labour leadership elections in 2010 and 2015 – then promised not to run again, but evidently has his eye on the red throne once more.

Burnham was blocked from his attempts to be an MP by Labour’s executive body, the National Executive Committee, in February, on Starmer’s orders.

But the PM is no longer strong enough to block the mayor after multiple ministers and almost 100 MPs called on him to resign over the local elections.

It’s not a straight-forward contest, though.

There’s absolutely no guarantee Burnham will win this by-election, given Reform won all eight council wards in the constituency earlier this month.

Makerfield voted heavily for Brexit in the 2016 referendum, which makes life especially tricky for Remainer Burnham.

He said only last year he hopes to see the UK back in the EU in his lifetime.

Reform are likely to highlight the mayor’s pro-EU views and turn voters against him. Nigel Farage is already calling him “Open Borders Burnham”.

The right-wing party is also trying to paint the by-election as a “David vs Goliath” battle, by suggesting Burnham will only see the constituency as a stepping stone on the way to No.10.

The result is set to be on a knife-edge.

The fate of the Labour Party also rests on the outcome because a Burnham victory would almost certainly trigger a leadership contest.

Labour rules state a rebellious MP needs the support of at least 81 MPs to invoke a leadership race – a threshold Burnham is widely expected to reach.

Ex-health secretary Wes Streeting is also predicted to run on his own ticket to be the next prime minister, hoping to appeal more to the right of the party.

Other potential candidates include former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner, energy secretary Ed Miliband, defence secretary John Healey, and veterans minister Al Carns.

But, if the mayor loses to Reform in Makerfield, all eyes will be on Streeting to see if he triggers a challenge to his old boss.

Would he have the support of enough MPs to topple the prime minister?

Listen to this week’s Commons People as we look at Burnham’s popularity, the fractures in the Labour Party and how Starmer’s future hinges on voters in Makerfield.

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