The party’s election result is still being pored over and there are feelings of anger, disappointment and bitterness
“We’re f**ked”. The bluntness of the statement from a senior Labour figure stopped me in my tracks. I’d asked how they saw the party’s chances on May 7 when Wales went to the polls. It was neither the sentiment nor the delivery that shocked me, but the honesty because, at that point, with months to go until the election day, few were admitting just how bad things looked.
At that time, party figures and candidates were publicly repeating the line that polls can be wrong. People kept saying Labour’s established, well-oiled ground machine would generate a late bounce for the party in Wales.
Behind the scenes, people inside Welsh Labour had known it was not looking good for a long time. And as the days and weeks passed with no change in the polls, staff and candidates were openly talking about their next jobs. By the time the election approached, activists knew, candidates knew, the First Minister herself knew.
As she arrived at her count in Llandysul she knew it would be to hear – in the most public way – her efforts had been in vain and she was out of a job. “I take responsibility for this result,” she said in her speech. For our free daily briefing on the biggest issues facing the nation, sign up to the Wales Matters newsletter here
When the 1.2m votes had all been counted, the result showed Labour’s 100-year-plus dominance in Wales – a record unmatched in western democracy was over. This year’s election had the highest ever turnout in a Welsh election since devolution began. And just 11% of those who voted backed Labour. It was as bad as it could have been.
The party is, it’s true to say, still trying to understand what went wrong and formal processes to make sense of it are underway including a review, but since the election WalesOnline has spoken to figures in the party to discuss what happened, and whether the catastrophic losses they had in May could be repeated when council elections take place in Wales in 10 months time.
From those sources there is anger, bitterness and disbelief at what happened, in the build-up to the campaign, during it and what has happened since and plenty of questions.
Who is to blame?
In the days afterwards senior figures in the party all had their say. Former First Minister’s Carwyn Jones, Vaughan Gething and Mark Drakeford all set their thoughts out, then Welsh secretary Jo Stevens did too.
Carwyn Jones told LabourList “political traditions do not survive on sentiment alone”.
Vaughan Gething said things might have been more positive if he was still in charge. Mark Drakeford listed ten reasons it all went wrong, while Jo Stevens put the blame at the door of both Cathays Park and Downing Street.
It’s important to remember, as many of the above knew, it wasn’t just a catastrophic night in Wales. The same days brought poor results in Scotland and English councils. But in a Welsh context, across all those we spoke to, no single reason was identified but the blame was not once put at the door of Eluned Morgan, the Welsh Labour leader since August 2024.
Instead two main themes emerged.
The first was that even diehard supporters accepted Labour’s unbeaten run in Wales always had to come to an end. Many admit that without the pandemic and Mark Drakeford’s unexpectedly sky high approval ratings at the time of the 2021 election mean this result could well have happened five years ago.
But that doesn’t mean the fall was always destined to be so catastrophic. Labour’s collapse was intensified by the unpopularity of Keir Starmer coupled with the residual impact of Vaughan Gething taking huge donations from a criminal in Wales and some deeply unpopular political decisions here.
While some decisions by Eluned Morgan, mainly personnel ones were questioned, no-one spoken to for this article believed she could have done more.
“She was dealt a bad hand,” said one. “She couldn’t have done more” said another. The train was already moving “no matter how much she pulled the brakes she couldn’t slow the train down,” said a third.
In fact, most praise her energy, resilience and leadership. Many said that when she, in her speech on the stage of a school in Llandysul that it was all on her that was noble, but not right.
Unpopular policies cut through
Those knocking on doors are the best barometer of how things are going. While they were tasked with campaigning on a narrative of “stick with us”, “things will get better” when doors were being knocked it didn’t matter to someone that NHS waiting times were improving because they were still waiting, they still couldn’t get a GP appointment, their kids were still going growing up poor.
The residual anger at 20mph, not necessarily the policy per se, but the way it was introduced, and a feeling it was being forced on people came up too, despite it being something from two First Ministers previously. Expanding the Senedd was also unpopular.
Across Wales, people had reasons for being disillusioned with Labour. In south west Wales, healthcare has become an increasing sore point. In Newport, many never forgave the failure to solve the problems on the M4. Rail underfunding painted a picture of a party group in Wales unable to influence its own party leadership on an undefendable error.
Years of being in government had led to the party accumulating years of grievances.
“It doesn’t matter what you say to someone who doesn’t believe you,” one seasoned campaigner said.
It was impossible to get people to buy the narrative the party tried to push of ‘better the devil you know’, people told us. Plaid’s message was good, was different, and impossible to beat.
Labour’s warring factions
When Eluned Morgan took over from Vaughan Gething, she was the only person to put her name forward. She did so on a joint ticket with Huw Irranca-Davies.
The idea was that two people who had backed opposing horses in the leadership race earlier that year were the only possible way to unite a divided Senedd group.
But Welsh Labour isn’t just the Senedd group. There are MPs, activists, staff and campaigners, as well as councillors and MPs, all with their own connections.
In no sense were they ever united. The banner of Labour inevitably encompasses a range of beliefs and groups, and the party’s factionalism had been intensified by everything that happened in 2024.
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Vaughan Gething
You cannot talk about Labour’s issues without talking about Vaughan Gething. While he and those around him were, and are still, resolute in their belief that nothing was wrong with him accepting a £200,000 donation towards his leadership campaign, it was something voters, members and party staff all had opinions on.
He took over in March 2024 and for most of that time questions over his campaign.
It was described to us that by the time the general election campaign in Wales in 2024 started, it was more about showing support to the embattled Mr Gething than anything else. He was put front and centre, his picture of leaflets, the Prime Minister stood with him.
For those who didn’t support his decision to accept the donation, it was incredibly hard to watch. They were the ones hearing on doorsteps about the perception people had and that decision to try protect Mr Gething, at all costs, got into, I was told, the psyche of staff.
The general election was about protecting him and making Keir Starmer Prime Minister, not about Wales, we were told.
When Mr Gething resigned, for those who had backed him were distraught at how short his term had been, for those who backed Mr Miles they were bitter their guy hadn’t got the chance, and there was the ongoing impact the drawn-out debacle had on the Labour brand.
While the Senedd group rallied behind Team Miles or Team Gething, there was real personal bitterness on show too. It wasn’t just between, say Lee Waters and Vaughan Gething, or even between those who thought there was no case to answer on the donation and those who thought it was a complete failure to read the room, it was describing as going beyond the Senedd meeting room and rubbing off on others in Labour and people with historic grievances joined their side, dug their trenches and resolutely refused to move.
It should also be noted the party is still awaiting the results of a review led by Carwyn Jones into the leadership campaign donations that ended Mr Gething’s tenure as First Minister so the chapter isn’t closed.
Lack of ‘respect’ for Eluned Morgan
When Eluned Morgan took over, she inherited a party which had made poor political decisions and with a leadership that had been “hollowed out”, as it was put to us.
“The party wasn’t functioning,” one senior source said. That, combined with a lack of a solid leadership operation, meant this wasn’t going to be like other tough elections in 2017 or 2019 they felt.
She walked into the role with little authority partly because she’d made it clear, by not standing and in interviews, it wasn’t a role she wanted. The same group of Senedd colleagues now backing her hadn’t when she had embarked on a leadership bid.
While she appointed Huw Irranca-Davies as her deputy, she turned to two party stalwarts in Kevin Brennan and then in turn Wayne David as advisors. That was something that bemused many. Experienced, yes, but Westminster figures who critics felt were not equipped in the face of an unprecedented threat and election like no other before.
With the clock ticking, Luke Young, the party’s former head of communications was then brought in as the First Minister’s chief special advisor to try sort out the chaotic approach being taken at the top.
However, there was, more than one source said, never enough respect shown to her as leader of Welsh Labour. The party was responding to UK Labour or the Wales Office, not Eluned Morgan, as one described it.
The relationship between the party and its leader was strained too. “They just ignored her,” one said of Eluned Morgan, adding: “They wouldn’t have treated Carwyn, Rhodri or Mark like that”.
“I have never seen a leader treated so badly, with so little respect,” as one source phrased it.
The so-called glass cliff describes how women, and people of colour, are often put in a position of leadership at difficult times. More than one person used this phrase to say how they felt Wales’ first First Minister was appointed to begin with, and then treated throughout her time in office.
Leadership at the top
The buck should, many of those spoken to for this article believe, stop with Joe Lock. He is, after all, the top figure in Welsh Labour. Appointed as Labour’s acting general secretary nine days before the snap 2024 General Election was called. He was confirmed in role in October 2024.
Multiple sources have asked how Mr Lock has remained in position given he is the man who oversaw first the by-election loss in Caerphilly and then the Senedd election, both catastrophic for the party.
“There was a complete lack of leadership in the organisation,” it was said. There were, simply, “too many cooks”.
“The culture wasn’t right,” someone explained, saying there was no teamwork, people competing, people had backed their horse in the leadership contest and bedded down.
UK Labour’s role
Many in Wales feel that UK Labour failed to grasp that the threat in this election was Plaid Cymru not Reform UK. They feel that the UK party saw this election through the prism of UK politics and were focused solely on trying to save Keir Starmer. Reform’s surge here might even allow the UK party to rally support at the next UK General Election by pointing to the threat Nigel Farage’s party posed.
While Eluned Morgan was credited with putting in the hours, and miles, more than one person said they did not believe UK Labour – nor some in Welsh Labour – were in it for her to win it.
By now, Keir Starmer was in trouble too. Senior figures across UK and Welsh Labour decided, as a source put it, “we’re just going to lose Wales to save Keir”.
When the Caerphilly by-election took place in October 2025, in the saddest of circumstances for the party, it showed everything many had been saying would come true – the threats from Plaid and Reform, the change in voters mindsets – were right. It gave a signal to both Plaid Cymru that they could win somewhere they never had before, and to Labour their fears of a hiding were real.
Those in the Welsh ranks say there were long-term trends they had seen that were ignored more widely. The biggest threat was losing left and left of centre voters to Plaid Cymru. While those in the Welsh campaign maintain they kept reiterating to their UK colleagues the threat to Labour in Wales was from Plaid Cymru, they insisted centrally on fighting Reform UK.
The main distinguishing feature between the two parties was independence. Rhun ap Iorwerth had a clear line in opposition to his predecessor as Plaid leader – he wouldn’t pursue it in any first term. No matter what Labour said, campaigners say they were unable to make headway by attacking this.
A chaotic campaign
As they readied for the Senedd election, the party’s selection process for their candidates was cripplingly slow. It took until well into autumn 2025 for the list of candidates to be confirmed. With so many figures standing down, new candidates need time to establish themselves. They didn’t get it.
The machinery did not move quickly enough to support candidates. Even things like leaflets and campaign messages, while incumbents knew they could proactively send things for approval, those new to campaigning felt they were waiting too long.
There was a mix of disbelief and anger that weeks out, the First Minister was yet to be given a campaign director for Wales. Then, just weeks out Matt Greenough, one of Carwyn Jones’ right hand men was brought in. By then, the Titanic was on course for the iceberg.
“The campaign was a mess,” one senior source said. There was a lack of dynamism in the campaign, said another.
Even those at the top admitted that elections had changed beyond all recognition. The type of campaigns Labour has fought before have changed and the party wasn’t quick enough to adapt.
There was a chaotic staffing structure surrounding the First Minister. As well as eyebrows being raised about appointments she made, and that a narrative of “a new generation” was their slogan, yet there were a host of incumbent candidates. How could she, a politician who has been in the public eye for decades stand claiming her party was new?
Complacency and acceptance
More than one person has told us of the differing approaches and effort by candidates across Wales. In one area, Blaenau Gwent and Caerfilli, multiple sources told us that on election day, the number of doors knocked on election day itself was in the single figures.
“Some people didn’t deserve to win,” we were told.
As polls and their own sampling showed how bad things would get motivation inevitably slipped too. For all the Haribo that fuelled the First Minister, there wasn’t enough to motivate battered troops.
Post-election changes
Since the election there has been lots of soul-searching. People who thought they would be elected, or re-elected to the Senedd weren’t. The party may have realised it would be a bad night, but it was as bad as it could get.
Staffing changes and redundancies are being made at Transport House. Staff in, for example, communications and digital media teams have been cut and senior figures like Bridie Sedgebeer and Alvin Shum have been dismissed.
Some is a natural return to a non-election period when staff in campaigning roles in the Welsh party return to their day jobs but many have questioned the dismissal, in particular, of Ms Sedgebeer, who was made deputy general secretary in January 2025.
There is also a financial impact of losing your position of dominance.
The party is funded by unions, but also membership and donations, when the latter two dry up so does the pot. With another election looming, the party has to ensure it will have to be able to fund campaigns and an easy way of saving funds is cutting salaries.
The party gets a group allowance from the Senedd determined by numbers – albeit the formula does take into account whether a party is in government so the drop from the last Senedd to this one is in some regard softened
The countdown to May 2027
With morale at a low, questions over money, experienced staff gone, and an impending election campaign there are few who think Ken Skates can stem another inevitable hammering at the elections for all 22 councils in Wales in May 2027.
“Council elections look like a bloodbath,” one said, “unless Burnham can steady things”.
The key question isn’t necessarily how Labour performs – especially given the party’s expected approach is to make it effectively a referendum on Plaid’s first year in government. But how rivals Reform UK and Plaid Cymru can mobilise good people to stand as candidates. “There are no safe areas for Labour councils,” one said.
Even on a good night, an experienced campaigner said Labour should be preparing for “hundreds” of seats to be lost.
What has to change
When you ask what has to change, the responses vary.
“It has to be wholesale,” one senior UK Labour figure said. There has to be a willingness from UK Labour to listen to Wales. Others say that despite loyalties, factions and friendships, there needs to be a clearout and new blood brought in.
As Labour fell from a party of government to one with just nine of the available 96 seats, and a distant third in terms of parties in the Welsh Parliament, a new leader had to be found. The timetable to formally appoint Ken Skates as leader – a role he has held on an interim basis since the day after the election results were counted – was sped up when no-one else expressed an interest.
Mr Skates says he will spend the summer meeting party members in constituencies across Wales. He says he will also publish a “mission statement” spelling out what he thinks the party needs to stand for.
The problem many see is that when Ken Skates became the only person who wanted to put his name forward, he brought with years of baggage.
He was a staunch supporter of Vaughan Gething and he has been in successive governments. For those who people who couldn’t stomach Eluned Morgan’s message that she was promoting on the election campaign of a new chapter, there are questions about how Ken Skates can also now be something “new”.
His early decisions to appoint staff from Eluned Morgan’s team to his new leader’s office was something multiple people commented on. He told WalesOnline he would be ruthless if needed, but people fear the loyalty is overtaking that.
Since the result, more than one source asked how those who determined the strategy and delivered a disastrous campaign have kept their roles. That starts for many with the role of Joe Lock, the Welsh general secretary. How, more than one asked, can the person at the top of the organisation which suffered two historic election losses in Caerphilly and then on a national scale, remain in post.
The arrival of Andy Burnham as Prime Minister throws another unknown into the mix. As does the departure this autumn of Holly Ridley, the UK general secretary described by one as Mr Lock’s “last line of defence”.
What Welsh Labour says
We put the main themes of these interviews to Labour, including the criticism of Joe Lock and asking what the party thought what went wrong and how chances for May’s election looked.
A spokesperson said: “May’s election results were catastrophic for the Party in Wales and we’re not shying away from that. Ken Skates is clear that he is focussed on listening to voters and members to learn lessons. He’s doing just that as he visits constituencies across the country. We’ll continue to stand up for communities across Wales.”
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