Will the UK have gas supplies over summer due to Iran war?

As prices surge due to the conflict in the Middle East, the country’s gas system operator has now had their say.

National Gas expects gas stocks in Great Britain to be sufficiently high to allow some supplies to be exported to mainland Europe.

The organisation, which operates Britain’s National Transmission System (NTS), published its outlook for summer 2026 against a turbulent global energy backdrop.

Why have oil and gas prices risen?

Oil and gas prices have climbed sharply since hostilities escalated between US‑Israeli and Iranian forces in late February.

UK natural gas futures reached about 120.7 pence per therm on Monday (April 13), up from roughly 78 pence per therm before the conflict began.

Forecasts were prepared ahead of the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East but National Gas said it has reviewed its analysis since and concluded that the market is expected to still have sufficient capacity and capability to meet forecasts.

Glenn Bryn-Jacobsen, director of energy systems and resilience at National Gas, said: “While the situation in the Middle East has understandably raised questions about Britain’s gas supplies, our forecasts indicate the market has the capacity to deliver sufficient supply to meet demand this summer.

“The diversity of supply sources, including domestic production, Norway, LNG and storage, provides resilience and flexibility as supply flows and demand patterns change.”

What are the current gas forecasts?

Demand for gas is forecast to be similar to summer 2025, according to the projections.

National Gas expects a roughly 6% reduction in gas demand used for electricity generation, but said this will be largely offset by an expected 2% rise in non-daily metered demand from residential and commercial consumers.

Ian Radley, chief commercial officer at National Gas, said: “Gas continues to play a critical role in supporting the electricity system, even during the summer months.

“As renewable output fluctuates, gas‑fired power stations are increasingly required to respond quickly, and the network must be able to support that safely and reliably.

“It is important that ongoing, co-ordinated action between Government, industry and regulators continues to address future risks arising from declining domestic production and an increasing reliance on imports.”