The headline figures from a recent YouGov poll of Scots’ voting intentions were bad enough for Labour – but further analysis suggests deeper problems for the party.
It’s difficult to name just one blunder by the UK Government to explain Scottish Labour’s dismal polling numbers. But the winter fuel payment fiasco would top many people’s lists.
Many older voters were dismayed at the way the policy was announced – and the eventual U-turn came too late to stop other parties from capitalising from the public disquiet.
Labour’s popularity in Scotland has dropped sharply since Keir Starmer’s election in 2024. There’s no getting away from it. But it’s the youngest voters who appear most disillusioned with the party – not the oldest.
The headline figures from a recent YouGov poll of Scots’ voting intentions were bad enough for Labour, but further analysis suggests deeper problems for the party.
More than 60 per cent of younger voters – those aged from 16 – 24 – plan to back the SNP or Greens. That’s a problem for Anas Sarwar, who still insists he can replace John Swinney as the next First Minister.
The poll suggests just 12 per cent of voters aged 16-24 will vote for Labour in the constituencies, while only nine per cent plan to back them on the list vote.
In comparison, 35 per cent of the same age group support the SNP in the constituencies and a further 31 per cent back the Scottish Greens.
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Intriguingly, support for Reform among younger Scots is just 12 per cent in constituencies but jumps to 21 per cent on the list. Given the vote slippage seen at council by-elections, it’s likely this number includes a sizeable chunk of former Labour voters.
So why are young Scots turning their back on Labour?
The SNP and Greens would point to popular policies like free bus passes for those under the age of 22, a plan supported by both parties. Young Scots are least likely to have a car. The bus pass they use on a near-daily basis is a visible reminder of government in action.
Those parties would also point to the unpopularity of Keir Starmer, which cuts across all age groups in multiple polls.
The Prime Minister faced fierce criticism for the UK Government’s response to the Israel-Hamas war, which saw tens of thousands killed in Palestine.
Anyone who saw one of the regular pro-Palestine marches in any Scottish city would have noticed the high percentage of protesters in their teens or 20s. This was an issue that galvanised young voters.
Sarwar repeatedly called for a ceasefire and was said to be “unhappy” with some of Starmer’s comments on the conflict – but the anger aimed at Westminster on this issue was very real.
Independence is another factor. Support for ending the Union is highest among younger voters.
Many Scots who voted Yes in 2014 no longer support the SNP – but it’s of little benefit to Labour, with just three per cent saying they’ll vote for Sarwar in the constituencies.
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