Bitcoin vs. the Fed: What This Means for Michael Saylor’s Strategy Moves

The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates next week, the first hike since July 2023. Bitcoin’s largest corporate holder spent last week buying none of it.

Friday’s CPI report pushed Federal Reserve rate hike odds near 90%, and traders have now priced a second hike before year-end. Most crypto news today is about what that does to the bitcoin price. This video asks a different question: what a rate hike does to Michael Saylor.

Dana Love, PhD breaks down Strategy’s September 8 filing line by line. $176.3 million of STRC preferred stock repurchased, zero bitcoin bought, and a board that quietly doubled its buyback authorization from $1 billion to $2 billion on the same day Saylor’s own return-to-par deadline came and went. He also tests the macro claim directly, pulling every Federal Reserve decision from 2017 through April 2026, 76 meetings, against BTC price moves, and running 13 years of money supply data from the Fed. The correlation between the size of a Fed surprise and bitcoin’s move is 0.00. Then the part nobody is covering: the MSCI consultation that named Strategy first on its deletion list, and why its calendar matters more to MSTR than the FOMC does. Includes the strongest counterarguments from Lyn Alden’s liquidity research, Sam Callahan, and Strategy president Phong Le, answered on the merits. Ends with stated odds, named falsifiers, and dates.

Forensic analysis, primary sources, and a bitcoin price prediction framework built on receipts instead of vibes. Every claim in this video is sourced below.

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CHAPTERS
00:00 Bitcoin vs the Fed: Saylor’s Zero-Bitcoin Week
03:22 Fed Rate Hike Odds: What Changed This Week
06:14 Bitcoin and Interest Rates: I Tested 76 Fed Meetings
09:57 Michael Saylor’s Strategy: The Buyback Just Doubled
15:39 Strategy and MSCI: The Clock That Matters
19:55 MY TAKE

SOURCES
Strategy 8-K, September 8, 2026: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000119312526384402/mstr-20260831.htm
Strategy 8-K, August 31, 2026: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001050446/000119312526375463/mstr-20260831.htm
Strategy 8-K, August 24, 2026: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001050446/000119312526361845/mstr-20260824.htm
Strategy 8-K, August 3, 2026: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001050446/000119312526329565/mstr-20260803.htm
Strategy FWP, STRC return-to-par slide: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001050446/000119312526330767/d115265dfwp.htm
Strategy FWP, August 13 STRC briefing: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001050446/000119312526352145/d169243dfwp.htm
Strategy Q2 2026 earnings call: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JxBf7Ez14kA
Strategy response to MSCI: https://www.strategy.com/msci
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, Jackson Hole 2026 (Kansas City Fed): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0UIKsanJb84
August 2026 CPI report: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/11/cpi-inflation-report-august-2026.html
Fed hike odds after CPI: https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/article/fed-rate-hike-odds-surge-to-90-on-monthly-jump-in-core-prices-131206510.html
Oil above $100 and hike odds: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/10/the-likelihood-of-a-fed-interest-rate-hike-next-week-just-got-a-lot-higher.html
Strategy STRC buybacks and Strive SATA: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/09/01/strategy-spends-usd635m-buying-back-strc-as-perpetual-preferred-stock-lags-usd100-par
Buyback authorization doubled: https://www.benzinga.com/crypto/cryptocurrency/26/09/61660840/
MSCI consultation on non-operating companies: https://www.msci.com/index-consultations
Lyn Alden, Bitcoin as a global liquidity barometer: https://www.lynalden.com/bitcoin-a-global-liquidity-barometer/
FRED 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate (DGS2): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2
FRED M2 Money Stock (M2SL): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL
Coin Metrics community data, BTC daily reference rates: https://github.com/coinmetrics/data

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