Fed Warsh Speech Shakes Markets, Gold, Silver, Bitcoin, Yields…Here Comes The Earthquake!

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Everything today comes down to 10am. Kevin Warsh speaks from Jackson Hole, and Gareth Soloway explains what he is watching: not the words, but whether the Fed Watch odds move off 64.3% for no hike. Gold, silver, Bitcoin, and yields all move on that number — and he does not pretend to know the direction.

📐 TODAY’S GAME PLAN

🔵 THE 10AM SPEECH — Fed Watch shows a 64.3% chance of no hike in September against 35.7% for a hike. Gareth’s read: watch how that split shifts after Warsh talks. The second question is whether he criticizes the Treasury for intervening in the bond market.
🔵 SPY — Futures are firm ahead of the speech, the market gaming odds that Warsh is not too hawkish. Above the pivot at 7,570 Gareth stays neutral to bullish. Rally resistance is the trend line near 7,865. Lose 7,570 and it opens a trap door lower.
🔴 THE REAL CONCERN — Everything this week sits underneath the long end. The 30-Year is at 25-year highs, which is why the government has been buying long-dated bonds and issuing short ones — a manipulation Gareth says plainly he disagrees with.
🔴 DXY — Still a bear flag. The dollar could rally on the speech and still resolve lower, because the pattern is net bearish until it breaks. A weaker dollar helps manufacturing but imports inflation.
🔴 MRVL — The chart of the day. Marvell beat on earnings and revenue and dropped anyway, because NVIDIA reset the bar for a semiconductor beat. Gareth annotated this zone days ago: three major pivots stacked with the 0.618 fib, rejecting price twice before the gap down. Day trade $211–$215.75, with a deeper gap fill near the ascending trend line.
🟢 PYPL — Collapsing, and not on earnings. Stripe and Advent pulled out of the roughly $50 billion buyout, so the premium is coming out of the chart. A full retrace to $47.45 lands on a pivot and gap fill — the exact level where the buyout news broke. If it gets there, Gareth wants the long day trade.
🟢 GOLD / SILVER — Gold pulls back fractionally after hitting resistance days ago. Silver is the interesting one: it lagged gold’s vertical run, built a bull flag, and is pushing into resistance with room to $71.50, maybe $72. Both move at 10am.
🟢 US OIL / NATGAS — Oil is slightly lower on news the US may take a stake in Venezuela’s oil production. Gareth flags the timing: real news, or a release meant to hold prices down into the midterms? Natgas popped, hit minor resistance, and came back — bullish above $2.83.
🔴 BITCOIN — Hammering the same $80,000–$81,000 level again and coming right back in. Like everything else today, the resolution comes at 10am.

🔑 KEY TAKEAWAY: Know the risk before the reward. Gareth’s warning for day traders: a position working beautifully from 9:30 to 10:00 can flip on a dime the second Warsh speaks. His job is to know every risk that exists — because if you only focus on the reward, you get caught with your pants down.

⏱ TIMESTAMPS (estimated)
00:00 Everything Comes Down to 10am
02:00 Fed Watch: 64.3% Says No Hike
04:30 S&P: The 7,570 Pivot
06:30 Why the Long End Is the Real Story
08:30 The Dollar’s Bear Flag
10:00 Marvell Beat and Still Dropped
13:00 PayPal’s Buyout Falls Apart
15:30 Gap and Affirm on Earnings
18:00 Is It Silver’s Turn?
20:00 Venezuela Oil and the Midterms
21:30 Bitcoin Hammers $81,000

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📺 Weekly Wrap-Up airs LIVE today at 4:20 PM ET with full coverage of the Warsh speech.
💬 COMMENT: Do the Fed Watch odds move after 10am?

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