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“I Just Lost Everything” – WTF Happened To Bitcoin?!
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BITCOIN REALITY CHECK
After being the best-performing asset of 2024 and the last decade, Bitcoin is now down roughly 45% from its all-time high. Liquidations are wiping out leveraged investors, sentiment has flipped fast, and even the largest holders are sitting on paper losses.
THIS SELLOFF IS NOT RANDOM
The decline is being driven by a mix of macro and structural forces rather than retail panic. Investors are moving risk-off as valuations across markets remain stretched, interest rates stay higher for longer, and speculative assets lose appeal. Bitcoin, which benefited from optimism and liquidity, is now behaving like a leveraged risk asset rather than a defensive hedge.
A STRONGER DOLLAR IS A PROBLEM FOR BITCOIN
Bitcoin is often bought as protection against inflation and money printing. When the U.S. dollar strengthens, that narrative weakens. As the dollar gains purchasing power, demand for alternative stores of value drops, putting additional pressure on Bitcoin prices.
ETFs ARE ACCELERATING THE DOWNSIDE
Bitcoin ETFs amplify both rallies and crashes. When money flows in, ETFs buy Bitcoin and push prices higher. When investors exit, ETFs are forced to sell Bitcoin, pushing prices lower and triggering a feedback loop. This creates faster, more aggressive drawdowns than in prior cycles.
THE GOOD NEWS IS ALREADY PRICED IN
Much of the bullish narrative has already played out. ETF approvals, regulatory optimism, and expectations of easy money are no longer new catalysts. At the same time, regulatory uncertainty and political risk remain, limiting upside enthusiasm and reducing speculative demand.
CONFIDENCE IN BITCOIN’S ROLE IS FADING
Bitcoin has not reliably acted as a hedge during market stress. While gold surged, Bitcoin fell, leading many investors to question its role in a portfolio. Analysts increasingly describe the selloff as a loss of conviction rather than a one-off shock.
THE CORE RISKS ARE REAL
Critics like Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger argue Bitcoin produces no cash flow, has no intrinsic yield, and relies purely on someone else paying more. Others warn it could eventually become obsolete or heavily regulated. These criticisms explain why Bitcoin remains highly speculative, regardless of past performance.
BUT OPINIONS HAVE SHIFTED OVER TIME
Some former skeptics now acknowledge Bitcoin’s potential as a financial instrument, while prominent bulls still project massive long-term upside. The divide highlights the uncertainty. Bitcoin’s future depends on adoption, regulation, and relevance within a changing financial system.
HISTORY SHOWS EXTREME VOLATILITY IS NORMAL
Bitcoin has repeatedly fallen 50–90% before recovering. These cycles follow a familiar pattern: hype, parabolic growth, collapse, long periods of boredom, then renewed interest. Past recoveries do not guarantee future ones, but they explain why extreme drawdowns are not unusual.
MICHAEL SAYLOR AND QUANTUM FEARS ARE OVERSTATED
MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin holdings are funded largely through long-term convertible debt, not margin loans, making forced liquidation unlikely. Quantum computing remains a theoretical risk far in the future, and Bitcoin could adapt long before it becomes a real threat.
A RATIONAL APPROACH TO BITCOIN
The most disciplined strategy is small position sizing, long-term thinking, and emotional control. Overconfidence, greed, fear, and regret are the biggest threats to returns. Bitcoin can offer asymmetric upside, but only if losses are survivable and expectations are realistic.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Bitcoin is not dead, but it is not a safe haven or a shortcut to wealth. It is a volatile, speculative asset with no guarantees. Discipline matters more than conviction, position size matters more than predictions, and patience matters more than timing. If it succeeds, the upside can be meaningful. If it fails, the damage should be contained. That balance is how investors stay in the game long enough for any outcome to matter.
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News Videos
Ripple XRP: THE FED JUST RESET ALL THE BANKS | XRP & DTCC $100T FLOWS INCOMING! (INSANE CRYPTO NEWS)
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As always, results aren’t typical. So don’t be typical; stay bullish!
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News Videos
GameStop Not Beating My Video Game Offers #nintendo #nintendoswitch #videogames #resellers #money
News Videos
Pak Media Crying BCCI Declared 131 Crore Prize Money For Team India Win T20 WC Final, Bcci Vs Pcb
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“Our entire financial system will blow up without their factories, without their oil. And they know that. So they can wait.”
Luke Gromen is a macroeconomic analyst, investor and founder of FFTT.
In this episode, we get into whether the Iran war exposed a far bigger geopolitical shift than most people realise, why Luke thinks missiles and drones may have changed global power forever, and what all of this means for oil, markets, Bitcoin and the future of the dollar system.
We also get into why Bitcoin held up better than expected during the conflict, why Luke still thinks risk assets face serious danger ahead, and how AI could trigger a major credit event faster than almost anyone expects.
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TIMESTAMPS:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:01:06 – The Iran War
00:06:37 – Who’s Winning
00:12:23 – Is This Actually Over?
00:18:56 – What Drove Trump’s Decision To Pull Back
00:26:15 – What This Means For De-Dollarisation
00:32:28 – What Happens To Markets From Here
00:36:48 – Bitcoin Acting As Risk Off For The First Time
00:40:13 – Why Luke Sold His Bitcoin
00:44:43 – When Does Luke Buy Back
00:47:39 – AI Job Losses And The Private Credit Crisis
01:01:14 – How Long Until The Money Printer
What Bitcoin Did with Danny Knowles
#Bitcoin #Finance #Money #Economics
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The ASX bounced back today, in-line with markets around the world, as the oil price fell back sharply on reassurance from Donald Trump about the Middle East war.
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Well… that escalated quickly 🤯💰
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The two largest private prison companies in the United States are saying the quiet part out loud. @cohen.489 dug into their 10-K filings, which all publicly traded companies must file with the SEC. The documents reveal exactly how much money GEO Group and CoreCivic are raking in from ICE enforcement, how they’re planning to boost profits, and where their vulnerabilities are.
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News Videos
XRP – They Are Shutting It DOWN! (What Does This Mean?) | Trump Got Rejected! (“Get Out Now”)
XRP – They Are Shutting It DOWN! (What Does This Mean?) | Trump Got Rejected! (“Get Out Now”)
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Is this the end of the bull market or just the beginning of the real move? In this video, we break down why both the bulls and the bears might be looking at Bitcoin wrong right now.
Michael Saylor explains his 29% annual return thesis over the next 21 years and why Bitcoin’s volatility is actually the force pulling global capital into the ecosystem. Matt Cole, CEO of Strive Asset Management and former CalPERS executive, reveals why the fundamentals haven’t changed and how bare markets actually build the institutional track records that unlock pension fund capital. And Benjamin Cowen lays out the data-driven bear case using midterm year patterns from 2014, 2018, and 2022 that suggest more short-term pain could be ahead.
The real question isn’t whether Bitcoin goes higher long term. It’s whether you understand which timeframe you’re operating in.
Timestamps:
0:00 – Opening
1:04 – Michael Saylor on 29% ARR and long-term conviction
4:44 – Why volatility is Bitcoin’s magnetic field
10:09 – Matt Cole on why fundamentals haven’t changed
13:12 – Benjamin Cowen’s midterm year bear case
16:59 – Why both bulls and bears can be right
#Bitcoin #Crypto #ethereum
“The Biggest Bitcoin Trap I’ve Ever Seen” (Michael Saylor & Benjamin Cowen)
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Bitcoin: We’re Entering The Most Dangerous Phase
Ripple XRP: THE FED JUST RESET ALL THE BANKS | XRP & DTCC $100T FLOWS INCOMING! (INSANE CRYPTO NEWS)
GameStop Not Beating My Video Game Offers #nintendo #nintendoswitch #videogames #resellers #money
Pak Media Crying BCCI Declared 131 Crore Prize Money For Team India Win T20 WC Final, Bcci Vs Pcb
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