Jobs Report Shocker, Market Surge, S&P Nears Next Major Resistance, Bitcoin Breakout, Gold Surge

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The jobs report was a shocker: the economy lost 23,000 jobs against roughly 83,000 expected, a miss of about 100,000. Unemployment actually fell — but only because people are leaving the workforce, with participation down 0.7% since January and prior months revised sharply lower. Wage growth is the slowest in years. Markets are surging anyway, because September hike odds just fell below 50% and this market is addicted to cheap money. On today’s Trading Game Plan, Gareth Soloway maps the S&P’s next resistance, the dollar breakdown nobody is discussing, and the Bitcoin breakout he called.

📐 TODAY’S GAME PLAN

🟢 SPY — Riding the breakout toward trend-line resistance near 7,833, about 120 points or 1.5% away. Gareth turns more neutral there; clear it and 8,000 to 8,100 is the next leg.
🔴 DXY — Collapsed on the data and is piercing a major trend line. The kicker: the US sold euros to buy yen in the coordinated intervention, so dumping dollars adds fuel to the decline. Bullish for gold, silver, and Bitcoin.
🔵 10-YR YIELD — Dropped to 4.6%, reversing the prior day’s move. FedWatch now shows 56% odds of no hike at the September 16 meeting.
🟢 BITCOIN — Breaking out of its down-sloping wedge exactly like gold did, now above $65K. First resistance near $67K, then $71K and potentially $77K. A big near-term bull, though he still does not think the bear-market bottom is in.
🟢 GOLD — Another blast off after the breakout candle and pause day, hitting first resistance near $4,375 off a pivot low and base plate. The first real test of the bull move.
🔵 SILVER — Through the first trend line and into the second. It needs a confirmed daily close above $64 to turn Gareth bullish; until then he is neutral to expecting a pullback.
🟢 TEAM — Atlassian rips about 30% after being written off as an AI casualty, from a $57 low yesterday to nearly $150. Day-trade short zone only, up at $167–$176. Structure looks like a cup and handle.
🟢 ABNB — Airbnb pops as the AI-kills-booking thesis fails to materialize. Day-trade short at the $170 pivot high, about $9 above price.
🔴 TTD — Missed earnings and revenue, lowered guidance, down about 30% to 2018 levels from $141 in late 2024. Gareth held a small position into the print and is dollar-cost averaging. Day trade near $12. Still profitable with $1.5B cash on a $6B cap, but management fumbled this badly.
🟢 TWLO — Big pop with room to run. Gareth would swing short near $275–$276 at the inside pivot.
🔴 MSFT — On his radar as a swing short at the $507–$512 gap fill, lining up with the 0.786 fib retrace from the all-time high.
🔵 US OIL / NATGAS — Oil pulls back, which helps the market. Natural gas catches a solid bid, up about 1.75%, without quite reaching his level.

🔑 KEY TAKEAWAY: Bad news is good news when rates are the driver. Weak jobs data would normally sink stocks, but lower hike odds mean cheaper money — and until that breaks, the market rejoices at weakness.

⏱ TIMESTAMPS (estimated)
00:00 Jobs Report Shocker: Minus 23,000
04:00 Why Unemployment Fell Anyway
08:00 FedWatch Swings to No Hike
11:00 S&P: The 7,833 Target
15:00 Dollar Pierces a Major Trend Line
19:00 Bitcoin Breaks Out Like Gold

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💬 COMMENT below: Does the S&P tag 7,833, or stall out first?

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