Raoul Pal: “This Bitcoin Crash Is WORSE Than Anyone Realizes And It’s Only The Beginning”

Raoul Pal just revealed WHY the four-year Bitcoin cycle BROKE — and what’s really happening behind the scenes.

He said: “The foundational work that I did, called the Everything Code, was based on this four-year cycle. And I redid the work and found out that in 2022, they restructured the debt to FIVE YEARS.”

💰 KEY NUMBERS FROM THIS VIDEO:
– FIVE YEARS — The new debt maturity cycle (was four years)
– $250 BILLION — Stimulus held back by government shutdown
– $9.2 TRILLION — US debt that matured by end of 2025
– $9 TRILLION — US debt maturing in 2026
– $578 BILLION — Treasury borrowing expected Q1 2026
– 25% — Percentage of entire US debt that matured in one year
– $100 TRILLION — Raoul’s target crypto market cap by early 2030s
– $3.5 TRILLION — Current crypto market cap (3.5% of target)
– 43 DAYS — Longest government shutdown (Oct 1 – Nov 12, 2025)
– $126,000 — Bitcoin all-time high (October 2025)
– 52% — Bitcoin crash from ATH to around $60K
– $17 BILLION — Ethereum’s tokenized RWA market cap
– 315% — Year-over-year growth in Ethereum tokenization
– $2.5 BILLION — BlackRock’s BUIDL fund on Ethereum
– $9 BILLION — Tokenized money market funds total
– $175 BILLION — Stablecoins on Ethereum market cap
– $9.43 TRILLION — Projected RWA tokenization market by 2030
– $5 BILLION+ — Hyperliquid’s open interest
– $200 BILLION — Hyperliquid’s monthly trading volume
– 140 BTC vs 80 BTC — Hyperliquid vs Binance ask size
– $1 vs $5.50 — Hyperliquid vs Binance BTC perpetual spreads
– $4,800 — Ethereum 2025 peak (below $4,878 2021 ATH)
– $260 — Solana 2025 peak (below $294 2021 ATH)
– 50 — ISM Manufacturing Index expansion/contraction line
– 56-65 — ISM normal cycle peak range
– 5-6 — Number of things that go up A LOT in latter cycle

🎯 RAOUL PAL QUOTES:
– “The foundational work that I did, called the Everything Code, was based on this four-year cycle”
– “I redid the work and found out that in 2022, they restructured the debt to FIVE YEARS”
– “So it’s added ANOTHER YEAR”
– “We’ve got this weird kind of hybrid EXTRA YEAR that we’ve never had before”
– “People talk about this K-SHAPED ECONOMY”
– “Growth stocks have been going up, but meanwhile, things like the economy have been relatively slow for NORMAL PEOPLE”
– “That’s a function of this business cycle not picking up”
– “They didn’t need to REFINANCE the debts in massive size this year”
– “But it ALL COMES to NEXT YEAR”
– “Last year did, you know, peaked in somewhere early in the year, and then did NOTHING all year”
– “Everyone got so FRUSTRATED”
– “Everyone was flinging poo at each other online and getting ANGRY with each other”
– “And then before you know, it took off like a ROCKET SHIP in November and December”
– “I think it’s SOMEWHAT SIMILAR this time around”
– “The government shutdown has stopped the government actually spending money”
– “They’ve HELD BACK”
– “Maybe $250 BILLION dollars of stimulus that needs to come into the economy”
– “As soon as the government reopens in the NEXT FEW DAYS, will start to see liquidity FLOWING BACK IN”
– “Then we’ve got the Federal Reserve cutting rates”
– “Then we’ve got the Clarity Act coming”
– “Then we’ve got some changes to bank regulations to allow them to hold more reserves”
– “And before you know it, the whole LIQUIDITY FLYWHEEL kicks off”
– “The issue is if the LIQUIDITY PIE didn’t grow”
– “These narratives — they catch traction, but it means OTHER THINGS DON’T because you’re recycling the same money”
– “You keep recycling the money, and then before you know, you’re BUYING THE HIGHS and it COLLAPSES back down”
– “Then you can ANCHOR these narratives that are more pervasive and can LAST LONGER”
– “We’ve had the rise of Hyperliquid”
– “It’s NOT YET clear to me where the next new narrative comes from”
– “Maybe it just comes from the broad STABLECOIN ADOPTION from the financial system”
– “I think that’s a BIG ONE”
– “Usually in the LATTER part of a cycle, what you get is like a HYPER-FOCUS of five, six things that go up A LOT”
– “We’ve seen PRETTY MUCH every bank and financial institution say they’re going to build on BLOCKCHAIN RAILS”
– “So we’ve seen this whole kind of WALL STREET INFRASTRUCTURE built out on crypto”
– “You would have thought had we have said this before, you’d say the NUMBER WAS MUCH HIGHER”
– “Bitcoin hit new highs over the course of the year”
– “Solana and Ethereum STILL HAVEN’T really broken to new highs versus the LAST CYCLE”
– “Which is CONFUSING people”

⚠️ DISCLAIMER:
This video is for educational and entertainment purposes only. This is NOT financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile and risky.

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