Andy Burnham Likely To Win Makerfield Seat

First, we’ll start of with good news for Andy Burnham. It looks as though he is all-but certain to win the Makerfield by-election.

With less than a fortnight to go until polling day on June 18, opinion polls – and the increasingly-confident Labour campaign team – suggest he holds a comfortable lead over Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon.

The most recent survey of voter opinion in the constituency puts Burnham on 49%, fully 10 points ahead of Kenyon on 39%.

Barring an unforeseen crisis, and in politics that can never be ruled out entirely, the Greater Manchester mayor will soon return to Westminster after a nine-year hiatus.

We now know, as Burnham himself confirmed on Question Time on Thursday night, that he will then move quickly to replace Keir Starmer and become Britain’s next prime minister.

It would be the culmination of a lifetime’s ambition for the former cabinet minister, who has twice tried and failed to become Labour leader before.

Burnham, the so-called “King of the North”, has vowed to change both the Labour Party and the way politics is done at Westminster, with a greater emphasis on public control of essential services and an end to 40 years of Thatcherite neoliberal economic theory.

With just three years to go until the next general election – he has already ruled out going to the country early – he is clearly a man in a hurry.

But his eagerness to depose Starmer and seize the crown has not gone down well with many of the Labour MPs he will rely on to get his agenda through the Commons – and is storing up trouble for the future.

“He’s an arsehole,” one backbencher told HuffPost UK. “All Andy cares about is himself. Loyal, hardworking MPs don’t want to support a coup and will now not go campaigning for him in the by-election.”

Another MP said: “Those who had already decided not to go and campaign for him now have the perfect excuse.”

Burnham’s admission that he plans to challenge Starmer has “gone down like a lead balloon” in the Labour ranks, an MP said.

“I don’t understand why he’s in such a rush,” the MP said. “It would have been plausible for him to come back and be offered a role by Keir, but he’s obviously decided he doesn’t want to do that and instead wants to move against the PM as soon as he gets back.

“It’s typical of Andy to act without thinking it through. People are furious with him.”

A minister said: “Plausible deniability that he was after the leadership was at least making it feel like what he is doing was within the rules.

“Now every door we knock in Makerfield is contributing to the instability of the government.”

But a Burnham ally told HuffPost UK: “Its hardly news that Andy would want to enter a leadership contest should one arise.

“I don’t think many colleagues believed he’d be sitting on the backbenches if he wins this by election, so refusing to support this existential fight against Reform is pretty disingenuous.”

Burnham has insisted he is sticking by his pledge to end parliament’s whipping system, whereby party managers tell MPs which way to vote and discipline those who rebel.

Instead, he has said he will rely on the “collective wisdom” of Labour MPs, effectively allowing them to vote with their consciences rather than necessarily take the government line.

If he doesn’t want his agenda to be upended, therefore, he needs to get his own backbenchers onside from the start.

But one said: “If you are simultaneously saying you’ll ease off whipping and also angering your colleagues, that does not bode well for the future of a putative Burnham administration.”

Another backbencher said they expected any boost Labour receives from a new PM to be short-lived.

“We’ll get the briefest of bounces before people realise that Donald Trump, Elon Musk, Iran and Vladimir Putin have not changed,” he said.

No.10 were quick to respond to Burnham’s Question Time announcement, insisting the PM will not “walk away” from the job he was elected to do in July, 2024.

“The country expects us to focus on governing and to deliver change for hardworking people, not get distracted by Westminster debates,” a Downing Street spokesperson said.

“The Labour Party has a process for challenging a leader and it has not been triggered.”

Former health secretary Wes Streeting, who quit the cabinet in the wake of Labour’s disastrous performance in the May 7 elections, has already said he will stand in any leadership contest.

Burnham appeared to use that as cover for his own leadership ambitions, telling the Question Time audience: “I think Wes Streeting seems to have launched a leadership contest, so if that is running, I would seek to join it.

“But I’d have to persuade members of the Parliamentary Labour Party to do the same. So that’s the only question.”

But an MP accused Burnham of “insulting our intelligence”.

“Wes doesn’t have the numbers and Andy has been planning this since the general election,” the MP said.

“We can all see as plain as day what’s happened and trying to imply it’s a response to what Wes has said is disgraceful.”

Another minister, however, said Labour MPs should park any reservations they have about Burnham and do everything they can to get him elected.

“The alternative is Reform winning the seat, and if that happens, we are totally fucked,” he said.

“Andy’s got a strong personal vote and a strong campaign message, that places like Makerfield have been forgotten about and he’s the man to change that.

“We need to get behind him, and whatever happens after that will take care of itself.”

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