Andy Burnham wields the knife, and wins the crown

Andy Burnham’s sensational victory in the Makerfield by-election rendered untenable the continuation of Keir Starmer’s premiership. The prime minister, to his credit, left his Downing Street bunker on Monday morning and bowed to the inevitable. 

Starmer’s strained insistence that he would, in the words of another outgoing prime minister, “fight on” and “fight to win” melted on contact with political reality. The power of Burnham’s victory sent an uncomplicated signal to the parliamentary Labour Party. The man previously confined to the Greater Manchester mayoralty would thwart Reform and save Labour seats. 

There was no misinterpreting the message made in Makerfield. It demanded a response.

Starmer’s statement today will spare Labour from the brutal spectacle of a parliamentary stampede. But in the words of a third outgoing prime minister, the herd had already moved.

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After all, the protection Labour’s leadership strictures afforded Starmer was no match for the raw political meaning of the Makerfield result. 

To attribute Starmer’s fall solely to a single by-election would, of course, misunderstand the longer arc of his premiership. The winter fuel payment cut; the ructions caused by the government’s stance on the two-child benefit cap; the botched handling of the welfare bill rebellion; the inevitable but always belated U-turns; the appointment of Peter Mandelson as Britain’s ambassador to the United States; the unpopularity; the rise of populisms on the left and right – every development, every debacle diminished Starmer in the eyes of Labour MPs. 

In his statement this morning, Starmer exercised his right to rehearse a different story. He referred to the “morally” bankrupt state of the Labour Party in 2020 and the immense odds he faced as leader of the opposition in the wake of Corbynism.

In defiant tones, Starmer declared that he had proved “those people wrong. Because we changed our party, ripping out the poison of antisemitism, restoring trust on the economy, defence and national security and becoming a party that once again stood proudly with, not against, our national flag.”

The 2024 general election did indeed deliver that rare thing: a Labour government. But the defining story of Starmer’s premiership was its inability to realise the potential that this historic political achievement promised.

Starmer’s resignation sets in train the process that will now deliver Britain’s seventh prime minister in 10 years. He told the nation that nominations would open for the election of his successor on 9 July. If a leadership election is triggered, Starmer’s successor will be in place by the time parliament returns from its summer recess in September. 

The parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) will now enstool, by contest or coronation, Andy Burnham as Starmer’s successor. The immediate intrigue lies in whether any credible challenger will emerge. Starmer’s remaining allies may yet attempt to rally around a candidate, but Wes Streeting’s decision to endorse Burnham all but clears his path to Downing Street.

There has been some meditation on the meaning of Makerfield in recent days. But the developments since Burnham’s victory was declared in the early hours of Friday morning surely confirm it as the most consequential by-election in British history. 

By-elections and poor electoral performance generally are part of the formula that leads to a prime ministerial resignation. The circumstances of Burnham’s accession, however, are entirely unprecedented. He stood for parliament with the aim of defenestrating the prime minister, and succeeded.  

For this reason, it is indefensibly banal to suggest that Starmer is leaving Downing Street “on his own terms”. The extent to which Starmer’s exit was coordinated with or communicated to camp Burnham will be revealed over the coming days and weeks. But Starmer has fallen victim to a political coup – engineered by Burnham and endorsed by the electorate of Makerfield. 

In the end, there was some grace but little dignity to be found in the circumstances surrounding Starmer’s departure.

Perhaps the real power of the Makerfield by-election is that it allowed Labour to oust Starmer on its own terms. The Makerfield outcome obscures Nigel Farage’s claim that Starmer is his third prime ministerial scalp (after David Cameron and Theresa May). Reform candidates stood at the local elections in May on a platform of “get Starmer out”. On the face of it, regicidal action by Labour MPs risked lending credence to Reform and Farage. But in Makerfield, Burnham stole Farage’s thunder to ensure a succession could be conducted almost entirely according to his design.

The reasons for Starmer’s resignation are manifold. They can be found in the missteps and muddied messaging that characterised his premiership. But the immediate cause of his resignation is simple: Andy Burnham and Makerfield. 

It was Burnham, then, who definitively disproved Michael Heseltine’s maxim that those who wield the knife cannot inherit the crown. 

Josh Self is editor of Politics.co.uk, follow him on Bluesky here and X here.

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