Anti-Reform Voters Could Block Farage From No.10, Poll Shows

Nigel Farage could be blocked from ever becoming prime minister by the 43% of Brits “unhappy” with the idea of a Reform government, a survey has found.

The right-wing party is virtually neck-and-neck with Labour in the opinion polls, raising the prospect of Farage becoming prime minister at the next election.

But a report by anti-racism campaign group HOPE Not Hate has shown how tactical voting by nearly half the country could stop it from happening.

Based on polling by Focaldata, the report shows that there are more anti-Reform voters than supporters of the right-wing party.

Of the 43% who would be unhappy at Farage becoming PM, 69% would be prepared to vote tactically for whichever party is best-placed to stop a Reform candidate being elected in their constituency.

A constituency-level MRP projection by Survation found there are 95 “fragile Reform” seats across the country, where the party is three percentage points or less ahead of their nearest rival.

It also found there are 199 “anti-Reform jeopardy” seats where the party is currently projected to win only because opposition votes are split between two or more other parties.

Nick Lowles, chief executive at HOPE Not Hate, said: “Whether it’s the Burnham bounce or the Farage flop taking effect, Reform UK is doing worse in the polls now than they were last year.

“At the same time, millions of voters across Britain are ready to vote tactically against Reform.

“Even Reform enthusiasts like Tim Montgomerie are warning that Reform is only strong when its opposition is divided.

“Our research shows that Montgomerie is right to worry: Reform’s opposition can close ranks around election time.

“Our job is to guide anti-Reform voters to back a party that will deliver Reform defeat.”

Prominent Farage ally Tim Montgomerie was suspended from Reform last week after publicly criticising the party and its home affairs spokesperson Zia Yusuf.

A parliamentary sleaze probe is currently looking into Farage over a £5 million donation from a crypto-billionaire he failed to declare to parliament when he became an MP in 2024.

The Reform leader triggered a by-election in his constituency of Clacton earlier this year amid the heightened scrutiny over his finances.

However, all the other major parties refused to stand a candidate, describing the contest as a “stunt”, and Farage was re-elected.

Listen to Commons People, the podcast that makes politics easy. Every week, Kevin Schofield and Kate Nicholson unpack the week’s biggest stories to keep you informed. Join us for straightforward analysis of what’s going on at Westminster.