BBC Expert: Trump Stuck In ‘Destructive Cycle’ Over Iran War

Donald Trump is stuck in a “destructive cycle” over the Iran war, according to the BBC’s international editor.

The US president declared on Monday that Tehran was on its “last chance” when it comes to negotiations on opening the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran has effectively closed the major oil shipping lane since the US and Israel launched strikes against Tehran back in February.

The global economic impact has left the US scrambling to make a deal to get the waterway up and running again – though Trump insists he still has the upper hand in talks.

As the BBC’s Jeremy Bowen warned on Radio 4’s Today programme, it is Iran who has the “momentum” in these discussions right now.

He pointed out it was the Iranians and the Omanis who are in conversation over a deal to reopen the Strait this week, not the Americans.

Iran would control who goes into the Gulf via a shipping channel near its coast, while Oman would supervise vessels’ exit.

Bowen explained: “Iran has got this weapon of control of the Strait of Hormuz, and they’re not going to give it up. The Strait was open before the war started.

“Second of all, Trump has got no good options right now. Not at all.

“Yes the Americans can still bomb, though they have been weakened by their shortage of interceptors and that’s a factor for their generals.

“They can do a lot of physical damage to Iran, but that doesn’t appear thus far to force the regime to capitulate.

“Doing a deal – which is going to look weak – is something [Trump] is going to hate and he’ll be criticised for.

“Then he’ll think, ‘I’ve got to look strong so I’m going to bomb’. It’s a very destructive cycle.”

Bowen added that if there is a fee structure in the new deal, the Gulf countries “will not like it one little bit” because it was a free waterway prior to the US and Israeli strikes on Iran back in February.

He said: “It’s not at all clear Trump will be happy with this sort of a deal.”

The president laid out his war goals at the start on the conflict five months ago.

He said he wanted regime change, to end the Iran nuclear programme, restrict Iran’s relationship with its proxies and control what it does with its ballistic missiles.

But Bowen noted: “None of this is being talked about right now. It’s just about trying to get the waterway open.”

He said the current situation is one the neighbouring Gulf countries “have been dreading” because they have been left with a “massive mess caused by this rash and reckless decision by Donald Trump to go to war in the hope he could get a quick Venezuela-style victory.”

He added: “If any party to this has control of the momentum of discussion of events, it’s much more the Iranians than the US.”

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