Brexit ten years on: public opinion

Ahead of the ten year anniversary of the EU referendum on 23 June, UK in a Changing Europe experts have written a short series of blogs reflecting on some of the issues at the heart of Brexit then and now. Here, John Curtice examines how public opinion has changed over the past decade. 

In 1975, the UK voted by two to one to stay in the European Union. Yet despite that seemingly decisive outcome, the debate about Britain’s membership did not stop. By 1983, Labour was campaigning in favour of withdrawal, and for a while most voters appeared to agree with them. Then, during the 1990s the Conservative party – and many voters – became increasingly sceptical about the EU. Eventually, forty-one years after the original ballot, Britain voted narrowly – by 52% to 48% – to Leave the EU. Harold Wilson’s referendum did not withstand the test of time.

Ten years on, it is beginning to look as though the 2016 ballot will be no more successful that the previous exercise in drawing the debate about Britain’s relationship to a close. On average this year, polls that have asked people how they would vote in another referendum have, once those saying don’t know are excluded, put support for being in the EU at a record high of 60%. Just 40% indicate that they would vote to stay out. Since Liz Truss’ ‘fiscal event’ in September 2022 rocked the markets – an experience whose impact on attitudes towards Brexit has been too little appreciated – only one published poll has recorded a majority vote for staying out of the EU. Meanwhile, in response to a separate question, 56% now tell YouGov they are in favour of rejoining the EU, while just 35% are opposed.

In part, the marked change in the balance of opinion has been occasioned by switching among those who voted to Leave in 2016. On average in polls conducted this May, only 72% of Leavers said they would vote to stay out of the EU, whereas 81% of those who voted Remain indicated they would vote to rejoin. However, just as important are the views expressed by those who did not vote in 2016. They back rejoining over staying out by a margin of nearly three (51%) to one (17%).

Many of these non-voters were too young to vote in 2016. Those same polls conducted in May also indicate that two-thirds (67%) of those aged 18-24 would vote to rejoin the EU, while just one in eight (13%) would support staying out. In contrast, just 35% of those aged 65 and over would vote to rejoin, whereas as many as 53% would back staying out. The clear implication is that generational turnover could gradually serve to reduce the level of support for being outside the EU even further.

In the meantime, many voters appear to have come to the conclusion that Brexit has not worked out well. In polling conducted this April, Ipsos found that over half (51%) believe that it has been ‘more of a failure’ while only one in eight (13%) reckon it has been ‘more of a success’. More specifically, YouGov polling in January 2025 reported that, on two of the key issues in the referendum campaign, the economy (65%) and immigration (52%) Brexit is now believed to have had a negative impact. In the case of immigration, that perception is just as common among those who voted Leave in 2016 as it is among those who voted Remain, while even in the case of the economy over two in five (43%) Leave voters believe it has been negatively impacted.

Of course, that still leaves the question of who voters blame for Brexit’s perceived failure. More in Common found this April that as many as 46% are of the view that ‘Brexit could have worked well but politicians have handled it badly’, a response that is particularly common (74%) among those who voted Reform in 2024. This probably helps explain why around half of those who voted Leave in 2016 are now supporting the pro-Brexit party and why most Leave voters (71%) are still inclined to vote to stay out of the EU.

However, whereas those Leave voters who are disappointed with what has happened to immigration in the wake of Brexit may be inclined to blame politicians for the perceived failure, the same is not necessarily true of those Leave supporters who are unhappy about the economic impact of Brexit. Certainly, research conducted via the NatCen Opinion panel finds that while there is little link between perceptions of the perceived impact of Brexit on immigration and Leave voters’ willingness to vote to stay out, only two in five (40%) Leave voters who feel the economy is worse off as a result of Brexit now say they would vote to stay out, a finding replicated by the British Social Attitudes survey. Meanwhile, just over half (51%) of those who did not vote in 2016 told YouGov that Brexit has had a negative impact on the economy with only 14% stating it had had a positive impact. That outlook helps explain why there is little support for Brexit among this (gradually growing) section of the electorate.

Of course, even if Brexit is no longer a popular cause, that does not necessarily mean voters are keen to see the issue revisited in another referendum. Indeed, it is commonly asserted that this is the case. Yet this is not what the polling shows. In April, More in Common found that just over half (51%) of all voters supported having another referendum on Brexit in the next five years, while only a third (33%) were opposed. Meanwhile in polling conducted for UK in a Changing Europe in May, just under half (48%) said they supported having a referendum in the next five years, while only slightly over a quarter (27%) were opposed. In practice, as we might anticipate, those who voted Remain are keen on having another referendum (by 73% to 12% according to Ipsos) while those who did not vote in 2016 are also minded to do so (by 43% to 16%). In contrast, there is considerable resistance among 2016 Leave voters, though their opposition (by 55% to 25%) is not as marked as the enthusiasm of Remain supporters.

Perhaps another referendum will not happen in the next five years. However, unless public attitudes towards EU membership shift once again, it is difficult to believe the 2016 referendum will prove to be the final word.

By John Curtice, Professor of Politics, Strathclyde University, and Senior Fellow, national Centre for Social Research and UK in a Changing Europe.