Britons give qualified support to more spending on defence

Richard Rose argues that there is public support in the UK for an increase in defence spending based on his survey data. 

Keir Starmer has acknowledged that Britain’s defence needs upgrading in response to the threat to national security posed by Russia. But doing so at a time of fiscal stringency would be costly in votes as well as money if increased spending on defence lacks the support of public opinion.

Evidence from a new survey by Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now shows qualified public support for more spending to defend national security. A total of 45% see the country’s national security under threat of a military attack. Furthermore, 32% think it likely we will be in a war in five years’ time. This shows a greater sense of urgency than the Labour government’s notional commitment to upgrade military spending substantially by 2035.

Military action is not the only security threat that people see. Global economic problems are seen as a security threat by 82% of Britons and climate change as a threat by 67%. Cabinet ministers representing these concerns far outnumber the Secretary of State for Defence in the fight between government departments for the limited funds available for increased spending.

The public understands the logic underlying Keir Starmer’s attempt to increase defence co-operation with European countries to allay the risk that President Donald Trump has cast on America’s commitment to NATO. Three-fifths of Britons do not think the UK can rely on the United States for military protection today.

A shortage of money is the Labour government’s reason for going slow in upgrading a military force that generals and defence experts view as inadequate to the challenge to security facing Britain today. Keir Starmer has made clear that the National Health Service, which has much more electoral appeal than defence, has first call on increased expenditure. The public agrees. Only 29% think more should be spent on defence if the money would come from making cuts in social expenditure.

Nonetheless, there is popular endorsement for raising taxes to fund more military spending. This position is supported by 39% of all respondents compared to 24% opposed. The median group of 25% neither agrees nor disagrees.

Taxing more to provide better military protection in a visibly insecure world is a positive argument that Starmer could use to justify a tax increase. It is an argument that does not threaten the loss of votes. Labour voters are more likely than the median Briton to endorse paying more taxes to spend more on defence. Most with no fixed opinion are likely to go along with increasing defence spending if Downing Street were to give a strong lead.

Giving a strong lead is not something Sir Keir Starmer is good at, and his mooted successors have shown no interest in defence. Doing nothing about defence thus remains the default political option. While defence is not a vote-winning issue, doing nothing could have an indirect negative effect on Labour. Defence spending on military equipment is one way in which the British government can stimulate economic growth and selling military equipment to EU member states is a way of increasing exports.

By Richard Rose, Professor, University of Strathclyde.

Find Out Now, in conjunction with Electoral Calculus, polled 2,056 respondents on 19-20 October. Richard Rose of the University of Strathclyde Glasgow collaborated in the questionnaire design. Full statistical results at https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_defencepoll_20251026.html