David Gauke: Welcome to the new world of multi party politics – whose entrance was via Gorton

David Gauke is a former Justice Secretary and was an independent candidate in South-West Hertfordshire at the 2019 general election.

Most by-elections do not really matter but Gorton and Denton feels like a by-election of significance – even if the news quickly moved on.

Yes, there are some familiar attributes to the result – Governments do badly; a small party often does well; and, in seats with a large Muslim vote, the most vehemently anti-Israel candidate often wins.  At least we were spared George Galloway returning to Parliament.

We know that the Labour government – and Keir Starmer – are unpopular, and that was reflected in their dismal vote.  We know that Muslim communities often vote as a block, a tendency that was once very helpful to Labour and now is not.

We also know that tactical voting means that if you are party that does not have a chance of winning, your vote will be squeezed very tightly.  Neither the Conservatives nor the Liberal Democrats reached 2 per cent, which is tighter than ever but – where there are three plausible options for a victorious candidate rather than the usual two – not altogether surprising.

Not much will be said about the Liberal Democrats in the context of Gorton and Denton because their low showing was expected, but it is a reminder of the changed political geography compared to a generation ago.

There are some similarities with the Brent East by-election of 2003.  Here was an urban, multicultural seat where the Liberal Democrats had little historic presence (I was the Conservative candidate in 2001 and there was next to no Lib Dem activity in the seat in that election) but stormed to victory two years’ later at a time when the Tories were at a very low ebb, and the Government was unpopular with Muslims and younger progressives because of the Iraq war.  At that point, the Liberal Democrats were emerging as a real threat to Labour in urban seats and went on to win Manchester Withington (part of which is now in Gorton and Denton) in 2005.  The Greens are now the party of protest for urban progressive graduates and Muslims.

This sets the Greens up for a very good set of results in the London local authority elections in May and a realistic challenger in a swathe of urban Labour Parliamentary seats at the next General Election.  However awkward this might be for Labour, this is not something Conservatives should celebrate.  The Greens’ influence on our politics – whether directly as a Parliamentary force or indirectly by dragging Labour in its direction – will be detrimental to our economic wellbeing, national security, and, on the evidence of their by-election campaign, community cohesion.  If there is any consolation in their victory, it will come in the form of greater scrutiny of a party whose policy agenda could, at best, be described as flaky.

The Tories might also be tempted to take some pleasure from the failure of Reform UK to win Gorton and Denton.  That is certainly grounds for relief but no more than that.  Reform UK must have done well in the white working class areas of Denton and look well-placed to capture the Red Wall but should be kicking themselves for not having done better.  Matt Goodwin was an unlikeable candidate who attracted some unsavoury supporters; Nigel Farage spent the weekend before the by-election on a jaunt trying to reach the Chagos Islands which was hardly a priority issue in Manchester.

It was all rather self-indulgent.

A more substantial worry for Reform UK is that it is very effective in motivating people to turn out and vote for whoever is best placed to defeat them.  There have now been three by-elections where Reform UK was well-fancied where the result was something of a disappointment. In Runcorn & Helsby, they won but by a whisker as Conservative voters in Helsby voted tactically for Labour. In the Senedd seat of Caerphilly, Plaid Cymru beat them comfortably. Now the Greens have done so in Gorton and Denton.  The combination of tactical voting and a high turnout from anti-Farage voters is frustrating their progress.

This is the one crumb of comfort for Labour.  It was a terrible result but they can argue that Gorton and Denton is an unusual constituency and that at the next election there will be many seats where it will be a straightforward fight between the Labour incumbent and the Reform challenger.  Mid-term by-elections are inevitably a referendum on the Government, rather than a choice between alternative options.  In that context, Reform UK should not be viewed as unbeatable.

This, however, is very much looking on the bright side for Labour.  They are losing votes in all directions and it is currently hard to see which part of the electorate they can completely rely upon.  The decision to block Andy Burnham is once again being questioned.  He would have won last week, but a by-election for the Greater Manchester Mayoralty would have been difficult.  In any event, Starmer would not have lasted long as leader with Burnham in his Parliamentary party.  As it is, the Prime Minister has to hope that falling immigration and an improving economy (assuming both happen) ease his political woes but he will be lucky to survive the aftermath of the May elections.

For the Conservatives, the Gorton and Denton by-election was something of a non-event, notwithstanding the record low share of the vote.  The rise of the Greens, as I argued above, is no cause of celebration but it does offer opportunities in that the left’s vote is split and there is scope  to define the Tories against them as the pro-enterprise party.  A breakthrough for Reform would have been difficult, and a Labour government that drifts leftwards – assuming that is what it does – leaves behind plenty of space to be exploited.  There is nothing in these results to support the narrative that the Tories are bouncing back, but there is reason enough to believe that the potential is there.

There is a final point to be made.

This was a by-election that demonstrated that political support is fragmenting.  Neither of the two big traditional parties finished in the top two; not unprecedented but very rare.  The Greens got over 40 per cent of the vote, which is not particularly low for a winning candidate, but we are in a world where MPs will win with a vote share of just a third or even lower.  Majorities become lower at the same time that voters become more volatile, resulting in greater MP churn and a focus on short term thinking.  Candidates focus more on winning the tactical voting battle than articulating their policies, leaving the electorate to guess how the rest of the constituency is going to cast their vote before deciding who is best placed to defeat the candidate they least want.  At the very least, this raises questions about the viability of the First Past The Post electoral system if this fragmentation is to be maintained.

This takes us back to the significance of this by-election.

It raises questions about our electoral system; it sees a breakthrough for the Greens and (one would hope) more scrutiny for them; it further destabilises the Prime Minister and will provoke a debate about Labour’s future that will likely see them moving leftwards; it highlights that Reform UK is a powerful electoral force, but also exposes its self-indulgence; is a reminder that by-elections in seats like this were once a Liberal Democrat speciality but not anymore.  As for the Conservatives, this is not where the recovery was ever going to begin.

The question for the Tories is where exactly that place will be.