Former Starmer Aide Predicts Burnhams Labour Leadership

Andy Burnham is likely to become Labour leader and prime minister without a contest if he wins next week’s Makerfield by-election, a former aide to Keir Starmer has said.

James Lyons told the HuffPost UK podcast Commons People that “we will see a significant number of MPs nominating Andy in a way that makes it very difficult for the prime minister to fight on”.

In those circumstances, Lyons said Starmer could agree to “some sort of stable and orderly transition” to Burnham.

The prime minister has told ministers that he will stand in a Labour leadership contest if one is triggered.

But Lyons, who was No.10 director of communications between 2024 and 2025, said that once his former boss is confronted with the reality of the situation he faces, he will be forced to think again.

He said: “The prime minister can survive, the question is ‘will he’, and I think if Andy Burnham is elected next Thursday, I don’t think he will.

“I think there’s every chance that what we will see is a coronation and we will see a significant number of MPs nominating Andy in a way that makes it very difficult for the prime minister to fight on.

“I know in his heart he will want to [fight on], he definitely feels he is the best person to be leading the country during this omni-crisis that has been created by the conflict in the Middle East and the conflict in Europe.

“Under those circumstances, if a sizeable proportion of the parliamentary party don’t want you, I think it’s very hard to carry on.”

Lyons added: “All things are possible on this earth, but if an overwhelming majority of the parliamentary party have said they’re backing somebody else I think it’s very, very hard to carry on.

“Of course he’s going to say that he’s going to fight, you saw that with Boris Johnson and Liz Truss. Right until the last they said they were going to fight, and that’s the right thing to do.

“But come the early hours of next Friday morning, if it looks like Andy’s there, then I think that’s the time to start having some conversations about whether’s it’s in his interests or the country’s interests to have some sort of stable and orderly transition.”

Burnham is currently the clear favourite to see off the challenge of Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon and win next Thursday’s by-election.

He has confirmed that he will join any Labour leadership contest, with former health secretary Wes Streeting also saying he will throw his hat into the ring.

But Lyons said that even if Burnham loses, Starmer could still be replaced without the need for a leadership election.

He said: “I still think there’s a chance that people think the stakes are so high that they coalesce around another candidate.

“One of the names that’s been doing the rounds is Ed Miliband. I think Yvette Cooper is also underpriced. A lot of people in the Parliamentary Labour Party think it’s time that Labour had a woman prime minister.

“Anything could happen, but perhaps the bigger question is whether the Labour Party is a viable political vehicle if Andy Burnham can’t win Makerfield. It’s not obvious to me that the answer is yes.”

To listen to the full interview with James Lyons, as well as our report from Makerfield, download Commons People from wherever you get your podcasts