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If Starmer thinks McSweeney going helps him, he’s hopeless

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If Starmer thinks McSweeney going helps him, he's hopeless

Keir Starmer’s appalling chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, has quit. According to ‘mainstream’ media, Starmer hopes this will ease the pressure that he has been under from the ongoing Mandelson scandal. If he really thinks this, he’s more hopeless than we thought – and that’s a tough bar to cross.

McSweeney: a horror

McSweeney is a horror. Undeclared donations from the Israel lobby, spying on journalists, covert campaigns to destroy media that highlight his boss’s crimes, deep connections with genocidal Israel and a coordinated sabotage campaign to prevent Labour winning the 2019 general election. His fingerprints are on all of it.

McSweeney’s success in the 2019 general election saw hundreds of thousands die under Boris Johnson’s ‘pile the bodies high’ decision to let covid run rampant. His success in the 2020 Labour leadership election led to UK collaboration in Israel’s Gaza genocide. Not only that, but a war on Britain’s children, its poor and the rights of its people.

But in none of that was Starmer innocent. If he’s weak enough to be led by the nose by such a horror – and who would be surprised? – he’s unfit for office. If he were proactively involved in those decisions, he’s unfit for office. Either way, he’s unfit for office. Either way, he belongs in the dock and then in prison.

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Either way, he’s hated by the public and in the end the buck stops with him. Advisers advise, (prime) ministers decide.

The most hated PM ever?

McSweeney’s departure only moves Starmer a big step closer to the exit door and a place in history as the most hated PM ever. Even more than Thatcher, and that’s saying something – because he’s hated on the left and right alike. Starmer is a dead man walking – but who is there in his party to replace him who’s any better? None, at least none with any intention of standing – the party is too stuffed with brylcreem-a-likes and mini-hims for a change at the top to help it.

Starmer will be lucky to last until the Gorton and Denton by-election later this month. If he clings on, the almost certain third place – at best – his NHS-privatiser candidate will manage will see him gone.

As the saying goes, “For God’s sake man, just go!” And take your rotted corpse of a party with you.

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Featured image via the Canary

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Tomb Raider Pauses Production Following Sophie Turner Injury

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Tomb Raider Pauses Production Following Sophie Turner Injury

Production on the upcoming TV adaptation of Tomb Raider is currently on hold after its leading star Sophie Turner suffered an injury.

A spokesperson for the production company Amazon MGM Studio confirmed on Monday that the former Game Of Thrones actor had “recently experienced a minor injury” leading to production being “briefly paused to allow her time to recover” on a precautionary basis.

“We look forward to resuming production as soon as possible,” they added.

Sophie previously enthused: “I am thrilled beyond measure to be playing Lara Croft. She’s such an iconic character, who means so much to so many – and I am giving everything I’ve got.”

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Tomb Raider’s heroine Lara Croft has previously been played on the big screen by Oscar winners Angelina Jolie and Alicia Vikander, with Hayley Atwell also lending her voice to the character in a Netflix animated series.

Of her predecessors, Sophie added last year: “They’re massive shoes to fill, following in the steps of Angelina and Alicia with their powerhouse performances, but with Phoebe at the helm, we (and Lara) are all in very safe hands. I can’t wait for you all to see what we have cooking.”

Phoebe also beamed: “It’s not very often you get to make a show of this scale with a character you grew up loving.

“Everyone on board is wildly passionate about Lara and are all as outrageous, brave, and hilarious as she is. Get your artifacts out… Croft is coming…”

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Energy Crisis May Echo 70’s Oil Shock, Ex-BoE Deputy Says

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Energy Crisis May Echo 70's Oil Shock, Ex-BoE Deputy Says

The UK could be on the cusp of an energy crisis comparable to the chaos seen in the 1970s, according to a former deputy governor of the Bank of England.

Iran continues to restrict the number of oil tankers which can travel through the major shipping lane, the Strait of Hormuz, in retaliation against the US-Israel strikes from last month.

As the conflict continues, the global economy is facing a period of uncertainty – and energy bills are expected to rise, pushing up the cost of living.

The government is considering supporting some energy bills for targeted households once the current energy price cap lifts in July.

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As fears grow over what lies ahead, former deputy governor of the Bank of England, Sir Howard Davies, suggested it was “probably right” to compare the current era to the crises we saw in the 1970s.

World oil prices soared at the time, triggered by the 1973 Arab-Israeli war. The price of an oil barrel then quadrupled in a matter of months.

Arab oil-producing countries only ended their oil embargo against western nations after intense negotiations, though another crisis emerged in 1979 in the wake of the Iranian Revolution.

Davies compared that worldwide energy crisis to the current situation.

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“In this case it could well be that supplies from the Middle East are constrained for some time and therefore we may have to live with a higher oil price – perhaps not $150, but certainly higher than $60 it was when we started,” Davies told BBC Radio 4′s Today.

“That requires a plan to increase alternatives and also to reduce consumption because it also looks like we may have a long term reduction in supply.”

Brent crude oil hit $116 per barrel on Monday morning.

Could the UK be facing an energy crisis similar to the 1970s?

Sir Howard Davies, former deputy governor of the Bank of England, says it is the ‘right comparison’, and that it could be that ‘supplies from the Middle East are constrained for quite a long time’. pic.twitter.com/nM1Qt4zkGA

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— BBC Radio 4 Today (@BBCr4today) March 30, 2026

Keir Starmer tried to prevent any panic buying from the public when speaking to the media on Monday.

The PM said the advice from the energy sector chiefs is “normal use, no need to do anything other than what’s normal”.

He added: “Obviously, we are bearing down on energy costs. The single most important thing we could do is de-escalate to get the Strait of Hormuz open.

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“That’s why I’m putting so much effort into that aspect.”

A Downing Street spokesperson also said: “It’s obviously a serious conflict as the prime minister and the chancellor have said and they’ve been very clear that the impact of disruption to shipping and to the Strait of Hormuz is having an impact here in the UK, and households up and down the UK.”

He said the government’s focus is on working with international partners to de-escalate the situation and reopen the Strait.

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Radio 2 Host Scott Mills Fired From BBC After Personal Conduct Allegations

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Radio 2 Host Scott Mills Fired From BBC After Personal Conduct Allegations

Scott Mills has been axed from his role on the BBC Radio 2 breakfast show due to allegations relating to his behaviour.

Gary Davies has been sitting in for Scott on his usual Radio 2 slot since Tuesday 24 March, with the usual host signing off his previous day’s show by telling his listeners he’d be “back tomorrow”.

BBC News subsequently confirmed on Monday morning that the presenter would not be returning, following what it described as “allegations about his personal conduct”.

“While we do not comment on matters relating to individuals we can confirm Scott Mills is no longer contracted and has left the BBC,” a spokesperson said.

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Last year, Scott took over as the host of Radio 2′s flagship breakfast show from outgoing host Zoe Ball.

Before his sudden exit, he had worked with the BBC for almost 30 years, joining the corporation in 1998 as a presenter on Radio 1.

He remained with Radio 1 for more than a decade, before making the jump to BBC Radio 5 Live in 2019 and Radio 2 in 2022, initially taking over Steve Wright’s afternoon slot before being instated as the station’s breakfast show’s host.

In addition to his work on BBC Radio, he has served as the UK’s commentator during the semi-finals of the Eurovision Song Contest for a number of years, currently sharing the role with fellow broadcaster Rylan Clark.

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Back in 2024, he and his now-husband Sam Vaughan took part in the second season of Celebrity Race Across The World, going on to win the show.

With the regular series of Race Across The World due to return to our screens next month, BBC News noted that Scott had been due to present a companion podcast to accompany the show prior to him parting ways with the broadcaster.

He has also competed on Strictly Come Dancing, finishing in 11th place alongside professional partner Joanne Clifton back in 2014.

Scott also fronted a one-off documentary for the broadcaster in 2011, titled The World’s Worst Place to Be Gay?.

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3 Behaviours Split Those Who Live Long From Those Who Don’t

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3 Behaviours Split Those Who Live Long From Those Who Don't

GP Dr Dominic Greyer previously shared that strength training, good sleep, reducing inflammation, maintaining your “metabolic flexibility,” and enjoying life (in moderation) separates those who age well from those who don’t.

And a new paper, which focused on the short-lived African turqioise killifish, aimed to work out how different behaviours appeared to affect their ageing trajectories.

The fish, which were partly chosen because they shared “key biological features with longer-lived species like humans, including a complex brain”, shared the same genes and were raised in similar environments.

Researchers found that by midlife (for the fish, 70-100 days), fish that lived longer were already behaving differently from those that died sooner.

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Study leader Claire Bedbrook said, “Behavioural changes pretty early on in life are telling us about future health and future lifespan”.

What were the differences?

In this study, one of the biggest factors was sleep. Fish that had longer lives mostly slept at night, while those with shorter lifespans slept both at night and during the day.

Incidentally, longer naps, more disorganised nap times, and a higher percentage of naps taken at noon and in the early afternoon have been linked to increased mortality risk among humans.

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But activity mattered too.

Fish who swam harder and faster were likelier to live longer, “a measure of spontaneous movement that has been linked to longevity in other species as well”.

And fish that lived longer were more active in the daylight as well. A separate human study found that those who did the majority of their physical activity between 11am and 5pm, or mixed throughout the day, had a lower cardiovascular and all-cause mortality risk than those who moved mostly in the early morning or at night.

Ageing seemed to happen in stages

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The researchers noticed that ageing seemed to occur in two to six stages rather than gradually.

“We expected ageing to be a slow, gradual process,” Bedbrook said.

“Instead, animals stay stable for long periods and then transition very quickly into a new stage. Seeing this staged architecture appear from continuous behaviour alone was one of the most exciting discoveries.”

Researchers hope this will benefit humans

In an editor’s summary, senior editor at the journal Science, Mattia Maroso, said: “These results might lead to better understanding of the ageing process in other vertebrates, including humans”.

And speaking to Stanford Reports, study leader Ravi Nath said, “Behaviour turns out to be an incredibly sensitive readout of ageing… You can look at two animals of the same chronological age and see from their behaviour alone that they’re ageing very differently”.

The other study leader, Claire Bedbrook, shared, “We now have the tools to map ageing continuously in a vertebrate… With the rise of wearables and long-term tracking in humans, I’m excited to see whether the same principles – early predictors, staged ageing, divergent trajectories – hold true in people”.

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Wings Over Scotland | Clocks And Calendars

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We think The Scotsman might have gotten a bit confused and/or carried away when it came to putting the clocks forward at the weekend. At 6am on Sunday morning they tweeted this:

But the link was a 404. We checked the print edition of Scotland On Sunday but there was nothing there. Finally, though, the article has shown up in today’s paper and on the website, and to be honest, readers, we still think it must be some sort of mistake, because it’s two days early for April 1st.

And this is too batshit crazy to explain any other way.

Fortunately it’s the end of the month and time for our latest election analysis piece, so let’s pick our way through the madness. Heaven knows we could all do with the laugh.

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“Labour believes it has identified a route to forming the next Scottish government by flipping a dozen constituencies from the SNP and relying on a strong Reform performance on the regional list to deprive John Swinney’s party of the keys to Bute House.

Anas Sarwar’s team believe that in battlegrounds across the Central Belt, where constituencies can be framed as a straight fight between Labour and the SNP, turning 11 or 12 seats red would create three large party blocks, with an assumption Labour would be the only party able to form a government with the help of Reform.”

Good lord, where to even start? The first thing to note is that given all current polling figures, any constituency gains by Labour would be all but guaranteed to be wiped out by a corresponding loss of list seats, so the entire premise of this strategy is demented from the start.

If you look at the last 10 polls, Sarwar’s party is sitting on anywhere from 12% to 19% of the list vote, which ought to be good for 2-3 list seats per region, but if they picked up a few constituencies across the Central Belt that’d be slashed into single figures.

The definition of “Central Belt” is a matter of interpretation, but by any reasonable measure includes at least five regions and possibly six. West Scotland includes areas that anyone would class “Central Belt” – Clydebank, Milngavie, Strathkelvin, Eastwood.

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Obviously Edinburgh And Lothians East counts.

Same goes for Central Scotland (clue’s in the name!) And Lothians West.

Ditto for Glasgow.

Mid Scotland And Fife is probably the most debatable, but Dunfermline, Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy are hardly in the Highlands and are areas Labour has traditionally been strong in and will at least fancy a shot at. And remember, even picking up a single seat in (say) Kirkcaldy would be enough to halve Labour’s list vote for the whole region.

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There can’t be much debate about South Scotland either, unless you’re going to seriously try to dispute that Hamilton and East Kilbride are in the Central Belt.

(Wikipedia defines it as including large swathes of Fife and the Borders.)

So even if Labour picked up “11 or 12” constituencies due to their concentrated vote – and that’s a very, very big ask unless their polling dramatically improves – the likely impact on their total seat count would be zero, because they’d lose the same number on the list.

“The claim is they would have a “moral mandate” to govern, but in order to stand a chance of forming the next government, Labour needs the polls to tighten dramatically to around four or five points. Currently, Labour trails the SNP by around 18 points – meaning Mr Sarwar’s campaign will need to bring forward something extraordinary to move the dial on public opinion in the coming weeks.

No kidding. But even that understates the magnitude of the problem. Labour’s current constituency-vote polling (again on the last 10 polls, covering the whole of 2026) ranges from 12% to 20%, so to close an 18-point gap they’d need to almost DOUBLE it in the next five weeks, and if you think there’s the tiniest chance of that happening then please contact us at once to take advantage of a fantastic offer we’re currently running on magic beans.

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(Labour still haven’t managed to identify a single meaningful policy difference between themselves and the SNP, as Wings has been pointing out for the last three years and which the Scottish mainstream media has finally noticed.)

To be honest, after this arrant nonsense the rest of the Scotsman article is just padding and waffle to fill out the page.

“Labour’s potential route to Bute House would rely on unionist parties, including Reform, to vote in Mr Sarwar as first minister following May’s election, with Labour attempting to govern as a small minority administration.”

Even the most outlandish arithmetical scenario by which Sarwar could win a vote to become FM would require the support not just of Reform but also the Tories, Lib Dems and Greens. Let’s all just pause for a moment and ponder that five-party coalition including Malcolm Offord, Alex Cole-Hamilton and Ross Greer, shall we?

(I asked Grok to visualise it. Yikes.)

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But the paper clutches at one last straw.

“One potential scenario, seen by The Scotsman, forecasts that if Labour can take four of the six Glasgow constituencies, the SNP would not be fully supplemented for the losses on the regional list due to the strength of the anticipated Reform vote.

The scenario suggests that instead of the SNP picking up three regional list seats for Glasgow, Reform would come first as the highest performing party that has not won a constituency, with it likely four seats would then be split evenly between Labour and the SNP – with Reform picking up a second regional MSP.”

So even in the miraculous event of Labour picking up FOUR seats in Glasgow (where the SNP’s average majority is around 8,000), the supercoalition would only make a net gain of two, with Labour somehow getting TWO list seats despite their list vote having been divided by FIVE, which would currently put it on something like 3%.

(Which of course is nowhere even REMOTELY close to enough for a SINGLE list seat, let alone two. If they won four constituencies they’d need to be on around 40% of the list vote to have a chance of ONE list seat. They’ve achieved that exactly once in Scottish Parliament history, in 1999.)

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The only tiny theoretical chance for the Unionist parties to oust the SNP on anything like current polling is if Reform (the only opposition party who are reasonably strong across the country, not just in pockets of concentrated support) win a lot of constituencies, clearing the others to sweep up on the list. But that’s stupendously unlikely, because no other party is going to knock doors and tell people to vote for Reform. Labour trying to somehow achieve it by picking up a few seats in Glasgow is just suicidally stupid.

So, y’know, wow. We have every sympathy with the press in having to find stuff to write about over the next five wretched weeks and attempt to create some sort of jeopardy as to who’s going to win this election, but if this – “What if Labour suddenly DOUBLED their vote?” – is how crazy they’re getting when it’s still March, we dread to imagine what sort of desperate insanity we’re going to be reading by the start of May.

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The Best Fruit For Healthy Bones

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The Best Fruit For Healthy Bones

You probably already know that strength training and calcium can help to keep your bones healthy and strong as you age.

But some factors – like getting enough vitamin D, which helps to absorb calcium, and avoiding smoking, which raises your risk of osteoporosis and is linked to a 30-40% higher risk of broken hips – are less obvious.

And in one study, prunes, which are high in anti-inflammatory polyphenols and calcium-balancing vitamin K, appeared to preserve bone density and strength at weight-bearing parts of the hip for post-menopausal women.

What did the research show?

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The researchers followed a group of 235 postmenopausal women, who are at greater risk of bone loss, over a year.

They told one group to eat 50g (about five to six prunes) a day during the trial, and another group to eat 100g a day. A third group didn’t eat any prunes at all.

Though both prune levels were beneficial, the first group (50g) were more likely to stick to the habit, which meant they tended to get better results.

Professor Mary Jane De Souza, the study’s lead author, said: “Consuming five to six prunes a day for 12 months resulted in preservation of bone at the hip, a finding that was observable at six months and persisted through month 12.”

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Postmenopausal women who didn’t consume any prunes saw a 1.1% bone loss in the same time period, while for those in the study, it stayed the same.

That benefit could lead to fewer bone breaks.

It could have benefits for bone quality, too

The same group of women were part of another study looking at how prunes seemed to affect the structure and estimated strength of their tibia.

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“This is the first randomised controlled trial to look at three-dimensional bone outcomes with respect to bone structure, geometry and estimated strength,” Professor De Souza said.

“In our study, we saw that daily prune consumption impacted factors related to fracture risk. That’s clinically invaluable.”

She added that prunes may help to reduce the risk of osteoporosis, but more research is needed.

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Starmer Puts Anti-War Message At Front Of Local Election Campaign

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Starmer Puts Anti-War Message At Front Of Local Election Campaign

Keir Starmer has taken an indirect jab at Donald Trump while launching Labour’s local elections campaign.

Despite spending the first year of the president’s second term bending over backwards for Trump, the prime minister is now celebrating the distance between himself and the White House after it chose to bomb Iran.

Starmer has permitted US troops to use military bases for defensive and limited strikes on Iran, but refused to let American soldiers use the same sites for pre-emptive attacks.

Some fear that Iran may not differentiate between granting permission for defensive and offensive strikes.

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But, Trump has continually slammed the UK government repeatedly for not immediately assisting him with his operation in the Middle East.

Despite this strain in the “special relationship”, the PM even made his distance from the White House a selling point

Without directly mentioning Trump, Starmer claimed he would stand by his values “whatever the pressure and whoever it’s coming from”.

Speaking from Wolverhampton, he said: “People look at their screens and they’re worried when they see explosions, infrastructure blown up, the rhetoric that goes with it, worried about whether this is going to escalate even further.

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“And therefore it’s really important that I reiterate where I stand and where this government stands, because this is not our war and we are not going to be dragged into it.

“Yes, of course we will defend British lives and British interests in the region. We’ll stand by our allies in the Gulf region, but we’re not going to get dragged in.

“That’s my values, that’s my principles, and that’s what we’ve applied to our decisions, whatever the pressure and whoever it’s coming from.”

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Politics Home Article | PM Says Iran Conflict Is “Not Our War”

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PM Says Iran Conflict Is 'Not Our War'
PM Says Iran Conflict Is 'Not Our War'


3 min read

Keir Starmer has reiterated that the conflict in Iran is “not our war” and the UK is “not going to be dragged into it” as the government tries to protect households from the economic impact of the conflict.

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Speaking on Monday, the Prime Minister said that he knew the war in the Middle East, triggered by US and Israeli attacks on Iran, was “causing huge concern” for the public.

“Therefore, it’s really important that I reiterate where I stand and where this government stands, because this is not our war and we are not going to be dragged into it,” he said.

Starmer has granted the US permission to use UK bases for what he describes as defensive strikes on Tehran. However, he has refused to commit Britain to deeper involvement, leading to repeated public criticism from US President Donald Trump.

Later on Monday, the PM will host a Downing Street round table with senior leaders from the energy, shipping, financial and insurance sectors, alongside the UK’s Commander Maritime Operations, who will set out the security picture in the Strait of Hormuz and the Middle East.

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Iranian threats to attack ships travelling through the Strait of Hormuz, which is one of the most important trade routes in the world, have led to a spike in oil and gas prices since the conflict began.

Petrol prices in the UK have already been affected by the war, and the government is expected to announce financial support for households most exposed to rising energy bills.

However, there is now growing alarm over the impact on food prices, with fertiliser, crucial to food production, being impacted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

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Starmer was speaking to reporters at the launch of Labour’s local elections campaign in Wolverhampton.

The party is expected to face a bruising set of results when elections take place in English councils, Scotland and Wales on 7 May.

The PM has sought to make the Iran war a dividing line with his rivals, saying Tory leader Kemi Badenoch and Reform UK leader Nigel Farage wanted to go “straight in with both feet into the war without thinking through the consequences”.

“It’s terrible judgement because taking your country to war is the single most important decision a prime minister can ever take. 

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“And if they had been in government, we would be in a war with no plan.”

Starmer, whose own leadership could come under pressure if Labour’s performance in May is as bad as many in the party fear, pointed to what the government was doing to protect households from cost-of-living pressures worsened by the Iran war.

The PM has indicated that he wants to take a targeted approach to protecting people from soaring energy bills. 

Last week, he told MPs he was “acutely aware” of how much it cost the taxpayer when former prime minister Liz Truss gave blanket energy bill support in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

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Starmer also said this morning that he would chair another Cobra meeting on Tuesday to discuss the economic impact of the war.

However, he insisted that the advice to motorists is that there was “no need to do anything other than what is normal” amid warnings about fuel shortages.

On Sunday, Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson told Sky News that drivers should “fill up as normal” and insisted that the government was “well prepared” for disruption.

 

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Olax Outis appears in court over Churchill statue action

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Olax Outis appears in court over Churchill statue action

Dutch national Olax Outis from campaign group Free The Filton 24 Netherlands (NL) will appear at Southwark Crown Court on Monday 30 March after a month in prison without trial.

Olax Outis in court

Olax has been held in a UK prison for a month for allegedly defacing the Winston Churchill statue in Parliament Square with finger paint – a crime which in his home country would be considered a misdemeanor at most.

He has denied criminal damage, while the prosecution claimed that the finger paint caused £11,970 in damage to the statue.

Olax painted messages such as “NEVER AGAIN IS NOW”, “STOP THE GENICIDE”, “FREE PALESTINE”, “ZIONIST WAR CRIMINAL” and “GLOBALISE THE INTIFADA!” in the bronze Churchill statue on February 27, was arrested and has remained in custody since.

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The conditions of the UK prisons have been described by Olax as “grim”. He reported that some days he receives insufficient food, there are cockroaches in the cells and he is regularly moved around, making it incredibly difficult to keep in touch with his family abroad.

Silence

Today Olax will appear before Southwark Crown Court for his plea hearing where he will find out whether he will be released on bail, granted permanent release, or remain in custody for his peaceful resistance against complicity in the extermination of the Palestinian people.

His solitary action was the first by Free the Filton 24 NL outside the Netherlands. Since its inception, the group has stood in solidarity with the British resistance against the genocide in Palestine. The governments of both the Netherlands and the UK refuse to condemn the Palestinian genocide and are complicit through passive and active support for Israel.

The governments of the UK and the Netherlands remain silent regarding the arrest and disproportionate incarceration of Olax. Aside from automated email replies, there has been no response following emails and letters to the relevant ministries on Olax’ behalf.

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Featured image via the Canary

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‘Not our war’: NATO and the Iran crisis

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‘Not our war’: NATO and the Iran crisis

Mark Webber explores the impact of the Iran crisis on NATO, highlighting the trend towards an increasingly Europeanised alliance built on deeper ties and increased spending which he suggests will continue regardless of the outcome of the conflict. 

For NATO, these are hard times for optimism. Still, NATO’s upbeat Secretary General, Mark Rutte is not to be deflected. In mid-February, on the back of a seeming resolution of the Greenland crisis, Rutte claimed the alliance was ‘the strongest it has been since the fall of the Berlin Wall.’ In the midst of the US-Israel war with Iran, Rutte has managed both to commend the campaign and to suggest the allies will come out of it more united, not less.

Can one square this Panglossian position with the reality of the latest transatlantic trauma? President Trump, who never needs an excuse to belittle NATO, has suggested the alliance ‘faces a very bad future’ if its members do not help the US reopen the Straits of Hormuz, shuttered by Iran. A week ago, the UK along with nineteen NATO allies plus Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea expressed their ‘readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait.’ No discernible movement has, however, occurred since. At NATO HQ in Brussels, there has been no discussion of a coordinated maritime effort.

The war has impacted the alliance directly. Iranian missiles have been intercepted by NATO-supplied air defences in Turkey, the NATO training mission in Iraq has been withdrawn and US F35s have been transferred from the Cold Response exercise in Norway to the Gulf. Individual allies have been unwilling to join the US-Israeli campaign, but bases in several countries, including the UK, France, Germany, Greece, Italy and Portugal have been used to facilitate ‘one of the most logistically complex operations the US military has been involved in for decades.’ Only Spain has refused the US access to its bases.

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Practical support has thus not been inconsequential. But politically, the United States has acted in isolation. NATO’s major allies – Germany, the UK and France – have kept their distance. Trump’s current European bête noire, Spanish prime minister, Pedro Sánchez has publicly condemned the ‘illegal’ war. Even Trump’s supporters – the leaders of Italy, Hungary and Slovakia – have questioned the wisdom of the American campaign.

On Iran, just as with Greenland, NATO is divided between the United States and the rest. This could well feed an ongoing animus in the Trump administration. Trump (or, for that matter, his fellow NATO sceptics, Vice-President J.D. Vance and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth) could turn against the alliance at any moment. None of this bodes well for NATO’s next summit (scheduled for July in Ankara). By that point, the war will either be over on terms declared by the Trump administration or will have entrapped the American military in an unwinnable conflict. Either outcome is perilous for transatlantic unity. A self-defined victory would propel Trump toward further destructive acts of adventure. Failure, meanwhile, could have very similar results, as Trump chooses new targets to compensate for the Iranian misadventure and criticises allies to deflect blame for his own strategic ineptitude. Whether propelled by ambition or ire, action against Cuba seems increasingly likely. This would be a marginal issue for NATO. But a reprise of Trump’s hankering after Greenland would return the alliance to crisis mode.

The NATO allies have dealt with the demands of the two Trump administrations through a mixture of deference (agreeing to ambitious defence spending targets), detachment (as currently over Iran) and political resolve (as with the Greenland crisis earlier this year). In parallel, they have taken serious steps to reduce their military dependency on the United States. Some of this is out of urgent necessity. The Trump administration’s severance of military aid to Ukraine means the Europeans now fund the lion’s share of arms transfers to that embattled country. In addition, Europeans have deepened defence cooperation within the EU. They have also cooperated through overlapping minilateral and bilateral defence initiatives. This ‘clustering’ of defence is not new. The British-led Joint Expeditionary Force has been operational since 2015; the European Air Transport Command was established in 2010. Yet such initiatives have accelerated in recent years. Between 2022 and 2025, European states signed among themselves 135 bilateral defence partnerships.

NATO itself is quietly becoming Europeanised. And this, tellingly, has America’s support. In recent months, the Pentagon has helped execute a reform of the NATO command structure that will see Americans relinquishing oversight of NATO Joint Force Commands (JFC) Norfolk and Naples (where a Brit and Italian will take up command). German officers already command NATO’s two other JFCs at Brunssum and Ulm. US commanders will retain NATO’s tactical land and air commands and will acquire from the British oversight of NATO maritime command. The US is not, therefore, rushing for the exit. This is a gradual shift, but it is a planned one aimed at greater European responsibility. The US also wants greater European effort – the ability to field, according to Under Secretary of War, Elbridge Colby, a ‘preponderance of the forces required to deter and, if necessary, defeat conventional aggression in Europe.’ Here too there is marked progress. Defence budget increases alongside Finland and Sweden’s accession to NATO have boosted Europe’s military standing. In a conventional war with Russia, NATO would still struggle if the United States was not fully committed. However, the steps needed to correct this deficiency are, according to a recent Atlantic Council report ‘well within the capabilities of [the] NATO allies.’

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Three long-term trends now seem evident irrespective of the Iran war or, indeed, Trump’s disparagement of NATO. First, a security architecture is developing in Europe – involving the EU, a Europeanised NATO, clustered defence, and a de facto wartime alliance with Ukraine – which is not reliant on American design. The Trump administration is through the alliance engaged with but not seeking oversight of this network. Second, Europe’s centre of strategic gravity is now in the east and north. NATO ally Turkey has been exposed by the Iran war, but there are no moves afoot to galvanise NATO’s ‘southern’ agenda. NATO’s frontline is adjacent to Russia and here leadership on defence spending and military mobilisation is being demonstrated by Germany, Poland, the Baltics and the Nordic states, not by NATO’s traditional European big hitters France, Italy and the UK. Third, these developments, require strategic deftness. Clinging to the hope that America will rediscover its transatlantic vocation amounts to strategic paralysis. If, to return to Rutte, NATO is to be strong it will be so on the back of its European component.

By Mark Webber, Professor of International Politics, University of Birmingham

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