Politics
Iran Has The ‘Upper Hand’ In War Against Trump, Ex-MI6 Chief Says
Donald Trump insisted overnight that Tehran wants a deal to end the conflict “so badly” after he declared a five-day ceasefire, but Iran has accused the US of “negotiating with itself”.
Meanwhile, Israel and Iran are still exchanging strikes – even though the US president claims to have wiped out the majority of Iran’s missile launchers – and the Pentagon is reportedly considering deploying some troops to the warzone.
Almost a month after the president attacked Iran without telling US allies, ex-secret intelligence chief Alex Younger said it was clear Iran have the “upper hand”.
Speaking to The Economist, Younger said: “I regret having come to this conclusion because like many MI6 officers of my generation, we faced the violence and brutality of the IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] for most of our careers.
“There is no love lost between us and I shed no tears for [Iranian supreme leader] Ali Khamenei, who was killed at the beginning of this war.
“But the reality is the US underestimated the task and I think as of about two weeks ago, lost the initiative to Iran.
“In practice, the Iranian regime has been more resilient than I think anyone would have expected.
“They took some good decisions as early as last June about dispersing their military capability and delegating authority for the use of those weapons, which has given them significant extra resilience against this incredibly powerful air campaign.”
He said Tehran has embarked on “horizontal escalation”, meaning they’ve been firing rockets at anyone in range.
“At the time I thought it was nuts but in fact it has been a very good way of putting a direct price on the US – it sort of worked,” Younger said.
“And then they sort of understood the significance of the energy war and held the Straits at threat, and globalised ’[the conflict].”
Iran has effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz, which carries a fifth of the world’s oil supply, by targeting any ships using the waterway.
The move has damaged the global economy as it has led to a spike in the price of oil.
Younger claimed the regime has “played a weak hand pretty well”.
He also said Trump’s own remarks about “regime change” will confirm to Iran that they’re in a “civilisational war”, a “war of existence”.
“Whereas America has embarked on a war of choice,” Younger claimed. “In those terms I think that’s imbued them with more staying power than the US and certainly US counterparts.
“They know that now, and that really is giving them the whip-hand.”
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