Iran is holding a lot of cards when it comes to the price of oil

The US and Israel have accidentally made Iran a global oil superpower. This might sound exaggerated… But it is the view of esteemed scholar of air warfare Professor Robert Pape, whose damning critique of the attack on Iran has generated wide interest recently. Pape said on 12 March:

Iran hit 16 vessels so far in Strait of Hormuz.

That’s all it takes for Iran to control 20% of the world’s oil and become an oil hegemon — the number 1 strategic outcome US has sought to prevent in Middle East since 1970s.

He added:

Iran is not weakening— it is gaining power.

Dire straits, but not for Iran

The Straits of Hormuz are a narrow channel between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. They are natural chokepoint. Like the English channel, they are only 21 miles wide at their narrowest point. 20% of the world’s oil supply passes through annually.

The risks were well known. The straits been the topic of discussion for decades. Iran has long developed an ability to mine, blockade, or otherwise control the straits if attacked by the US and Israel. And Iran has now said it intends to do exactly that.

US-Israel attacked Iran first on 28 February without provocation. Iran was offering unprecedented concessions in negotiations at the time. The Pentagon has since stated there was no imminent threat from Iran. And the UN’s atomic watchdog, the IAEA, has said there is no evidence Iran was developing a nuclear weapon.

As a result of the attack, oil now sits around $100 a barrel. Under severe pressure, the International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed on 11 March to:

make 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency reserves available to the market to address disruptions in oil markets stemming from the war in the Middle East.

And here’s a key detail in the IEA statement:

An average of 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and oil products transited the Strait of Hormuz in 2025, or around 25% of the world’s seaborne oil trade. Options for oil flows to bypass the Strait of Hormuz are limited.

The Iranian government seem to be acutely aware of this fundamental material truth. Military spokesman Ebrahim Zolfaqari said on 11 March:

Get ready for oil be $200 a barrel, because the oil price depends on regional security which you have destabilised.

The Iranians – who say they won’t negotiate  – seem content to play a long game.

Fight for the straits

The US response has been to promise more aggression. They’ve floated everything from naval escorts, to a ground invasion, to picking off Iranian mines and boats one by one.

US general Dan Caine spoke to the issue on 13 March:

Rumours of a ground invasion continue. In response, Drop Site News reporter Jeremy Scahill told Zeteo the Trump administration was ‘high on its own supply’:

When you start to believe your own delusions, when you start to imply that every single Iranian is a prisoner to a dictatorship of a mullah—the rhetoric that these guys use at the Pentagon and at the White House on down—and you start to believe it, you know, get high on your own supply, then you start to say, oh well, if we come in with ground troops—and Netanyahu’s telling us the people are going to rise up—you end up at an utter catastrophe.

The US has made it a policy to lock Iran out of the world economy through sanctions and blockades. This is regardless of the impact of that policy on Iranians – the very people the US often performatively claims to care about.

Today, by its lack of foresight and strategic blundering, the US and Israel have handed effective control of a big chunk of the world’s economy to Iran. The US looks to have completely underestimated Iran: a country which seems to grow more determined, angry and defiant by the hour.

Featured image via the Canary