Is Nigel Farage’s Political Career Really ‘Dead In The Water’?

“Nigel Farage is dead in the water,” Piers Morgan boldly declared on the BBC last Sunday.

The broadcaster said the Reform UK leader has been left “rattled” by the row over the undeclared £5 million gift he received from a crypto billionaire.

Farage received the huge lump sum just before he announced he was running in the general election back in 2024.

Though he insists he has not broken any rules, he is being investigated by parliament’s standards watchdog for not declaring the money when he was elected MP for Clacton.

If he is found guilty, Farage could even face a by-election if he is suspended from parliament for longer than 10 days.

But a senior Reform UK source told HuffPost UK: “If Labour are smart, they’ll suspend him for nine days, which would mean he’s guilty but wouldn’t trigger a by-election.

“If they’re daft enough to suspend him for longer, Nigel would easily win the by-election and could then just turn around and say voters don’t care about it whenever the £5 million gift gets brought up again.”

It is Farage’s reaction to the furore which has raised eyebrows among his political allies, as well as as enemies.

Not so long ago, it was virtually impossible to switch on the TV or radio without being confronted by Farage’s grinning face, while he was holding press conferences the length and breadth of the country on a weekly basis.

But since the Harborne story was broken by The Guardian in April, he has been noticeably more camera-shy.

And when he has made himself available for scrutiny, his explanation for the gift, and what he plans to do with his massive windfall, has been far from consistent.

At first, he said the funds were to be spent on his private security, then he claimed it was given to him as a reward for his Brexit campaigning.

On a round of car crash interviews two weeks ago, he insisted it was no one’s business but his, and he could spend the money on Ferraris if he wanted to.

Farage has also insisted that the money was unconditional, but he now faces the prospect of a second parliamentary probe over claims he lobbied the Bank of England to drop a cryptocurrency plan that could have impacted Christopher Harborne’s own business.

Questions about Farage’s personal finances emerged again this week when it was revealed he was paid £270,000 – or £22,500 an hour – to promote a gold bullion company.

To make matters worse, The Times revealed on Wednesday that Farage has a property empire worth £4 million – with only two out of five his homes being declared to parliament.

Farage denies any wrongdoing, but even his own supporters are concerned about the effect the various controversies are having on the Reform leader.

“Nigel is tired and stressed,” said one ally. “He needs to have a rest.”

As the party’s frontman, recent months have been especially punishing for Farage.

He led his party’s campaign in the May 7 elections, which then straight into the Makerfield by-election, which saw Andy Burnham comfortably defeat Reform’s Robert Kenyon.

That result confirmed that despite leading in the national opinion polls for the best part of two years, Reform’s electoral record has been decidedly patchy of late.

In February, the Greens’ Hannah Spencer defeated Reform’s Matt Goodwin in the Gorton and Denton by-election.

And last October, Plaid Cymru won the Caerphilly by-election for the Welsh Senedd, confirming that anti-Reform tactical voting is a major problem for the party.

This will once again be evident in the by-election for the Greater Manchester mayoralty at the end of July, which Reform insiders concede they are likely to lose to Labour.

Internal divisions risk rocking Farage’s party, too.

Tensions between senior figures have burst into the open, with home affairs spokesperson Zia Yusuf publicly slapping down Treasury spokesperson Robert Jenrick in May over Reform’s own immigration plans.

Some see that as a foretaste of the jockeying for position which would inevitably take place if Farage did decide to chuck it all in – a scenario he openly speculated on in a recent LBC interview in which he also refused to say he wants to be prime minister.

Former Reform chair David Bull said earlier this month that Farage is not bigger than his party, but few believe that it would be business as usual for Reform should he end up being replaced by one of his underlings.

It is far too early to write Farage off, however.

This is a man, after all, whose time in the public eye appeared to be over until he made the unlikeliest of comebacks by coming third on I’m A Celebrity … Get Me Out Of Here! in 2023.

His victory in Clacton in 2024 also followed seven previously unsuccessful attempts to get a seat in the Commons.

If there is one thing Farage is good at, it is defying the odds.

Who, for instance, would have thought he would successfully campaign to take the UK out of the European Union when he first emerged on the political scene as chairman of the UK Independence Party back in 1998?

In this week’s Commons People podcast, we examine the row threatening to bring down the Reform leader – and assess whether or not the end really is nigh for the comeback kid of British politics.

Listen to Commons People, the podcast that makes politics easy. Every week, Kevin Schofield and Kate Nicholson unpack the week’s biggest stories to keep you informed. Join us for straightforward analysis of what’s going on at Westminster.