Israel has no plan in the feckless war on Iran

Israeli war criminals waging war on Iran, despite admitting to having no plan to beat Iran, will burn down the house and unleash chaos on the wider region. The heat is rising. Energy prices are soaring, ships are being rerouted, and we have even heard talks of maritime escort operations. So who cares if the general public opposes the conflict?

US-Israeli war threatens global oil supply

The massive spike in oil prices and the financial drain of a war whose first week cost USD 11 billion – US defence officials have admitted – has panicked Donald Trump. The arsonist who cried fire is now scrambling for an off-ramp, not to end suffering, but to save his purse, US finances, and the oil market.

But with the war killing 1,348 and injuring 17,000 in Iran, the IRGC-backed leadership wants to be sure the US and Israel think twice before launching another war like this.

Refusing to bow down to US-Israeli bullying, Iran has struck US allies in the Arabian Gulf. Missiles fired from Iran and Iraq – where it maintains proxies – have struck US military hardware, assets, and economic targets held by US allies in the region. This has left oil prices at a worryingly extreme high of $100 a barrel, forcing the International Energy Agency to order the release of emergency barrels.

Soaring costs will likely have a big impact on global economic growth too. Iran, meanwhile, in a targeted message for the US and Israel to back down, has said:

Get ready for oil to be $200 a barrel, because the oil price depends on regional security, which you have destabilised

What makes this even worse is that, despite Israel yearning for this war for decades, it knew the assault was only likely to do minimum damage to Iran and foment further anger.

“No clear plan for regime change”

A Guardian reporter in Jerusalem, Emma Graham-Harrison, spoke to Israeli security sources. She didn’t mention Israel’s genocide in Gaza or war crimes throughout the Middle East, but got some revealing admissions.

Citing these sources, Graham-Harrison said:

say it was never realistic to expect an air war could immediately collapse the Iranian government or replicate the policy pivot forced on Caracas.

Instead, one argued, that was just “wishful thinking”. Another source with whom Graham-Harrison spoke believes that:

[a] popular uprising during war was always extremely unlikely.

Far from ending future possibilities of Iran seeking nuclear weapons (which Israel, on the other hand, already has), she said sources suggest:

The assassination of Ali Khamenei may have compounded the nuclear threat from Iran.

Khamenei had “for decades held off on… ordering construction of a weapon”, she continued. But the massive military aggression of the US and Israel may now have cemented in the minds of Iran’s leadership, she explained, that:

a nuclear deterrent is the only guarantee of survival.

Nonetheless, in Israel, across civil society and the security and intelligence apparatus, there appears to be overwhelming support for this war. Netanyahu favoured weakening Iran’s weapons stocks and devastating its economy – cognisant that it would unleash hell on the wider region (from which Israel is not immune). Not least, ordinary Iranians have borne the brunt of Western sanctions against Iranian officials and military actors.

Israel, as the Guardian‘s sources suggest, seems likely to stay on course: war until the end. Israel doesn’t bother with the international rules-based order, which it repeatedly flouts. And firm support at home among Israeli society means that it’s business as usual. In other words, “a longer bombing campaign” is anticipated. As Graham-Harrison reported, Israel is:

willing to risk extending an open-ended conflict that began in Gaza and has lasted more than two years on shifting fronts, moving on to Lebanon, Syria, Iran and Yemen.

Critical voices must prevail

It’s clear that people in the UK and elsewhere in the West seriously doubt the reasoning behind the chaotic and devastating US-Israeli assault. And it seems X has even been drowning out these voices amidst the fog of war.

But polls continue to reveal that people keep opposing UK involvement in the mess its allies have created:

Even in the US, people distrust Donald Trump’s motives:

And in Europe, criticism is spreading too:

Whether social media platforms or establishment media outlets want to amplify public sentiment or not, the fact is there is massive opposition to the Iran war. And for the sake of peace and stability, we must fight to ensure ordinary voices prevail, and for war criminals to face the consequences.

Featured image via the Canary