Keir Starmer Nearing End Of PM Tenure

Keir Starmer could hardly have been more unequivocal when asked yet again whether he would fight any Labour leadership contest.

“I don’t think it should happen, but if it does then I will fight,” the prime minister said on Friday.

“And let me just be clear with you. That’s not about personal vanity, it’s not about stubbornness. It’s out of a very deep sense of duty.”

Allies of the PM describe him as “frustrated” and “angry” that his future is even up for debate less than two years after leading his party to a landslide election victory.

But whether he likes it or not, it is.

Former health secretary Wes Streeting has already said he will challenge Starmer, while Andy Burnham will also join any contest should he, as expected, win next week’s Makerfield by-election.

James `Lyons, who was director of communications in No.10 until last year, summed up the slightly surreal situation British politics now finds itself in.

“The full weight of the Labour Party’s still very considerable campaign machine is behind Andy Burnham to deliver the result that could end up with the prime minister being ousted,” he told HuffPost UK’s Commons People podcast.

Lyons said Starmer himself “will still think he can turn it round”, but that reality will hit him if Burnham’s victory is confirmed in the early hours of next Friday morning.

“If it looks like Andy’s there, then I think that’s the time to start having some conversations about whether’s it’s in his interests or the country’s interests to have some sort of stable and orderly transition,” he said.

Any lingering chance that Starmer could ride out his latest crisis were killed off by defence secretary John Healey’s excoriating resignation letter on Thursday hitting out at the lack of cash being made available in the government’s Defence Investment Plan.

“The excellent and extensive cross-government work that completed in January – overseen by you, me and the chancellor – confirmed the scale of the challenge and the rising demands on defence,” Healey wrote.

“Since then, you have been unable, and the Treasury has been unwilling, to commit the resources that the nation needs to defend the country at this time of rising threats.”

Healey’s message was even more impactful given his status as one of the cabinet’s most loyal ministers.

“John is both the most decent and most hardworking person in British politics,” one ally told HuffPost UK.

“People tend to forget that he was a Treasury minister or many years, so really understands what he’s been dealing with.

“His resignation letter was equal parts science, art and moral philosophy. And he will have agonised over every single word and phrasing.”

Healey’s bombshell made it all the more likely that Burnham will quickly become the next prime minister should he see off the challenge from Reform’s UK’s Robert Kenyon in Makerfield.

A Labour source said: “Until John’s resignation, I was imagining a scenario where a more marginal win for Andy might allow an orderly transition over an extended period of time, or even an early Keir v Andy contest leading to the PM hanging on before making a call on his own future in a year’s time.

“But I think John going has made the period ahead much more difficult to predict.”

Sitting outside Burnham’s HQ, the Stubshaw Cross Community and Sports Club, Labour campaign boss Louise Haigh MP insisted they were taking nothing for granted.

She said: “We think it’s going to be close. Reform got 50% of the vote here a month ago, so we’re having to persuade people who voted Reform just a few weeks ago to come over to us, so it’s a really big ask.

“But what is absolutely clear is the Burnham bounce is real and that no other Labour candidate could be in contention.”

The campaign’s efforts in the run-up to polling day will be focused on the 16% of voters who are still undecided. If enough of them break for Burnham, then his path to 10 Downing Street becomes clear.

HuffPost UK has learned that Burnham supporters at Westminster are already gathering nominations for his leadership bid should he win next Thursday.

They hope to collect far more than the 81 required to trigger a contest, thereby creating a sense of unstoppable momentum which they believe would be enough to quickly see him sweep to power.

Lyons, who saw Starmer work up close during his time in No.10, said: “I think there’s every chance that what we will see is a coronation and we will see a significant number of MPs nominating Andy in a way that makes it very difficult for the prime minister to fight on.

“I know in his heart he will want to [fight on], he definitely feels he is the best person to be leading the country during this omni-crisis that has been created by the conflict in the Middle East and the conflict in Europe.

“Under those circumstances, if a sizeable proportion of the parliamentary party don’t want you, I think it’s very hard to carry on.”

Keir Starmer’s belief that he should fight on to save his job is undoubtedly sincere.

But it will soon become apparent that it is a battle he will lose and should therefore be avoided.