Keir Starmers Premiership Hang In The Balance

For Labour, the elections on May 7 have been looming on the horizon like a giant, immovable iceberg for months.

Every opinion poll tells the same story: voters in England, Scotland and Wales are preparing to deliver an unforgiving verdict on Keir Starmer’s first 22 months in power.

Up to 2,000 council seats are set to be lost, while the SNP will romp to another victory at Holyrood and Labour will lose a Welsh election for the first time in the party’s history.

After another hellish week for the prime minister dominated by the latest developments in the Peter Mandelson scandal, many at Westminster now think that the sheer scale of Labour’s humiliation will finally trigger moves to remove Starmer from Downing Street.

“I suspect the people round Keir know it’s coming to an end,” said one senior Labour figure. “He only has a few supporters left – they can surely see the writing on the wall?”

An idea gaining traction in some quarters is that, to end the speculation about his future, Starmer should announce when he plans to stand down.

“Post-May, MPs will start saying Keir has to set out a timetable for going,” said one proponent.

“Labour can’t make the mistakes the Democrats made in America. Joe Biden left it too late to go and helped usher in Trump. Keir is helping to usher in Nigel Farage.

“He should announce he’s going in the next 12 months to allow an orderly transition to a new Labour prime minister.

“He can then focus on legacy issues he cares about for final year. That would allow a new leader to be in place by summer 2027.”

Of course, Starmer would need to be amenable to such a scenario, and there is little sign that a man who came to Westminster relatively late in life has any desire to call it quits less than two years after becoming PM.

HuffPost UK has also learned that Downing Street officials plan to mount an “Operation Save Starmer” in the aftermath of May 7 to try and keep their boss in his job.

Another significant flaw in the plan to oust the PM is that any new leader would be under intense pressure to call an early general election, possibly as soon as next year.

“You couldn’t have a new leader coming in with an entirely different policy prospectus and not go to the country,” said one Labour insider. “The public simply wouldn’t wear it.”

For those Labour MPs who are all-but guaranteed to lose their seats, a general election in 2027 is not an attractive prospect.

Others are less certain of Starmer’s imminent demise, however, pointing to the fact that the PM’s critics cannot agree on his replacement.

“Nothing’s going to happen until the cabinet can agree on who should take over,” said a Labour veteran.

Defence secretary John Healey has his supporters, while foreign secretary Yvette Cooper – who stood for the leadership in 2015 – is said to be taking soundings from Labour MPs.

“Yvette is definitely sniffing around it,” said an insider. “There’s some talk of her doing a deal with Wes [Streeting], which could see him become her chancellor.”

Of course, Streeting has not given up his leadership ambitions, although one party grandee said the health secretary’s own links to Mandelson mean his hopes of becoming PM are now “done”.

Angela Rayner’s ongoing entanglements with His Majesty’s Revenue and Customs over her tax affairs would appear to rule out any leadership challenge in the short-term.

Andy Burnham’s enduring popularity with the public – a rarity for a senior Labour politician these days – means he is favoured by many MPs.

“The Burnham train has left the station and everybody will be clambering to get on it,” an MP told HuffPost UK.

But until he can find a way back to Westminster – he is believed to have his eye on Peter Dowd’s Bootle seat – his leadership hopes remain on hold.

“I think the best way to describe the current situation is ‘stuck’,” said one source. “But the election results are going to be disastrous and that could trigger a response – that could be the thing that unsticks it.”

One MP who remains supportive of Starmer said his removal was “not going to happen”.

“There could be a reshuffle, but nothing more,” the MP said. “None of the contenders is able to move right now.”

A cabinet minister conceded “it’s been a bad week” for Starmer, but insisted the speculation about his future was “overdone”.

“It was aways going to be difficult local elections period, but I really don’t think there’s a huge desire for change or a settled view on what any change would be.

“The point of changing is that the person with whom you replace the prime minister is definitely better than him. Who is that person?”

A government source said the growing campaign to oust the PM could provoke its own backlash.

He said: “I think a lot of MPs will take a dim view of what is a concerted campaign to push out a Labour prime minister, and that could lead to a ‘rally round the flag’ moment.

“If the question is who can best lead this country through a geopolitical crisis and has the gravitas to manage all these conflicts, I think Keir is pretty much the best answer to that question.

“John and Yvette are undoubtedly very capable people, but I think Keir is a better answer that Streeting, Rayner and Burnham.

“Of course it’s been a really difficult week, but I don’t think it’s going to change anything fundamentally.

“I don’t think any of the other candidates can answer the question of would they be better, or how can they manage a transition process to a new PM that doesn’t knock us out of government for a generation.”

Another insider said there was a far more pragmatic reason for the other leadership contenders not to move against Starmer just yet.

“If I was Angie or Wes looking at the economic fallout of the Iran war, I’d think that getting into power this summer looks much less appetising than it did six months ago when we were looking at a growing economy, falling NHS waiting lists and falling inflation,” they said.

“If it were me I’d be thinking ‘do I want to be in charge now’.”

The PM’s spokesman stretched credulity on Friday when he told reporters that his boss will be in charge until the next election and beyond.

“He’s very focused on the job,” the spokesman said. “He will continue to lead the government throughout this parliament and beyond.

“He’s got a huge amount of work to do, the governments got a huge amount of work to do.

“We’ve set out a significant programme of domestic reform, including bringing down NHS waiting lists, tackling the cost of living and investing in security and defence. That’s where the prime minister is fully focused.”

Few truly believe that Starmer will still be prime minister by the time of the next election.

But it is by no means certain that May 7 will trigger an unstoppable chain of events which will see him depart No.10 within weeks.

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