Labour Denies Holborn St Pancras Snap Election Trigger

Senior Labour sources have denied that a victory in a crunch by-election next month could trigger a snap general election.

Voters in Holborn and St Pancras will go to the polls on October 8 to choose a successor to Keir Starmer.

The former prime minister retained the seat with a majority of around 11,500 at the 2024 election, and the constituency has been held by Labour since it was created in 1983.

However, the Greens are hopeful of pulling off a major upset after choosing party leader Zack Polanski as their candidate last week.

It has been reported that Labour see the by-election as a “dry run” for a possible early general election.

A Labour win, it has been claimed, would show that under Andy Burnham’s leadership, the party is no longer losing the support of left-of-centre voters to the Greens.

“If we can beat Polanski in a by-election it will show that Labour is in good shape to fight a general election,” one source told The Independent.

However, a senior Labour source told HuffPost UK that was “utter utter horsegrade manure”.

A second Labour insider said: “It’s utter nonsense. The party is about to have a new general secretary in three weeks. Nobody is even talking about prepping for a general election.”

Labour has enjoyed an increase in support since Burnham became PM in July, and is now ahead of Reform UK and the Conservatives in most opinion polls.

But an analysis by Election Maps UK forecast Labour would lose its 166-seat majority if an election were held now.

It suggested that Labour would comfortably be the largest party with 253 MPs, but would probably need the support of the Lib Dems to govern.

Burnham himself has repeatedly ruled out the prospect on an early election.

Speaking to the BBC in July, he said: “There’s no early general election. I don’t think people want it.”

Listen to Commons People, the podcast that makes politics easy. Every week, Kevin Schofield and Kate Nicholson unpack the week’s biggest stories to keep you informed. Join us for straightforward analysis of what’s going on at Westminster.