Labour On Course To Be Largest Party In A General Election, Dwarfing Reform

Labour is on course to be the largest party in a general election, according to a new poll, leaving Reform UK a distant second.

The More in Common think tank has predicted Labour would win 250 seats in a hung parliament – 76 short of a majority – if Brits were to head back to the ballot box now.

Reform UK would win 147, the Conservatives 125, the Liberal Democrats 63 and the Greens just three.

The major MRP survey, which polled more than 15,000 British adults, will be a welcome boost to Labour just before its annual party conference in Liverpool begins.

The poll suggested Andy Burnham’s leadership had transformed Labour’s electoral chances since replacing Keir Starmer in July.

More in Common carried out a similar survey three months ago and found Reform would win 293 seats and Labour just 110.

The think tank found 214 seat projections – 143 of them to Labour – have changed since Burnham got the keys to No.10.

Labour appears to be recovering in Scotland too, as the poll shows it would win 18 seats up from just five.

However, More in Common did predict the SNP would remain the largest party with 27 out of 57.

And Labour is evidently not out of the woods yet, being still 161 seats down from their July 2024 landslide victory.

The survey found nearly half of all seats (48%) would be won by fewer than five points, making it an incredibly marginal election.

Even so, the poll also suggest Burnham’s focus on devolution has helped win over voters as Labour’s support has moved away from London.

In July, 44% of Labour’s projected seats were in the capital, but that has now decreased to 21% due to a surge in the North East, North West and Wales.

Meanwhile, Reform is struggling due to the split in the right-wing vote as splinter group Restore Britain takes crucial support, possibly costing Farage dozens of seats.

UK director at More in Common, Luke Tryl, said: “On the eve of last year’s Labour Party Conference, our MRP projected Reform could get close to a three figure majority, while both Labour and the Conservatives dropped to below triple figures.

“Fast forward to today, and it is clear the electoral landscape has transformed dramatically with Andy Burnham as prime minister. “

Tryl continued: “But far from representing a return to politics as normal, volatility has become the new watch word of our electoral system.

“The model projects that almost half of the seats would be won on margins of less than 5 per cent, meaning small swings in either direction could see any of the Tories, Reform or Labour ending up on top.

“And while the Labour advantage in seats is comfortable even on these numbers, they would still be forced into a multi-party coalition or arrangement to maintain power.”

Tryl added that Burnham’s decision to rule out an early election “is a sensible one”.

He said: “While Labour is off its death bed, the party’s recovery is far from complete.

“To call a poll the prime minister would have had to be willing to risk the careers of scores of his colleagues including his chancellor and foreign secretary, while even small shifts in the current numbers would have left him vulnerable to having a stint in Downing Street only longer than that of Liz Truss.”

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