Labour On Track To Win Election But Lose Commons Majority

Labour would win a general election if it was held now – but lose more than 150 MPs and the party’s huge Commons majority.

A new study of recent opinion polls suggests Andy Burnham would return to 10 Downing Street as prime minister.

However, he would be forced to do deals with other parties to govern after falling well short of a majority in parliament.

The UK Polling Report findings come amid speculation at Westminster that Burnham could call a snap election within months to capitalise on Labour’s resurgence under his leadership.

The party is now leading Reform UK in most opinion polls – a dramatic turnaround from when Keir Starmer was still PM.

A poll of polls by Election Maps UK puts Labour on 26%, with Reform on 24% and the Conservatives on 20%.

According to UK Polling Report, an election now would see Labour return 239 MPs, 173 fewer than in 2024 and wiping out the party’s 167-seat majority.

Reform would come second on 128 seats, one ahead of the Tories on 127.

The Lib Dems would win 73 seats, the SNP would surge to 41, with the Greens on 6 and Plaid Cymru on 4.

Such a result would leave Labour 87 seats short of an overall Commons majority.

In that scenario, Burnham would most likely look to do a deal with Lib Dem leader Ed Davey, even though that would still not be enough to guarantee him a majority.

The next general election does not need to take place until 2029, and the prime minister has insisted that he has no plans to call one before then.

Speaking to the BBC in July, he said: “There’s no early general election. I don’t think people want it.”

Nevertheless, many senior Labour figures believe Burnham should capitalise on his current popularity by going to the country at some point between now and next spring.

Former Labour adviser Liz Bates told HuffPost UK’s Commons People podcast: “I would be tempted, if I was him, to go for it because you get the new manager bounce, Farage is looking bonkers to be honest … the Greens seem to be in a bit of a tricky spot as well.

“It’s probably not going to get better than this [for Burnham]. They will think it’s going to get better than this because it feels like ‘we’re great, we’re better than Keir, look at us’.

“When things get tough and the pressure comes on to have a general election, if you’re down in the polls at that point, all your options narrow. I would do it when things feel sunny and positive.”

Her comments echoed those of former Theresa May pollster James Johnson, who has said an election by next spring is Burnham’s best chance of securing his own Commons majority, defeating Reform and destroying the Tories.

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