Politics
Labour ‘sitting on sidelines’ as US/Russia nuclear treaty expires
The UK government stands accused of “sitting on the sidelines” of international nuclear weapons risk reduction diplomacy. This follows the expiration of New START (New Strategic Arms Reductions Treaty). It limited the number of nuclear weapons the US and Russia could hold.
US president Barack Obama and Russian president Dmitry Medvedev signed the agreement in 2010 and it came into force in 2011.
According to the Chatham House think tank, which focuses on international affairs:
The treaty caps the US and Russia each at 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads, 800 deployed and non-deployed strategic launchers, and up to 700 deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and heavy bombers.
It also established detailed transparency and verification mechanisms, including data exchanges, notifications and on-site inspections.
Russia had expressed interest in a voluntary one year extension of the treaty after its scheduled expiration on 5 February 2026, which US president Donald Trump said on 5 October 2025 sounded “like a good idea”. But in the end, no legally binding nor voluntary extension was agreed.
UK government ‘regularly raises’ nuclear risk reduction with US and Russia
Later in October 2025, Liberal Democrat MP David Chadwick and Conservative MP Ben Obese-Jecty separately asked the UK government what it was doing to encourage extending the term of the treaty.
In response, Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office minister of state Stephen Doughty said:
The New START Treaty is a bilateral agreement between the United States and Russian Federation; any replacement treaty is a matter for the US and Russia.
The UK regularly raises issues related to strategic risk reduction, including arms control with the USA and Russia through the expert-level P5 process.
According to the European Leadership Network, the P5 process:
brings together the five nuclear weapon states (NWS)—China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States—recognised by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in a dedicated forum to discuss their unique responsibilities under the Treaty.
Doughty continued:
Genuine and verifiable strategic arms control among the largest Nuclear Weapons States can be a positive step for global security.
However, following Russia’s decision to suspend participation in New START verification measures in 2023, future approaches need to be based on concrete, and verifiable actions.
On 2 February 2026, Labour MP John Grady asked prime minister Keir Starmer if he had discussed nuclear weapons risks with his Chinese counterpart, during a House of Commons debate about Starmer’s recent visit to China:
China is a significant and growing nuclear power, with more than 600 warheads, and this week the US-Russia New START treaty comes to an end.
Can the Prime Minister tell me if the UK is engaging with China at the highest levels to prevent the risk of nuclear weapons and combat nuclear proliferation?
Starmer responded:
I assure my hon. Friend that our discussions with China did include how we derisk the risk in relation to nuclear weapons.
Government accused of ‘sitting on the sidelines’ of nuclear weapons diplomacy
Reacting to the treaty’s expiration, CND (Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament) general secretary Sophie Bolt said:
The collapse of New START without a replacement represents a serious and dangerous step backwards for global arms control.
To get this back on track, we need global public pressure to push for interim measures that could be agreed between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin today!
This could involve a one-year moratorium on exceeding New START caps, the resumption of inspections, and a moratorium on deploying new anti-ballistic missile systems like Trump’s Golden Dome.
A new treaty is possible if pressure is put on these governments to come to an agreement, which will build momentum to further nuclear arms control agreements involving more nuclear powers.
As a nuclear-armed state, Britain has clear obligations under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty to pursue disarmament in good faith.
Rather than sitting on the sidelines, the government could show leadership and use its diplomatic influence to push for the US and Russia to extend New START.
CND has written to David Riley UK Ambassador and Permanent Representative to the Conference on Disarmament and our members are lobbying Yvette Cooper, Foreign Secretary, urging them to use their influence to secure the extension of the Treaty.
Treaty expiration raises risk of ‘accidental catastrophic launches’
The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) describes itself as:
the international campaign to stigmatise, prohibit & eliminate nuclear weapons.
Speaking just ahead of the expiration, ICAN director of programmes Susi Snyder told the Canary:
When New START expires, there will no longer be any controls on the number and types of weapons that Russia and the US can deploy which could increase tensions between them and increase the risk of a major nuclear conflict that would devastate the world.
The existence of the New START treaty helped to reduce the risk of conflict by engendering trust and improving understanding between the two countries’ personnel on nuclear weapons-related issues.
Once the treaty is defunct, this distrust can only deepen, increasing risks of accidental catastrophic launches.
Russia had already suspended some of these confidence building measures in response to US support for Ukraine, and distrust has already been growing between the two countries about their nuclear weapons intentions and policies, increasing the risk of misunderstandings and accidental conflict.
In response to the discussions about a possible voluntary extension of the treaty, Snyder said:
In the short term, the US and Russia should publicly commit to respect New START’s limits while a new framework is negotiated.
They should restart serious disarmament talks and bring their warhead numbers down significantly, which would build confidence with the other nuclear-armed states that it is worthwhile engaging in broader disarmament discussions.
All nuclear armed countries have to recognise that arms control alone is no longer enough.
These weapons need to be eliminated before they are used again and the way to do that is through the UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, which a majority of countries have already signed or ratified only five years after it came into force.
On 5 February 2026, Trump posted on social media, saying:
Rather than extend ‘NEW START’ (A badly negotiated deal by the United States that, aside from everything else, is being grossly violated), we should have our Nuclear Experts work on a new, improved, and modernized Treaty that can last long into the future.
Looking to the future of international cooperation on nuclear weapons risks, Snyder said:
Despite the collapse of this last arms control agreement, there is a bright spot on the disarmament horizon – the UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) which came into force five years ago and a majority of countries have already signed and ratified.
More countries are set to sign and ratify it soon. The more countries that join, the more the diplomatic pressure on the nuclear-armed countries and their allies that endorse the use of nuclear weapons to take action to get rid of these weapons grows.
She said this could work:
in the same way it did for other weapons that cause disproportionate, lingering harm to civilians, such as landmines and cluster munitions.
The TPNW countries will be meeting later in the year for the treaty’s first review conference where they will agree on steps to strengthen the treaty, including in its important work to support the people and communities around the world harmed by the more than 2000 nuclear test explosions since 1945.
According to Snyder, the expiration of New START has created:
a real danger the new arms race will accelerate between the US and Russia – more warheads, more delivery systems, more exercises – and other nuclear-armed states will feel pressure to keep up.
That makes every crisis more dangerous and increases the risk of mistakes and miscalculation. It also sends the worst possible signal to the rest of the world: that the nuclear powers are going backwards on disarmament, just when they should be leading.
New START failure shows world ‘tipping back towards conflict’ – peer
The Green Party peer Jenny Jones told the Canary:
The failure to renew the New START nuclear treaty shows how the world is tipping back towards conflict.
The threat of nuclear weapons being used hasn’t been this high for years, but instead of stepping back and negotiating, we have the possibility of Washington and Moscow unleashing a new nuclear arms race.
I’m worried that this sends all the wrong messages ahead of the review of the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty later this year.
Featured image via the Canary