Labour/Tory support has dropped 37 points since last elections

As reported by Stats for Lefties, support for the two main parties – Labour and the Tories – has tanked:

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Ahead of local elections, how have polls shifted since the last time these seats were contested (in 2022)?

Ref +24.2
Grn +10.7
Lib +1.7
Con -15.5
Lab -21.6

Since last time these seats were up, support for the two big parties has fallen by over **37pts** pic.twitter.com/bYcWyHBSoO

— Stats for Lefties (@LeftieStats) April 20, 2026

At this point, we should probably stop calling them the ‘two main parties’.

While they hold the most seats right now, that almost certainly won’t be the case come the next general election.

Fading fortunes of Labour and the Tories

Unfortunately, it looks like Reform UK are set to capitalise on the downfall of Labour and the Tories. In addition to the above, Reform have once again opened up a significant lead with the pollster YouGov:

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POLL | Reform lead by 10pts

Ref: 27% (+3)
Grn: 17% (-1)
Con: 17% (-2)
Lab: 16% (-1)
Lib: 14% (+1)

— Seats —
Ref: 337
Lib: 89
Grn: 82
SNP: 47
Con: 40
Lab: 23
Plaid: 10

Poll: @YouGov, 19-20 Apr 2026 (+/- vs 13 Apr) pic.twitter.com/3Q8lGtwMA9

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— Stats for Lefties (@LeftieStats) April 21, 2026

If an election happened today, the above result would see Reform UK securing a majority government. We dread to think what that would look like (although it probably wouldn’t be any different to a Reform-Tory coalition).

Reform’s polling bounce has come despite the constant controversies of the past few weeks, including:

• Reform activist said ‘Hitler was right’.
• Reform candidate wants to ‘tear down’ the NHS.
• Reform welcomes ‘shoot the p*kis’ scandal ex-Tory.
• Reform UK accused of ‘nil vetting’ as another racist candidate exposed.
• Farage heckled at Reform’s Jimmy Saville-aping London launch.

The ‘glass half full’ analysis is that voters see Reform as the logical protest vote.

With Labour PM Keir Starmer embroiled in many controversies of his own, the UK public have much to protest:

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You don’t need a vetting process to tell you that you shouldn’t appoint the best friend of a convicted paedophile who continued the friendship after the conviction. Starmer knew, he should go. https://t.co/ISHehVDvnY

— Mark Roberts (@Roberts_Mark_) April 21, 2026

The other note of optimism is that Reform have struggled to turn their national polling into local success. Most notably this happened in the Caerphilly by-election, and also in Gorton & Denton:

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Sore loser Farage can't accept that Reform's man in Gorton & Denton was a dud, so he's resorted to accusing the Green Party of cheating.https://t.co/N0t4YG65X2

— Canary (@TheCanaryUK) February 27, 2026

The problem for Reform is that the party is incredibly polarising. Their supporters love them, but their detractors will go out of their way to ensure they don’t get in.

This has kept Reform out in by-elections; we’ll see if the same proves true in the locals.

Problems regardless

Should Reform perform as expected, this still may not benefit them in the long run. The party runs several councils now, and the consequence of that is people have got to see how Reform govern.

Horror stories we’ve covered include:

• Reform councillor reposts that Labour MP ‘should be shot’.
• Reform councillor dramatically quits over council tax betrayal.
• What a surprise – Reform councillor attends just one meeting and sends two emails in six months.
• Reform councillor fined £40,000 for hiring ‘illegal’ workers.
• Reform councillor would like to see wage cuts to fund his pay rise.

Reform may have considerably more councillors after the local elections. This will mean they have considerably more scandals, and that the public gets a much better idea of the threat they represent.

Let’s hope that reality doesn’t manifest, and that Reform underperform this May.

If you want to see that happen, be sure to get out there and vote.

Featured image via Stats for Lefties

By Willem Moore

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