Lies, betrayal, scandal and civil war – but can the Conservatives benefit now it’s not them going through it

It has everything the media could want and the country could do without.

A paedophile sex trafficker, a big beast politician who has held high office and been sacked three times, possibly the Russians, countless victims of the first with horrific stories of abuse, a Prime Minister, Advisers, spooks and two former Princes: one once of the House of Windsor the other of ‘Darkness’

Political hacks, and I’ve been one, will occasionally play, for their own amusement, a game of who can come up with a scandal that has it all. This one, had anyone dared suggest it, fits the bill.

Many outside the media bubble are describing it as the biggest ever scandal in British politics, edging Profumo and Kelly out to allow the name Mandelson to overtake it. His former Lordship clearly felt his last two falls from grace were not sufficiently spectacular enough and he’s decided third time unlucky.

Only luck has nothing to do with it.

Despite his lucrative dismissal from the highest diplomatic position Britain has to offer, the choice to appoint in the first place was made in Downing Street, against warnings – and even David Lammy, the then Foreign Secretary who actually did the appointing, has let it be known he warned about it – as the PM’s rivals, sorry, colleagues, dive for cover.

Last Wednesday Kemi Badenoch fired the potential kill shot.

She simultaneously proved that whilst strong performances at PMQs are not enough to make someone Prime Minister, on occasion they matter enormously, and that when you disprove naysayers who complain you weren’t good enough at it, being consistently better and better is seemingly never enough.

The impact of forcing this Prime Minister to damn himself at the dispatch box in one word was nothing short of seismic.

Part of Badenoch’s personal revival has been built on an impressive collection of scalps. Hitherto it’s contained a gaggle of Ministers, a deputy leader and deputy Prime Minister, the infamous Mandelson himself, and now she’s going for the big  two. The Prime Minister’s chief of staff and the PM himself.

Downing Street this weekend is seething with anger and resentment. Starmer has been swinging between enough foul-mouthed fury to fuel a power plant, and a sense of bitter betrayal that is souring dealings with a cabinet that have concluded Labour would be better off following the Tories past example and swapping horses mid race.

That there is ‘no way back’ for Sir Keir is now old news. He may still cling on, his own fall is not a done deal, but he can’t ‘turn it around’ now. When he answered Badenoch’s question whether security vetting had mentioned Mandelson’s ongoing relationship with paedophile Jeffrey Epstein, post-conviction with a hesitant ‘Yes’ he confirmed what everyone felt they knew. And so did he, but appointed him anyway.

As someone who has gone through that vetting process, it is hard to see how Mandelson ‘lied and lied again’ with much success. Starmer habitually looks for others to blame, and has called for an immediate tightening of vetting procedures. Well without going into detail, they seemed pretty ‘tight’ to me!

Four hours with a quietly persistent inquisitor who ran through practically every aspect of this story but applied to me. Questions, however intrusive and unexpected on sex, money, substances, abuse, nothing is off limits where they are not judging, but seeking, as I suspect Epstein did, for anything that could make you susceptible to blackmail or ‘Kompromat’. There’s only two bits of advice you get whispered to you beforehand by those who’ve endured it already: ‘don’t lie, and if they ask a question they probably already know the answer’ they just want to see if yours matches the ones they have.

I can see why there are questions about how someone like Mandelson could possibly have got through, but we now know there were warnings in there that the PM was informed of, and decided to take the risk anyway.

It’s that, more than anything, that’s blown this up in Starmer’s face. As one shadow Cabinet member told me:

“Think of all the people, like Gove, Marr and Finkelstein, and some of your colleagues in the lobby who wrote the risk was worth taking, a ‘bold and clever move’. That’s the point with risk – if it pays off you look a genius, if it doesn’t you look a fool. Starmer was urged to, and took, a massive risk, ignoring other people who were up to the job, and it didn’t pay off. The consequences however are all of his own making. If Mandelson was right that Epstein is ‘like dog mess’, Starmer’s just rolled and rolled in it”

That the story has moved to ‘who replaces Starmer’ not just in the media but the Labour party shows he too can’t get rid of the smell. Beaten and bruised in the way he most despises, his ‘integrity’ called into question. The immediate outlook for Labour is bleak.

So the Conservatives must be feeling pretty good, right?

Reform have not made the running on this. As the Telegraph’s front page interview with Badenoch this weekend is subtitled – and remember the months where the Tories struggled to get a hearing at the bottom paragraph of a page 5 filler:

“Both in the Commons and out on the road, the self-assured Tory leader shows that she is no longer finding her feet – but setting the pace”

After a year of wondering where the promise of Renewal 2030 had got to, Badenoch has shown herself, particularly dealing with big betrayals in her own Tory ranks, to be tough enough not only to shore up her own position but wreak havoc on the Government in the process.

So champers all round then? Any Conservative tempted should cork it.

If the narrative today is that Starmer is at serious risk post May local elections which are now, if they weren’t already, a referendum on his premiership – and he hasn’t gone already – make no mistake the risk of brutal results for the Conservatives has not gone away.

Badenoch may have seen off any post-May Jenrick challenge, and will now survive a battering, it will make something stark. A personal win and improved public standing is great for a leader to have, but it doesn’t mean the brand is back. And Reform if they do as expected will be there screaming that from the roof tops.

She can push as hard as possible for renewal of Tory fortunes, but it is not a given that they will match her own. She can be seen like some doggedly determined fighter pilot of yore, an impressive tally of scalps painted on her plane, and still face watching the party fail to take off.

Sticking with the economy, where Reform is still weak – as the Shadow Chancellor will explain for readers tomorrow – stick to opposing Government relentlessly as the official opposition should, is all good strategy, but the Conservatives – not Badenoch – are still struggling for a hearing.

Too many of the public have moved from anger and rejection to indifference towards the Party. Liking the ‘cut of Badenoch’s jib’ doesn’t mean they’ll vote Conservative, yet. Or again.

We still need more policy to chew on from the promised ‘red meat’ restaurant, more fighting contribution from the ‘team’ the leader is always keen to promote, more sense that ‘business as usual’ has been firmly discarded and that the ‘as usual’ bit has been confined to the past, with genuine contrition for what was bad.

Mandelson may end up dragging Starmer down with him, and I for one won’t cry for his loss, but on the ground, on the doorstep and in the streets of places far from the drama of Westminster, no committed Conservative must think this alone will put them back in play.