Lord Ashcroft: Burnham compared to Starmer, should there be an election, and what do we think of Restore Britain?

Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC is an international businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. For more information on his work, visit lordashcroft.com

 My latest poll looks at expectations of Andy Burnham, whether there should be a leadership election, when the next general election should happen, the most important issues facing the country and voters’ attitudes to Restore Britain.

What did Starmer do?

We asked respondents to name, unprompted, anything they can remember the Labour government doing since it was elected in July 2024. Top of the list this month was lifting the two-child benefit cap, very slightly ahead of means-testing the winter fuel allowance, which has dominated recollections for the last eighteen months. Employers’ National Insurance and workers’ rights are next on the list.

Our political map shows which parts of the electorate are most likely to mention different government actions. The two-child benefit cap and the winter fuel allowance both appear close to the centre of the map, showing that they were widely recalled across voter types. The minimum wage, NHS waiting lists, renewable energy, the social media ban and staying out of the Iran war were most likely to be recalled in Labour and Lib Dem-supporting territory, while Israel and disability benefits were most likely to be mentioned close to the Greens’ centre of gravity in the bottom left. Tax, migration, defence and the economy were most likely to be mentioned on the Conservative or Reform-leaning right-hand side of the map.

Since we have asked this question every month since January 2025, we can see the most recalled actions of the Labour government over the last 18 months.

Andy Burnham and the Labour leadership

Overall, voters said they would like to see a contested leadership election by a 50 per cent to 27 per cent. However, 2024 Labour voters said they would like to see Burnham become PM without a leadership election by a 7-point margin, and current Labour leaners by a 26-point margin.

 A clear majority said there should be a general election within a year or so of the new PM taking office. Four in ten voters said he or she should call an election as soon as practically possible, with a further 19 per cent saying there should be an election in the next year or so. Just over a quarter, including more than half of 2024 Labour voters and 63 per cent of those currently leaning towards Labour, say there is no need for an early election and the government should continue until 2028 or 2029.

 More than four in ten voters said they thought Burnham was more left-wing than Starmer – more than twice the proportion who thought they had similar political views. Current and 2024 Labour voters were more likely than most to see Burnham as being further to the left. Nearly four in ten said they didn’t know whether his political views stood in relation to Starmer’s.

 Voters as a whole were more likely to think Burnham would perform about the same as Starmer in each policy area than to think he would do either better or worse. They were more likely to think he would do a better job than a worse job on the economy, the NHS, the cost of living, crime and policing, and running the country in general. They were more likely to think he would do a worse job than a better job on immigration, government borrowing and debt, setting tax rates at the right level, defence, and Britain’s relationships with other countries.

A majority of all voters said the new PM should feel bound by Labour’s 2024 manifesto promises on income tax, National Insurance and VAT. Current and 2024 Labour voters were also more likely than not to take this view.

Most important issues facing Britain

The cost of living was rated the most important issue facing the country, with half of all respondents choosing it in their top three. Among voters as a whole this was followed by immigration and asylum, the NHS and social care, and the economy and jobs. For 2024 Labour voters, the NHS was second after the cost of living, followed by climate change and the environment. Immigration and asylum topped the list for current and 2024 Conservative and Reform UK voters. National security and defence was the second most important issue to 2024 Tories, ahead of the cost of living.

Asked who would do the better job running the economy, 33 per cent of voters said a Labour government, 20 per cent said a Conservative government and 18 per cent said a Reform UK government. Just over two thirds of 2024 Labour voters said a Labour government would do the best job, while 62 per cent of 2024 Conservatives named the Tories (and nearly one in five of them named Reform UK).

Restore Britain

Just over one in ten said they like a lot of what Restore Britain stand for and might well vote for them next time. This included nearly four in ten Reform voters from 2024 and more than a quarter of those currently leaning towards Reform. A further 14 per cent say they probably wouldn’t vote for Restore but they say things that need saying so they’re glad the party is around. Just under four in ten say they don’t like what Restore stand for and would never vote for them. A quarter say they have never heard of Restore Britain. Of those who say they might well vote for Restore Britain, 33 per cent are currently leaning towards Reform, eight per cent towards the Conservatives, and 25 per cent towards another party.

For those interested in Restore Britain, the most appealing factors were that “they have more radical policies on things like migration and repatriation” and “they want to keep Britain British”. Cutting taxes and welfare benefits and forcing other parties to pay attention to important issues were the next biggest attractions.

 The political map

Our political map shows how different issues, attributes, personalities and opinions interact with one another. Each point shows where we are most likely to find people with that characteristic or opinion; the closer the plot points are to each other the more closely related they are. Here we see how different kinds of voters see the most important issues facing the country, how soon people would like to see a general election once the new prime minister is installed, and where we are most likely to find different views of Restore Britain.

 Leadership ratings, best prime minister and next general election

Equal numbers said they had a favourable view of Kemi Badenoch and Andy Burnham, though Badenoch’s unfavourability score was higher than Burnham’s. Nigel Farage had the next highest positive rating, but with negatives of 63 per cent. In order of net scores, the results were Burnham (-9), Davey (-13), Badenoch (-15), Lowe (-20, but with 42% saying ‘don’t know’), Polanski (-23), Starmer (-39), Farage (-41).

When we asked who would make the better prime minister, Burnham led Badenoch by eight points. 2024 Labour and Conservative voters were equally likely to choose their respective party leaders. Last month, Badenoch led Starmer by one point (32 per cent to 31 per cent).

Given a choice between Burnham and Farage, voters as a whole chose Burnham by a 26-point margin. Last month, Starmer led Farage by 18 points.

 Offered a choice between Burnham, Badenoch and Farage, voters chose Starmer over Badenoch by an 18-point margin (compared to Starmer’s 14-point lead last month) with Farage third on 17 per cent.  More than seven in ten Labour voters preferred Burnham (compared to 65 per cent who preferred Starmer last month).

Andy Burnham has taken over from Nigel Farage as the leader voters consider most likely to be PM after the next general election. 33 per cent named Burnham, with 20 per cent naming Farage (down from 27 per cent) last month. Just under two thirds of those currently intending to vote Reform thought Farage would be PM (down from 74 per cent last month), while 65 per cent of Labour leaners expect Burnham to be PM (more than three times the proportion who last month expected Starmer still to have the job).

We ask people how likely they are to vote for each party at the next election, rather than which party they would pick in a hypothetical election tomorrow. Those who voted Labour in 2024 put their chances of doing so again at the next election at an average of 48/100. They put their chances of voting Green at 25/100. Those who switched to Labour in 2024 put their chances of voting for the party again next time at 36/100, and those who switched from the Conservatives to Labour in 2024 put their chances of voting Labour again next time at an average of 30/100.

Looking at those more likely than not to vote for a particular party (those whose highest likelihood of voting for one party was at least 50/100), this implies vote shares of Reform UK 21 per cent, Conservative 21 per cent, Labour 21 per cent, Green 17 per cent, Lib Dems 9 per cent, Others 10 per cent.

Full data tables at LordAshcroftPolls.com

The post Lord Ashcroft: Burnham compared to Starmer, should there be an election, and what do we think of Restore Britain? appeared first on Conservative Home.

Source link